Dodgers got rid of Kemp b/c he was a clubhouse cancer....
Kemp is a selfish player who has no work ethic.
Kemp is a selfish player who has no work ethic.
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Ranking the closers
There are three elite closers in the game.
Across the past two seasons Greg Holland has been the best.
Holland: 129.1 IP, 1.32 ERA, .170 AVG, 193 SO, 38 BB, 6 HR
Chapman: 117.2 IP, 2.29 ERA, .145 AVG, 218 SO, 53 BB, 8 HR
Kimbrel: 128.2 IP, 1.40 ERA, .154 AVG, 193 SO, 46 BB, 6 HR
Save percentage
Holland: 93 of 98 (94.9 percent)
Kimbrel: 97 of 105 (92.4 percent)
Chapman: 74 of 81 (91.4 percent)
Who's 4th?
Reluctant to put Betances fourth because he's never closed, and I'm positive he'd be a great closer, but I think he's best suited as an 85 innings 2 inning type reliever rather than a babied 60 inning closer.
Girardi would be wise to split the closer/setup guy with Miller and Betances.
Jansen? Maybe, but he's on crutches.
Robertson? Reliable but will give up that home run ball.
Papelbon? Getting old, fastball tops out at 92mph now, his career is coming to an end.
Closer to keep an eye on.
Steve Cishek
I like him. Knock on Cishek is he has a crappy curveball.
Fact of the matter is, he's depenable and reliable.
Now that Miami has some sticks in the line up, his save total will increase.
Saved 39 out of 43 last season, not to shabby, and strikes out over a batter an inning.
Saved 34 in 2013, 39 in 2014, will save 42 this season.
Huston Street is a top ten closer.
Koji will have a bounce back year.
Trevor Hoffman too.
Benoit?
Remains to be seen in SD, but he has proven he can get the job done.
He's also proven he can be a gas can too.
Casilla walk too many batters.
Rondon is a giant question mark, and I'm not sure he's going to close.
Cody Allen is a question mark?
Melancon could be a good one.
Nathan is finished, stick a fork in him.
Like Nathan, when Feliz, Mejia, Addison Reed or Hawkins comes in, it's best to hide the women and children, because it's not going to be pretty.
Gregerson and Cecil are new closers, who knows?
There you have it.
There are only three elite closers in the game right now.
(I'll break down the entire bullpens for all the teams, but I don't have all sorts of free time, but I'll get to it)
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Closer report/bullpen
Team Closer Next in line Stealth Looming ARI Addison Reed Brad Ziegler Evan Marshall Matt Stites ATL Craig Kimbrel Jim Johnson Jason Grilli Shae Simmons BAL Zach Britton Darren O'Day Tommy Hunter Brian Matusz BOS Koji Uehara Edward Mujica Junichi Tazawa Heath Hembree CHC Hector Rondon Pedro Strop Jason Motte Neil Ramirez CHW David Robertson Zach Duke Jake Petricka Zach Putnam CIN Aroldis Chapman Jumbo Diaz Sam LeCure J.J. Hoover CLE Cody Allen Bryan Shaw Scott Atchison Nick Hagadone COL LaTroy Hawkins Adam Ottavino Rex Brothers John Axford DET Joe Nathan Joakim Soria Al Alburquerque Bruce Rondon HOU Spring battle: Luke Gregerson, Pat Neshek, Chad Qualls, Josh Fields KC Greg Holland Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera Luke Hochevar LAA Huston Street Joe Smith Fernando Salas Cam Bedrosian LAD Joel Peralta Brandon League J.P. Howell Kenley Jansen (Inj.) MIA Steve Cishek A.J. Ramos Mike Dunn Aaron Crow MIL Francisco Rodriguez Jonathan Broxton Jim Henderson Will Smith MIN Glen Perkins Casey Fien Brian Duensing Caleb Thielbar NYM Jenrry Mejia Jeurys Familia Vic Black Bobby Parnell (Inj.) NYY Spring battle: Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller David Carpenter Adam Warren OAK Tyler Clippard Ryan Cook Eric O'Flaherty Sean Doolittle (Inj.) PHIL Jonathan Papelbon Ken Giles Jake Diekman Justin De Fratus PIT Mark Melancon Tony Watson Jared Hughes Antonio Bastardo STL Trevor Rosenthal Jordan Walden Matt Belisle Carlos Martinez SD Joaquin Benoit Kevin Quackenbush Dale Thayer Brandon Maurer SF Santiago Casilla Sergio Romo Jeremy Affeldt Jean Machi SEA Fernando Rodney Danny Farquhar Yoervis Medina Tom Wilhelmsen TAM Brad Boxberger Kevin Jepsen Grant Balfour Jake McGee (Inj.) TEX Neftali Feliz Kyuji Fujikawa Shawn Tolleson Roman Mendez TOR Spring battle: Brett Cecil, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, Steve Delabar WASH Drew Storen Casey Janssen Craig Stammen Blake Treinen Comment -
Perfect Avatar man. I always say never again and every year I am always stoked for opening day. Always check your MLB stuff. Going to visit fam this year and gonna catch one of Shields' starts with new look Padres.Comment -
good info as usual
looking forward to ur bullpen rankings =)Comment -
Marcus Stroman done for the year....unbelievable. Was really looking forward to seeing a full season with his kid up. I guess at least it wasn't an arm injury but sucks either way.Comment -
Saw an interview with James yesterday on MLB.tv
He's stoked to be home in Cali, and he's pumped to be pitching in the NL.
I love the guy, oh sure he's not an elite, but he represents everything good about MLB.
He puts in the grunt work, he never misses a turn, always smiling, and each and every teammate he ever played with loves him.Comment -
will you be sizing plays from 1-5x? Thank you!Comment -
Nasher I need some of your vast wisdom. I'm in a hitter only Fantasy baseball league. Homeruns & RBI's only. 33-35 teams 6 players/rounds serpentine and count only your 5 best scoring players. I need some "sleepers" or breakout players for the 4th-6th rounds that have the potential of getting me 100+ points(HR+RBI). 514 points took 1st place last year which was kind of low, usually 550-580 wins it. I had Trout at 7th overall last year and took 9th place but none of my other players broke 100 points(closest was Werth in 2nd rd). I have a min and can throw me out a few names to watch for in the late rounds would be much appreciatedComment -
Looking forward to your insight Nasher! Don't let the tards get you frustrated.
Is this Cashner's ytear in SD with hopefully a little offense?
Hated to see Vasquez go down in Beantown. He was an old school type at catcher.
Lets get em!!Comment -
Breaking down some props
The question is, will there be a 50 save reliever?Over 49½ saves <input id="editx" name="C_417" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +130 Under 49½ saves <input id="editx" name="C_418" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -160
The best closers in the game are Holland, I don't think KC will have a repeat year like last year, so I don't think there'll be enough save oppurtunities for him.
Next best closer is Kimbrel, same for the Braves, they are going to take a hit too this year, not enough save opps to reach 50 for Kimbrel. No.
Best chance is Chapman and his Reds, Chapman could save 50 or 51.
Drew Storen isn't good enough to save 50 for the Nats.
Jansen is on the DL, so he won't do it.
Have to go under, only one who has a chance is Chapman, but not laying the -160.
*Nobody saved 50 last year, in 2014 Johnson (Baltimore) and Kimbrel had 50 each.
The real question is, will there be a 22 game winner this year?Over 21 wins <input id="editx" name="C_413" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -115 Under 21 wins <input id="editx" name="C_414" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -115
21 gets a push.
The real question is will Kershaw win 22, because he is the only pitcher in this day and age can win 22.
(Maybe Price in Detroit, but that's it)
Last 22 game winner was Verlander with 24 in 2011 and Cliff Lee in 2008 with 22
Price or Kershaw should win 21 for a push, and there are others capable, not worth the six month tie up of funds though.
Pass
Best bet on the board.Over 43½ home runs <input id="editx" name="C_399" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +100 Under 43½ home runs <input id="editx" name="C_400" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -130
Word is the umpires are going to make the strike zone shorter this year, making the game more hitting friendly.
There are two in Toronto alone that can hit more than 44, Joey Bats and Encarnancion. Stanton can easily do it, Goldy in Arizona, Mike Trout can do it......
BEST BET! OVER 43.5
Another best bet.Over 213½ hits <input id="editx" name="C_405" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +105 Under 213½ hits <input id="editx" name="C_406" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -135
They are offering + money on 214 hits by any one hitter.
Unless I am missing something here, this is easy money.
Altuve had 223 last season, and with the exception of 2013, there was 213 hits by a player in every season from 1996 to 2013.
Trout can do it, Altuve can do it again, most speed/contact hitters can do it.
YES ! over 213.5
Over 264½ strikeouts <input id="editx" name="C_419" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> +130 Under 264½ strikeouts <input id="editx" name="C_420" size="4" style="font-size: 1em; font-family: Tahoma, Verdana, Arial, sans-serif; color: rgb(68, 68, 68);"> -160
Even with a shorter strike zone, Price can strike on 271 again like last year.
So can Kershaw, remember he missed 7 starts last season.
Plenty of flame throwers can reach 265 K's.
Yes on that.
Chapman is 11 to 1 to win the save crown.
Putting 20 on that to win 220
And putting 100 to win 105 on over 213.5 hits for the hit crown.
(can't bet everything I like, these are 6 month long bets)Comment -
St. Louis +105 over Chicago Cubs
St. Louis Cardinals +105 over Chicago Cubs
(Wainwright v. Lester)
1) With the exception of newly acquired Heyward and Matt Adams, Cardinals hit LHP well.
Holliday smokes LHP.
2) This is not the Cubs best lineup.
Fowler
Soler
Rizzo
Castro
Coghlan
Olt
Ross
Lester
LaStella
(interesting-Lester batting 8th)
After you get past Castro, the second half of that iineup is horse shit
3) Cards have the better bullpen.
Cards line up is superior, pitching matchup is a wash, Cards have the better bullpen.
I'm getting +105, reduced juice 5D
2* gets 210
St. Louis over ChicagoComment -
For anyone interested in not falling into the blackhole that is streakiness or batter/pitcher matchups.
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A HvP matchup is relevant when there is a history of the two after 25-30 at bats.
A hitter that is 12 for 63 for instance lifetime against a particular pitcher will more than likely go 1 for 5 more times than he will go 3 for 4 against him.
Now, if a hitter is 3 for 5 against a pitcher, that is pretty much not a relevant stat, not a big enough sample size.
But, if there is a substantial sample size, like 12 for 63, to ignore that is just foolish.Comment -
Wow just heard Pads got Kimbrel from Atl in a deal! Bol this season Nasher as always.Comment -
Go Cards!!!Comment -
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Have another great season Nash....BOLComment -
Nash been eating well the past two days. He's probably have crab legs and Budweiser tonightComment -
Let's go to the numbers. Back of the napkin right here, so not taking into account weather, handedness, parkfactors, etc. Stanton's 3yr K rate is 28%. Teheran's is 22%. League average is roughly 18% IIRC. Odds ratio says that in this matchup, there should be a K 33.3% of the time. Over 21 AB's, that's 7 expected K's, which is exactly the amount of K's there has been in this matchup
Going to AVG, Teheran L3 years is .230. Stanton is .280. League average is .253. Again, odds ratio says expected number of hits over 21 AB's is 5.3. Stanton has 2. Considering how much randomness there is on BIP, I will hardly change my opinion of Stanton and say he's a league average (or below) batter against Teheran.
WRT walks, Stanton is expected to have walked 2.2 times in 25 PA's. He's actually walked 4.
So yes, I am saying that over the 6 games against Teheran, randomness happened and that I will instead base my projection for Giancarlo during this game against ATL on his 1,643 PA's since 2012 against all pitchers rather than the 21 he's had against Teheran.Last edited by EXhoosier10; 04-05-15, 09:32 PM.Comment -
First off, I never said BvP is the be all end all.
Secondly it's not even my go to stat when I handicap, but it should not be ignored.
Now, Teheran has lost a litttle velocity, 1.1 mph to be exact, so maybe Stanton will catch up to him.
Just because I said I liked the under, and even Stanton struggles against him, doesn't mean it's because of that one stat.
Alveraz is a ground ball pitcher, had a nice season last year inducing ground balls, that's a big part why I like the under, 5 factors why I like the under tomorrow, one of them is not the Stanton stat, however it should not be ignored.
Now, what does this suggest to you?
Nelson Cruz is 15 for 71 lifetime versus J Weaver .211, and he struck out 22 times.
That doesn't mean anything to you?Comment -
Jack Daniels and Becks, and I am proud to say I am drinking responsibly.
And, if the Cards hold on, and I don't care if one believes me or not, I will be 9 an 1 for the weekend.
Nasher on a major heater right now.
"too hot, called a police and the fireman, so hot, make a dragon wanna retire man"Comment -
great work Nasher!! Any leans you really like for tomorrow?Comment -
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2 Plays and a big underdog lean for 4/6
All lines 5D and 5D reduced juice.
PLAYING
SF with Bumgarner +125 -1.5 on the run line.
I'll play a run line when there's an elite pitcher on the road against an inferior opponent.
Collmenter literally has to match Mad-Bum pitch for pitch just to stay in this game, and hopes Goldschmidt and his pals get to the World Series hero.
Even without Pence and Panda, SF has enough bats to ding Collmenter.
Two bats Mad-Bum needs to keep at bay, Goldy and Trumbo.
The bottom of that order is soft.
*buyer beware a 3-2 or 2-1 Giants win is a loss, but I don't like laying -140 here, I could use SF in a money line parlay, but I'll take my chances here, Giants on the road though get an ninth inning at-bat, that's an advantage of betting a run line with your team on the road.
PLAYING
White Sox with Samardzia over Royals and Ventura.
Yes, Ventura throws 100 mph, however there is not much movement on the fastball, and the 20 percent strike out rate proves that.
Abreu knows what to do with cheese that does not move much, White Sox lineup is so much better now with Adam Eaton on top, if the White Sox are going to make some noise this year, and I think they will, that pest Adam Eaton leading off is going to make it happen.
Samardzia should keep the Royals bats in check.
Hey, I was the bus driver for the Royals band wagon last season, however, Samardzia is the play here with Eaton and Melke hitting in front of Abreu, and A-Ram down in the order makes for tough navigation.
BIG UNDERDOG LEAN
Mets over Washington.
Nobody is saying Colon is better than Max.
Hardly, Colon may be fat, he may be 40 years old, but one thing he knows is how to pitch.
The time to fade Washington is now, the first two weeks, they are without Rendon, and Jason Werth, and that lineup with injuries in plain old ordinary. (it really is, take a look at it)
Mets have some sticks, they are not going to win batting crowns, but Murphy is a slappy .280-.290 guy.
David Wright has regained his from, Duda is a legit 30 homer threat, the catcher is coming into his own, and the SS Flores is supposed to be the next big thing.
I can see the Metropolitans at +160 stealing the opener down there with a depleted Nat lineup.
It will take a sharp Colon and a Max mistake or two, but it's not out of the question.
Not suggesting you play it, just putting it out there.
More later, I have to do real life things now.Comment -
what line do you have on the sox, that looks good to meComment
