Arizona Wildcats only Cinderella in Sweet 16
Arizona Wildcats only Cinderella in Sweet 16
There were very few surprises to emerge from the first weekend of March Madness with all four No. 1s, 2s and 3s advancing to the Sweet 16. The Big East set a new mark with five schools remaining in the hunt for the title, and the Arizona Wildcats are the only Pac-10 squad left in the mix as a No. 12 seed. Josh Heytvelt and No. 4 Gonzaga look to take down Roy Williams' No. 1 seeded Tar Heels later this week.
Were you expecting anything less?
There’s a reason why the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament is the ridiculously big event everyone wants to follow. Thanks to the 64-65 team format, we’re virtually guaranteed our yearly dose of dramatic finishes and Cinderella stories.
Sharp handicappers also pad their wallets while the March Madness betting crowd rushes in. VCU (+8½) against UCLA in the first round wasn’t the most difficult pick in the world, especially if you had the Rams winning straight-up in your bracket.
Now we can turn our attention to the Sweet 16. It’s pretty chalky out there, even after the carnage of the first two rounds:
Thursday, Mar. 26
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut (7:07 p.m. ET)
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh (7:27 p.m.)
No. 3 Missouri vs. No. 2 Memphis (9:37 p.m.)
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 2 Duke (9:57 p.m.)
Friday, Mar. 27
No. 12 Arizona vs. No. 1 Louisville (7:07 p.m.)
No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (7:27 p.m.)
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 2 Michigan State (9:37 p.m.)
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina (9:57 p.m.)
We have all four No. 1s, 2s and 3s left on the board. Technically we have a Cinderella in No. 12 Arizona (21-13 SU, 20-13 ATS, No. 32 Pomeroy), but the glass slipper does not fit the Wildcats at all. This is a big-name Pac-10 program that still has life in it after Lute Olson. It may even live past Friday’s matchup with the Tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. The Cardinals (30-5 SU, 21-14 ATS, No. 4 Pomeroy) defense and Wildcats offense match up rather well, which means we could be in for an ugly game. Louisville throws bricks at the foul line, and the ‘Zona defense is so bad, it makes you want to cover your eyes. Anything can happen.
That’s one of four very big public games on the Sweet 16 slate. Missouri-Memphis, Syracuse-Oklahoma and Kansas-Michigan State will also draw tons of interest; Purdue-Connecticut looks like it’ll have less attention based on the slower action those teams have been pulling in over the last month. The Huskies (29-4 SU, 13-14 ATS, No. 2 Pomeroy) have responded to the market by covering both their early-round March Madness games, snapping out of a 1-6 ATS funk. Purdue (27-9 SU, 15-17 ATS, No. 18 Pomeroy) scored a mild upset over Washington (-1) in the Round of 32 to earn a much-needed payday for Boilers fans. This team went 3-7 ATS to close out the regular season.
Personally, I’ll be watching the game between Gonzaga and North Carolina. The early betting odds had the Tar Heels (30-4 SU, 13-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) favored by 8½ points with a total of 162½. It’s not surprising to see the Heels saddled with so much chalk after they blew out Radford (+25) 101-58 in the first round, then steamrolled LSU (+12½) 84-70 in the second. Yes, we’re still talking about a North Carolina team that went 2-7 ATS at the end of the regular season and laid an egg at the ACC tourney. But this line also says something about what the public thinks about Gonzaga: not much.
Let’s look again. The Bulldogs (28-5 SU, 15-15 ATS, No. 6 Pomeroy) are bona fide as far as their efficiency stats are concerned. Ken Pomeroy, however, has the ‘Zags rated more highly than some of his peers. For example, the Rothman power rankings place Gonzaga at No. 14 using a different methodology – North Carolina keeps its No. 3 spot. The Bulldogs also didn’t look nearly as dominant as UNC in Tournament victories over the Akron Zips (+13½) and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+11), both of whom got paid on the way out of the Big Dance.
Maybe some tougher competition is in order. The ‘Zags have only played one game all season as the underdog, beating Tennessee (-4) 89-79 in overtime. UNC, meanwhile, is 0-5 ATS this year when favored by between five and 9½ points inclusive. I have Gonzaga in my bracket as a contrarian pick, figuring that most people would automatically pencil in the Tar Heels, so I might be biased. Or it might be those fond memories of Adam Morrison’s mustache.
There were very few surprises to emerge from the first weekend of March Madness with all four No. 1s, 2s and 3s advancing to the Sweet 16. The Big East set a new mark with five schools remaining in the hunt for the title, and the Arizona Wildcats are the only Pac-10 squad left in the mix as a No. 12 seed. Josh Heytvelt and No. 4 Gonzaga look to take down Roy Williams' No. 1 seeded Tar Heels later this week.
Were you expecting anything less?
There’s a reason why the NCAA men’s basketball Tournament is the ridiculously big event everyone wants to follow. Thanks to the 64-65 team format, we’re virtually guaranteed our yearly dose of dramatic finishes and Cinderella stories.
Sharp handicappers also pad their wallets while the March Madness betting crowd rushes in. VCU (+8½) against UCLA in the first round wasn’t the most difficult pick in the world, especially if you had the Rams winning straight-up in your bracket.
Now we can turn our attention to the Sweet 16. It’s pretty chalky out there, even after the carnage of the first two rounds:
Thursday, Mar. 26
No. 5 Purdue vs. No. 1 Connecticut (7:07 p.m. ET)
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh (7:27 p.m.)
No. 3 Missouri vs. No. 2 Memphis (9:37 p.m.)
No. 3 Villanova vs. No. 2 Duke (9:57 p.m.)
Friday, Mar. 27
No. 12 Arizona vs. No. 1 Louisville (7:07 p.m.)
No. 3 Syracuse vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (7:27 p.m.)
No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 2 Michigan State (9:37 p.m.)
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 1 North Carolina (9:57 p.m.)
We have all four No. 1s, 2s and 3s left on the board. Technically we have a Cinderella in No. 12 Arizona (21-13 SU, 20-13 ATS, No. 32 Pomeroy), but the glass slipper does not fit the Wildcats at all. This is a big-name Pac-10 program that still has life in it after Lute Olson. It may even live past Friday’s matchup with the Tournament’s overall No. 1 seed. The Cardinals (30-5 SU, 21-14 ATS, No. 4 Pomeroy) defense and Wildcats offense match up rather well, which means we could be in for an ugly game. Louisville throws bricks at the foul line, and the ‘Zona defense is so bad, it makes you want to cover your eyes. Anything can happen.
That’s one of four very big public games on the Sweet 16 slate. Missouri-Memphis, Syracuse-Oklahoma and Kansas-Michigan State will also draw tons of interest; Purdue-Connecticut looks like it’ll have less attention based on the slower action those teams have been pulling in over the last month. The Huskies (29-4 SU, 13-14 ATS, No. 2 Pomeroy) have responded to the market by covering both their early-round March Madness games, snapping out of a 1-6 ATS funk. Purdue (27-9 SU, 15-17 ATS, No. 18 Pomeroy) scored a mild upset over Washington (-1) in the Round of 32 to earn a much-needed payday for Boilers fans. This team went 3-7 ATS to close out the regular season.
Personally, I’ll be watching the game between Gonzaga and North Carolina. The early betting odds had the Tar Heels (30-4 SU, 13-19 ATS, No. 3 Pomeroy) favored by 8½ points with a total of 162½. It’s not surprising to see the Heels saddled with so much chalk after they blew out Radford (+25) 101-58 in the first round, then steamrolled LSU (+12½) 84-70 in the second. Yes, we’re still talking about a North Carolina team that went 2-7 ATS at the end of the regular season and laid an egg at the ACC tourney. But this line also says something about what the public thinks about Gonzaga: not much.
Let’s look again. The Bulldogs (28-5 SU, 15-15 ATS, No. 6 Pomeroy) are bona fide as far as their efficiency stats are concerned. Ken Pomeroy, however, has the ‘Zags rated more highly than some of his peers. For example, the Rothman power rankings place Gonzaga at No. 14 using a different methodology – North Carolina keeps its No. 3 spot. The Bulldogs also didn’t look nearly as dominant as UNC in Tournament victories over the Akron Zips (+13½) and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (+11), both of whom got paid on the way out of the Big Dance.
Maybe some tougher competition is in order. The ‘Zags have only played one game all season as the underdog, beating Tennessee (-4) 89-79 in overtime. UNC, meanwhile, is 0-5 ATS this year when favored by between five and 9½ points inclusive. I have Gonzaga in my bracket as a contrarian pick, figuring that most people would automatically pencil in the Tar Heels, so I might be biased. Or it might be those fond memories of Adam Morrison’s mustache.