Thrree things stick out about tonight's MLB card

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  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65681

    #1
    Thrree things stick out about tonight's MLB card
    I believe Baltimore is primed to make a move.

    Even though I did not post it because I was busy with real life things like work and stuff, I made nice coin with the O's over Nuno because O's hurt LHP.
    Then yesterday the Japanese import did not phase them.

    Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz destroy LHP, made Nuno their personal meat puppets.
    Orioles looked good this weekend in NYC, and I think they will beat the White Sox 2 out of 3
    The series price isn't posted yet, but Sale is a good fade tonight.

    I'm fading Sale tonight, backing BALTIMORE +110

    Reasons to back Balty.
    1) They looked good against NYY this past weekend.

    2) Hardy is starting to heat up, if Cruz and Adam Jones remain hot, a hot Hardy with Chris Davis makes the top six in that line up tough outs.

    3)O's meat of the order hit LHP.

    4) White Sox offense strikes out the most in the AL not named Houston.

    5) White Sox offense does not hit LHP well. The Punch and Judy catcher Flowers does, Eaton hits LHP a little, but that's it, and those two are not game changers.

    6) Chen, while not as talented as Sale is a tought lefty.
    Across the board numbers are sound.
    7-2 3.78 ERA pitching in that division/league is fine, 1.24 WH/IP is sound, 60/80 K/IP ratio, all sound, not rock soild, but sound steady numbers.

    7) Won his last four decisions, not his fault 'pen let him down against TB, Oakland too.
    Got ND's in those games.
    Shut out Boston, (7 innings) Was sharp versus Oakland.

    8) I like home bow-wows

    BALTIMORE +110 2*


    Yankees go up to Canada for a three gamer versus Blue Jays.
    I like this kid Whitley, big league stuff, veteran poise for a kid, however, I think he gets raked tonight.
    Joey Bats is out but Encarncion has been mashing, and the rest of the lineup shoould get theirs tonight.
    Encarncion is on fire, nobody can keep him in the yard these days.

    I would play Toronto, except they have a gas can (yes, the term gas-can applies to starters too)
    Stroman is trash.
    Yanks will get some too.

    Game should sail over the posted nine runs even with out Bautista

    Tampa Bay is buried, however I like Cobb to get things rolling against Pitt in that dungeon of a ball park in Florida.
    Rays should make a minor move this week too, however they are too far back.
    Volquez should get shelled by that singles and doubles hitting Ray offense.

    Like Cobb tonight too, but not a ridiculous juice though.


    Baltimore is the play

    considering a Cobb -153/over 9 NYY parlay
  • Simon Gruber
    SBR MVP
    • 05-02-13
    • 2342

    #2
    keep fading the blue jays.
    Comment
    • stevenash
      Moderator
      • 01-17-11
      • 65681

      #3
      Originally posted by Simon Gruber
      keep fading the blue jays.
      They had their run, KC too.

      I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch
      Comment
      • mitch51
        SBR MVP
        • 05-15-12
        • 4587

        #4
        Thanks for these, Nash. Insightful, as always.
        Comment
        • You mad bro
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-15-12
          • 16641

          #5
          Originally posted by stevenash
          They had their run, KC too.

          I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch
          tonight will be no easy going of a game neither for KC
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65681

            #6
            Originally posted by You mad bro
            tonight will be no easy going of a game neither for KC
            The whole series.
            They need to show me something, or they are going to need another ten game run again
            Comment
            • RollinDo
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 09-04-13
              • 13322

              #7
              You're going with KC?
              Just locked in Dodgers. I am total fade material except on Unders at this point.
              Maybe I should play KC +1?
              Comment
              • konck
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 10-17-06
                • 12554

                #8
                Its hard to fade Sale he has only 1 start thats not quailty in his last 10 they are only hitting .171 vs him his whips are .075
                And you DO NOT get the free pass with this guy last 36 Inning his k's to walks is amazing 46 k's 3 walks and im not a
                Wei Yin Chen fan on top of all that If I bet against Sale I want more than ev But GL here Stevie usually is sharp sometimes
                you get that feeling
                All that being said I also dont like being on the public side against a guy who can pitch

                I really dont like the whole card today
                Comment
                • RollinDo
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 09-04-13
                  • 13322

                  #9
                  With Sale and Chen, I expect a low - scoring game through at least 7 innings.
                  Both teams are in bottom 5 in runs per inning vs lefties.
                  I like Under 4 (1st 5) instead of picking a side.
                  I would lean O's though in a tight game and bullpen adv with them.
                  Comment
                  • stevenash
                    Moderator
                    • 01-17-11
                    • 65681

                    #10
                    Originally posted by RollinDo
                    You're going with KC?
                    Just locked in Dodgers. I am total fade material except on Unders at this point.
                    Maybe I should play KC +1?
                    No, not KC
                    Baltimore.
                    Comment
                    • stevenash
                      Moderator
                      • 01-17-11
                      • 65681

                      #11
                      Originally posted by konck
                      All that being said I also dont like being on the public side against a guy who can pitch

                      I really dont like the whole card today
                      With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
                      And the card stinks today, you are right.

                      Cobb, not at 151 though
                      Comment
                      • konck
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 10-17-06
                        • 12554

                        #12
                        I do think the price is right on Whitley +113 though he has a nice arm nothing great.
                        When they made Stroman a starter he actually pitched well for 3 games then the last game
                        the Yankess really worked this kid The only real damage was a 2 run bomb by Gardner
                        But the pitch count was at 98 and he didnt get to finish the 4th. Stromans other 3 starts
                        are quality starts......Yanks worked him and didnt chase the low pitches this kid didnt give
                        up walks but that game he did 3 in 3 innings
                        Interesting game to say the least here but I will take plus money Stromans numbers are horrid
                        but mostly because of 2 relief innings he gave up 11 hits an 8 runs in 3 innings.
                        Still he is only 23 and I think the Yanks will be in his head I expect Stroman to throw strikes
                        early to combat what happened last time and the Yanks may jump on those early strikes
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #13
                          I don't understand the Balty line. It had me spooked. No reason for the O's to be home dogs against any pitcher given the guys surrounding Sale. Feel like the + number might be there for a reason.
                          Comment
                          • konck
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 10-17-06
                            • 12554

                            #14
                            Originally posted by stevenash
                            With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
                            And the card stinks today, you are right.

                            Cobb, not at 151 though
                            Ummm Balt going from +110 to +basically ev means the publicis betting Balt its like 58%-63% where I track
                            Comment
                            • No coincidences
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-18-10
                              • 76300

                              #15
                              Originally posted by stevenash
                              With reverse line movement Balty +110 down to +101 and public likes Sale
                              And the card stinks today, you are right.

                              Cobb, not at 151 though
                              You sure about that? I highly doubt there are more people backing the White Sox than the O's in this spot. I'd guess it's probably 50/50.
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                Too early to tell

                                Need to watch line movement

                                Pros do it
                                Comment
                                • konck
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 10-17-06
                                  • 12554

                                  #17
                                  I was just going to make a small rd robin tonight but if I see Nasher or Benny touting a game before I bet I wont bet against what they like
                                  Gotta give those guys capping credit (also throw Tdaddy in there)
                                  Comment
                                  • stevenash
                                    Moderator
                                    • 01-17-11
                                    • 65681

                                    #18
                                    You can get +200 Balty run line.

                                    Feeling here is, one of the two lefty killers (Cruz, Adam Jones) parks one, Balty wins by a crooked number.

                                    Oh and case you are wondering.

                                    Adam Jones v. LHP .391
                                    Nelson Cruz v. LHP .455
                                    Chris Davis has 13 LHP home runs (2013 - 2014)

                                    This is Chicago versus LHP
                                    Cuban Abreu is .171 on four of his 21 HR's have come from a lefty

                                    Comment
                                    • Simon Gruber
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 05-02-13
                                      • 2342

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by stevenash
                                      They had their run, KC too.

                                      I'm still on the KC bandwagon, but, they better win tonight, Kershaw tommorrow, and even if he's off, Kershaw is a tough son of a bitch
                                      I favor KC because at least they have a solid rotation. The Jays rotation is built on twigs and I don't see much in the bullpen either tbh. KC also has some solid bats like Gordon, Perez, and Cain.
                                      Comment
                                      • farmhouse1
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 02-14-14
                                        • 4377

                                        #20
                                        Sale vs chen... Sale will alwasy be favored over a rather unknow like chen.... But if you look at his numbers they are very impressive... Chris sale is alright i mean hes going to have a very tough time tonight going up against a very dangerous and power hitting orioles lineup.... Chen is a solod pitcher in my opinion and with that balty lineup ill fade sale tonight...
                                        Comment
                                        • Down_Goes Bookie
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 06-18-13
                                          • 422

                                          #21
                                          Chris Davis not in the Os lineup tonight.
                                          Comment
                                          • KRIT
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-11-14
                                            • 12878

                                            #22
                                            I agree with No Coincidences, I think O's may be a dog for a reason. Don't see any reason for them to be a dog, even with a stud pitcher like Sale going against them.
                                            Comment
                                            • spargament
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-22-09
                                              • 1739

                                              #23
                                              awesome write up. with you on the majority of these.
                                              Comment
                                              • spargament
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-22-09
                                                • 1739

                                                #24
                                                Uh, just one note actually. Reason that line is probably moving is because Chris Davis is a healthy scratch today for the Orioles. That under is looking better and better. Cruz, Jones and Hardy still gonna be threats, but I wanted to see Davis in that lineup too.
                                                Comment
                                                • Monitor-Tan
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-20-11
                                                  • 4460

                                                  #25
                                                  GL Nasher, also like Balty and Toronto.

                                                  Rasmus sitting at the 5 spot might be very dangerous
                                                  Comment
                                                  • stevenash
                                                    Moderator
                                                    • 01-17-11
                                                    • 65681

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Monitor-Tan
                                                    GL Nasher, also like Balty and Toronto.

                                                    Rasmus sitting at the 5 spot might be very dangerous
                                                    Thanks

                                                    35000 salary cap, I had to go cheap someplace
                                                    Went cheap with Schumaker.

                                                    The three Cards should do some damage I hope

                                                    P Alex Cobb
                                                    TAM v PIT
                                                    C Yadier Molina
                                                    STL @ COL
                                                    1B Matt Adams
                                                    STL @ COL
                                                    2B Skip Schumaker
                                                    CIN @ CHC
                                                    3B Todd Frazier
                                                    CIN @ CHC
                                                    SS Troy Tulowitzki
                                                    COL v STL
                                                    OF Colby Rasmus
                                                    TOR v NYY
                                                    OF Allen Craig
                                                    STL @ COL
                                                    OF Jayson Werth
                                                    WAS @ MIL
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Monitor-Tan
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-20-11
                                                      • 4460

                                                      #27
                                                      A lot riding on that STL/COL game for you, should be plenty of hits/runs to go around

                                                      Like Molina/Adams/Frazier/Rasmus.

                                                      Question for you Nasher, why Jason Werth? Any particular reason for cap space?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Monitor-Tan
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 02-20-11
                                                        • 4460

                                                        #28
                                                        Keep an eye out on that weather for the Rockies game, u don't want to have such high stack with questionable weather
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JMon
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 12-11-09
                                                          • 9800

                                                          #29
                                                          Balt is my fav play, bol nash
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Big Bear
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 11-01-11
                                                            • 43253

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by stevenash
                                                            I believe Baltimore is primed to make a move.

                                                            Even though I did not post it because I was busy with real life things like work and stuff, I made nice coin with the O's over Nuno because O's hurt LHP.
                                                            Then yesterday the Japanese import did not phase them.

                                                            Adam Jones and Nelson Cruz destroy LHP, made Nuno their personal meat puppets.
                                                            Orioles looked good this weekend in NYC, and I think they will beat the White Sox 2 out of 3
                                                            The series price isn't posted yet, but Sale is a good fade tonight.

                                                            I'm fading Sale tonight, backing BALTIMORE +110

                                                            Reasons to back Balty.
                                                            1) They looked good against NYY this past weekend.

                                                            2) Hardy is starting to heat up, if Cruz and Adam Jones remain hot, a hot Hardy with Chris Davis makes the top six in that line up tough outs.

                                                            3)O's meat of the order hit LHP.

                                                            4) White Sox offense strikes out the most in the AL not named Houston.

                                                            5) White Sox offense does not hit LHP well. The Punch and Judy catcher Flowers does, Eaton hits LHP a little, but that's it, and those two are not game changers.

                                                            6) Chen, while not as talented as Sale is a tought lefty.
                                                            Across the board numbers are sound.
                                                            7-2 3.78 ERA pitching in that division/league is fine, 1.24 WH/IP is sound, 60/80 K/IP ratio, all sound, not rock soild, but sound steady numbers.

                                                            7) Won his last four decisions, not his fault 'pen let him down against TB, Oakland too.
                                                            Got ND's in those games.
                                                            Shut out Boston, (7 innings) Was sharp versus Oakland.

                                                            8) I like home bow-wows

                                                            BALTIMORE +110 2*


                                                            Yankees go up to Canada for a three gamer versus Blue Jays.
                                                            I like this kid Whitley, big league stuff, veteran poise for a kid, however, I think he gets raked tonight.
                                                            Joey Bats is out but Encarncion has been mashing, and the rest of the lineup shoould get theirs tonight.
                                                            Encarncion is on fire, nobody can keep him in the yard these days.

                                                            I would play Toronto, except they have a gas can (yes, the term gas-can applies to starters too)
                                                            Stroman is trash.
                                                            Yanks will get some too.

                                                            Game should sail over the posted nine runs even with out Bautista

                                                            Tampa Bay is buried, however I like Cobb to get things rolling against Pitt in that dungeon of a ball park in Florida.
                                                            Rays should make a minor move this week too, however they are too far back.
                                                            Volquez should get shelled by that singles and doubles hitting Ray offense.

                                                            Like Cobb tonight too, but not a ridiculous juice though.


                                                            Baltimore is the play

                                                            considering a Cobb -153/over 9 NYY parlay
                                                            thanks Nasher you da man!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Big Bear
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 11-01-11
                                                              • 43253

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by Down_Goes Bookie
                                                              Chris Davis not in the Os lineup tonight.
                                                              vaganitis? how hard is it to play first base???
                                                              Comment
                                                              • mikmik
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 05-13-12
                                                                • 5457

                                                                #32
                                                                I jumped on balty last night. Made a thread but no response.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Big Bear
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 11-01-11
                                                                  • 43253

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by KRIT
                                                                  I agree with No Coincidences, I think O's may be a dog for a reason. Don't see any reason for them to be a dog, even with a stud pitcher like Sale going against them.
                                                                  yeah they are a dog b/c they are facing chris sale.

                                                                  Angels won and they were a dog facing Darvish.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • jay89
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 08-04-13
                                                                    • 671

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Betting against great pitchers like sale is never a solid bet, you just lay off and play another day. It's a long season folks, be patient and don't bet crazy on days with small cards
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • stevenash
                                                                      Moderator
                                                                      • 01-17-11
                                                                      • 65681

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Monitor-Tan
                                                                      A lot riding on that STL/COL game for you, should be plenty of hits/runs to go around

                                                                      Like Molina/Adams/Frazier/Rasmus.

                                                                      Question for you Nasher, why Jason Werth? Any particular reason for cap space?
                                                                      Hits Garza hard.
                                                                      Best option at 3200
                                                                      Other options are Polanco, Ludwick, or Stubbs.
                                                                      Comment
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