Soccer Picks

[Rudeboy]

6/26

Jelgava (LAT-V) Over 2½ -125 2u Play
Mattersburg (Friendly) Over 2½ -150 2u Play
Pakhtakor Tashkent (UZB-PFL) Draw +240 3u Play

[camelbreath$]

6/25

Din Zagreb (Friendly) Over 2½ -150 2u Play -3.00
JJK (FIN-Y) Over 2 -105 +1.00
Bolivia (Copa America) +416 3u Play -3.00

YTD W295-L294 +14.62u

DAMN last time I visited this thread you were up nearly 30 units now down to +14? Eesh

[Rudeboy]

DAMN last time I visited this thread you were up nearly 30 units now down to +14? Eesh

Thats part n parcel my friend

As long as you stay in the game and see the light at the end of the tunnel

[Rudeboy]

6/26

Jelgava (LAT-V) Over 2½ -125 2u Play
Mattersburg (Friendly) Over 2½ -150 2u Play
Pakhtakor Tashkent (UZB-PFL) Draw +240 3u Play
Tallinna Infonet (EST) Over 2½ -115

[smoke a bowl]

6/26

Jelgava (LAT-V) Over 2½ -125 2u Play
Mattersburg (Friendly) Over 2½ -150 2u Play
Pakhtakor Tashkent (UZB-PFL) Draw +240 3u Play
Tallinna Infonet (EST) Over 2½ -115

That's cool Rudy but what about the International competitions that we are all interested in?

[Rudeboy]

6/26

Jelgava (LAT-V) Over 2½ -125 2u Play -2.50
Mattersburg (Friendly) Over 2½ -150 2u Play +2.00
Pakhtakor Tashkent (UZB-PFL) Draw +240 3u Play -3.00
Tallinna Infonet (EST) Over 2½ -115 +1.00

YTD W297-L296 +12.12u

[Rudeboy]

6/26

Colombia (Copa America) +453 4u Play

[jihadvillager]

Rudes got balls the size of grapefruits

[adila1401]

Valencia is out with injury..gonna be very tough for midfield to do anything and on top of that their strikers have been terrible Rude..BOL nonetheless!

[Rudeboy]

[Rudeboy]

6/26

Colombia (Copa America) +453 4u Play -4.00

YTD W297-L297 +8.12u

[johnyjohnson]

Rudes got balls the size of grapefruits

rudes got airbets bro like he slipped in one of his posts would be shocked he had screenshot

[leetreaper]

rudes got airbets bro like he slipped in one of his posts would be shocked he had screenshot

It was pretty obv as soon as he started to bet more than a unit, was doing well before, greed and chasing killed him.

[smithah2]

rudes got airbets bro like he slipped in one of his posts would be shocked he had screenshot

this is an awful sentence. structurally awful

[fitguy67]

rude's picks are solid...if you don't have a stomach for big $-swings like me, then use common sense and just ignore the bet-size variation...i bet everything to WIN 1 measly unit (not risk for dogs, win for faves...everything to win...minimizes variance greatly) and i've done very well since i started tailing a while back...

for example, today 2-3, +0.1u...

if Ruder likes to swing a big bet-size differential, let him...it's his money...the plays are solid +$growth over time if you play everything flat is what i'm saying...variance is smaller (less $ upswing on the days, but much lower on the losing days, as well...balance out but with much lower blood pressure along the way)...

the big drop over the last while is mostly due to the bet-sizes magnifying a fairly modest drop...it's what happens if you wanna start playing some at 4 and 5 times others...double-edged sword and just as 30 can become 10 quickly, so it can zap to 30 and beyond in just a few-day hot spell as we've seen many times in the past...

so keep posting the plays, Ruder...and the bet-sizes you recommend...but just ignore all the idiots who follow along with your bet-sizes BLINDLY and then try blame you for their performance...bet-sizes are a personal thing and gotta depend on your tolerance for $-swings (always ask yourself if you can REALLY handle going "oh for..." on the day...if not, lighten up...it's your roll, nobody else's)
_______

ignore the prikks that love to show up only when there's a grave to stomp on...and keep posting your plays for the many who appreciate them a lot

[smithah2]

looking forward to tomorrow as always

[Rudeboy]

rude's picks are solid...if you don't have a stomach for big $-swings like me, then use common sense and just ignore the bet-size variation...i bet everything to WIN 1 measly unit (not risk for dogs, win for faves...everything to win...minimizes variance greatly) and i've done very well since i started tailing a while back...

for example, today 2-3, +0.1u...

if Ruder likes to swing a big bet-size differential, let him...it's his money...the plays are solid +$growth over time if you play everything flat is what i'm saying...variance is smaller (less $ upswing on the days, but much lower on the losing days, as well...balance out but with much lower blood pressure along the way)...

the big drop over the last while is mostly due to the bet-sizes magnifying a fairly modest drop...it's what happens if you wanna start playing some at 4 and 5 times others...double-edged sword and just as 30 can become 10 quickly, so it can zap to 30 and beyond in just a few-day hot spell as we've seen many times in the past...

so keep posting the plays, Ruder...and the bet-sizes you recommend...but just ignore all the idiots who follow along with your bet-sizes BLINDLY and then try blame you for their performance...bet-sizes are a personal thing and gotta depend on your tolerance for $-swings (always ask yourself if you can REALLY handle going "oh for..." on the day...if not, lighten up...it's your roll, nobody else's)
_______

ignore the prikks that love to show up only when there's a grave to stomp on...and keep posting your plays for the many who appreciate them a lot

[Rudeboy]

6/27

Denmark U21 (UEFA-Cham) Draw +229 4u Play
Brondby (Friendly) Over 2½ -135 2u Play
Brazil (Copa America) -1½ +180 3u Play

[camelbreath$]

6/27

Denmark U21 (UEFA-Cham) Draw +229 4u Play
Brondby (Friendly) Over 2½ -135 2u Play
Brazil (Copa America) -1½ +180 3u Play

Betting Brazil to win by 2 goals... Neymar is suspended and their results in Copa America have been 2:1 over Peru, a 0:1 loss to Colombia and 2:1 win over Venezuela. That's bold! good luck

[fitguy67]

6/27
Brazil (Copa America) -1½ +180 3u Play

Betting Brazil to win by 2 goals... Neymar is suspended and their results in Copa America have been 2:1 over Peru, a 0:1 loss to Colombia and 2:1 win over Venezuela. That's bold! good luck

excerpt from "essential mathematics of gambling"

betting "Brazil to win by 2 or more" at +180 does NOT require your belief that such result is "likely" (ie. has a probability of >50%)

on the contrary, to be part of a long-term $growth program, plays you take at +180 require only that the probability of the desired result exceed 35.71% (1/decimal-price = 1/2.8)...

this 35.71% figure for +180 bets is called the implied probability, and can be thought of as the winning percentage required to break-even over time if this bet were repeated countless times at identical stakes...to the extent that your actual hit-rate on the entirety of your +180 bets exceeds/falls short of the implied probability your profits/losses mount...

______________

the purpose of gambling is not predicting the future or making money on today's slate of bets...

it is placing bets that have "value"= have a % of cashing > % implied by the price...

the better you are at doing this, over the long haul, the better you will do...

_____________

so as long as the concerns you raised don't lower Brazil's chances (of surprising us with a 2+ goal victory) below 35.71%, the bet is money...TBH, most "likely" not tonight...but certainly it's money over time...as the few surprise ticket-cashings will more than compensate the more-frequent unsurprising losses...it's that 80% bonus payout on those surprise wins that make the difference

[camelbreath$]

excerpt from "essential mathematics of gambling"

betting "Brazil to win by 2 or more" at +180 does NOT require your belief that such result is "likely" (ie. has a probability of >50%)

on the contrary, to be part of a long-term $growth program, plays you take at +180 require only that the probability of the desired result exceed 35.71% (1/decimal-price = 1/2.8)...

this 35.71% figure for +180 bets is called the implied probability, and can be thought of as the winning percentage required to break-even over time if this bet were repeated countless times at identical stakes...to the extent that your actual hit-rate on the entirety of your +180 bets exceeds/falls short of the implied probability your profits/losses mount...

______________

the purpose of gambling is not predicting the future or making money on today's slate of bets...

it is placing bets that have "value"= have a % of cashing > % implied by the price...

the better you are at doing this, over the long haul, the better you will do...

_____________

so as long as the concerns you raised don't lower Brazil's chances (of surprising us with a 2+ goal victory) below 35.71%, the bet is money...TBH, most "likely" not tonight...but certainly it's money over time...as the few surprise ticket-cashings will more than compensate the more-frequent unsurprising losses...it's that 80% bonus payout on those surprise wins that make the difference

But I'm on Brazil -1 +136 so a 1 goal win and I recollect my original wager. So -1.5 at +180 is lacking your perceived value

[camelbreath$]

______________

the purpose of gambling is not predicting the future or making money on today's slate of bets...

it is placing bets that have "value"= have a % of cashing > % implied by the price...

the better you are at doing this, over the long haul, the better you will do...

_____________

The purpose of gambling in this context is wagering monetary funds on an uncertain outcome. So it is exactly that... predicting the future of an event.

[fitguy67]

But I'm on Brazil -1 +136 so a 1 goal win and I recollect my original wager. So -1.5 at +180 is lacking your perceived value

yeah, I noticed that when i was placing it, -1 was the going rate, and i had to hit the pull-down box to get the -1.5 with the higher payout...

right now it's +113/+185 on the -1/-1.5...so Rude's play seems adequately compensated for the decreased likelihood of hitting...

but if you found +136 on the -1, you clearly got extra value in the form of having the "1-goal-win insurance policy " thrown into the ticket with a relatively small sacrifice in payout
______
...a big day for daBoys from Brazil!

[fitguy67]

The purpose of gambling in this context is wagering monetary funds on an uncertain outcome. So it is exactly that... predicting the future of an event.

agreed...it's clear we're on the same page that it's in the guaging of the probabilities of said future/uncertain events (and being able to discern good or bad "deals" on tickets based on them)...that's the key to success...

we are definitely perceiving/guaging/"predicting" the probabilities of the events stamped into the tickets we're considering

to be a smart gambler =
to be a smart shopper of tickets =
to insist on being adequately compensated payout-wise for the UN-likelihood of each purchased-ticket's cashing

[fitguy67]

more important issue, camel...who is that marvellous example to humanity in your avatar?

[leetreaper]

more important issue, camel...who is that marvellous example to humanity in your avatar?

You don't know who that is???

[camelbreath$]

more important issue, camel...who is that marvellous example to humanity in your avatar?

I'm sure you know who it is... the one and only Kate Upton. If you don't, google and enjoy your afternoon.

[fitguy67]

You don't know who that is???

no, not by name...looks very familiar...

my guess is it's a porn-star/model/actress (there once was a difference...just as there once were things lawyers,governments, etc. wouldn't do, lol)

ahhh...that's it: jason verlander's steady squeeze

[Rudeboy]

6/11

Soccer Copa America Futures Winner 2015 - Brazil +400 2u Play -2.00

6/27

Denmark U21 (UEFA-Cham) Draw +229 4u Play -4.00
Brondby (Friendly) Over 2½ -135 2u Play -2.70
Brazil (Copa America) -1½ +180 3u Play -3.00

YTD W297-L301 -3.58u

[smithah2]

All part of the game. Still always looking forward to your picks! Cheers brother

[Rudeboy]

Taking a break and starting next season on July 15th GL men

[smithah2]

Take it easy cheers

[Rudeboy]

6/28

Neman Grodno Over 2½ +125
LDU Quito (ECU) +102

All plays 2u unless I specify otherwise.

[Rudeboy]

6/28

Neman Grodno Over 2½ +125 +2.50
LDU Quito (ECU) +102 +2.04

YTD W299-L301 +0.96u

[jihadvillager]

Long overdue! Nice! Can't keep a good man dowb