This is going to sound crazy, but...

[a4u2fear]

2 unit SO. This should be fun.

Yep, Detroit ruined it, but, not a big deal.

[a4u2fear]

I have a quick question. Does your model take into account injuries? That's a lot of juice to pay for a Crosby-less Pens team tonight...

Yes. But Calgary had a poor rating right now in the model, especially after a loss to the Sabres. More juice than I like without Crosby, but Calgary on the road for third straight game losing the first two brought them down enough where it was a play.

[a4u2fear]

Teams
29-15, +9.09u

Totals
29-31-6, -3.85u

[Slanina]

Any plays on the 1pm games? A nap is in my near future.

[a4u2fear]

TOR +100
PIT -120
CHI -125
DAL -140
NYR +130
NAS +105

PHI o5.5 +120
WAS o5.5 -105
BUF u5 -108
CBUS o5.5 +115
NYI o5.5 -105
COL u5.5 -120

[a4u2fear]

Teams
32-18, +8.94u

Totals
33-33-6, -1.63u

[a4u2fear]

Stuck in a small rut lately

CHI -191
NYR -135

TOR o5.5 +100
CHI u5.5 -135

[a4u2fear]

Teams
34-18, +10.94u

Totals
35-33-6, +0.37u

[bihon]

Teams
34-18, +10.94u

Totals
35-33-6, +0.37u

Glad to see totals turning green.
Very nice plays a4u2fear.

[matt711]

Great job

[matt711]

Just wondering how u grade a heavy favorite such as a 2-1 fav.......if it loses of course.......which u haven't had many losers......probably 2 units.....thanks for response

[a4u2fear]

Glad to see totals turning green.
Very nice plays a4u2fear.

, yea, may seem like an eternity, but it hasn't even been a full month. Started 11/26.

[a4u2fear]

Great job

Just wondering how u grade a heavy favorite such as a 2-1 fav.......if it loses of course.......which u haven't had many losers......probably 2 units.....thanks for response

Every bet is a wager bet for 1 unit, or on favorites - bet X to win 1, on dogs - bet 1 to win X

[a4u2fear]

We are betting Ottawa tonight, and getting a decent price due to Buffalo's recent play. Buffalo has cost us some money recently, but it doesn't change how poorly they have played. Getting outshot 2.5-to-1 and winning 7/10 games will not continue, and we'll get those units back.

Notice Pittsburgh has fallen out of favor as we are passing on them tonight.

OTT -135

PIT o5.5 +110
BUF u5 -105
NYI u5.5 -135

Hoping totals push over the hump more tonight.

Good luck.

[a4u2fear]

Just as an FYI,

In our most recent moving avg (tallied today, for time being), the worst home team is Edmonton, the worst road team is Calgary, best home team is tie between Philadelphia/Toronto/St. Louis, best road team is Tampa Bay (with Islanders and Blackhawks close).

Doesn't necessarily mean we'll bet those teams, as it depends on the opponent and the difference between the projected goals for each.

[Slanina]

Buffalo refuses to let an under hit when it's a play. Jeez.

[a4u2fear]

Buffalo refuses to let an under hit when it's a play. Jeez.

They were an under cash cow for a while, won't be in the future

[a4u2fear]

Pit or TB goal would be good here, could be 3-1

[Slanina]

Pit or TB goal would be good here, could be 3-1

Ask and you shall receive. Watching it on Pittsburgh broadcast and I had no clue if it was a goal because they acted like nothing.

[a4u2fear]

Bingo , come on Sens

[a4u2fear]

Sabres.......mother F

[a4u2fear]

Don't even know what to say, and I'm a sabres fan. They're terrible. Management said they're going for worst team to get Macdavid or Eichel and now they are 10-3 L13, going to end up 10-12 and get the same mediocre player who doesn't win you cups

[Lee Jones]

Nice. Definitely following

[a4u2fear]

Teams
34-19, +9.59u

Totals
37-34-6, +1.42u

[TankHankerous]

Keep at it man, looks promising!

[a4u2fear]

Keep at it man, looks promising!

[a4u2fear]

Lots of dogs tonight, biggest one of the season

CAR +186
WPG -217
NYR -119

PHI o5.5 -123
TOR o5.5 -114
MON u5 +105
DET o5.5 +125
WPG u5 +107
NAS u5 +104
CHI u5 +123
CAL o5.5 +134

[dblock05]

Hey man, I love your NHL thread and kind of interested to follow your picks. I don't know much about hockey and I am mostly a basketball/football guys.

My question is primarily with your team ML picks. To appropriately wager the correct amount...for example...if a unit for me is 50 bucks. Do I want to bet 50 bucks on every single ML pick regardless if its +235 or -235? Or do I want to wager every pick to win 50 bucks regardless if the ML is -200 and I would obviously have to bet a larger amount to get 50 bucks back.


I am still kind of a newbie at this so I really appreciate the help. I think your system looks very promising and would love to follow it!

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Hey man, I love your NHL thread and kind of interested to follow your picks. I don't know much about hockey and I am mostly a basketball/football guys.

My question is primarily with your team ML picks. To appropriately wager the correct amount...for example...if a unit for me is 50 bucks. Do I want to bet 50 bucks on every single ML pick regardless if its +235 or -235? Or do I want to wager every pick to win 50 bucks regardless if the ML is -200 and I would obviously have to bet a larger amount to get 50 bucks back.


I am still kind of a newbie at this so I really appreciate the help. I think your system looks very promising and would love to follow it!

if a unit for you is $50. don't bet $50 on every play pal. you're gonna bet ~$600 on a sport you're clueless about? c'mon man.

just bet $5 to $10 on each play and learn about the sport before you start betting $50.

[TrojanMan8]

Hey man, I love your NHL thread and kind of interested to follow your picks. I don't know much about hockey and I am mostly a basketball/football guys.

My question is primarily with your team ML picks. To appropriately wager the correct amount...for example...if a unit for me is 50 bucks. Do I want to bet 50 bucks on every single ML pick regardless if its +235 or -235? Or do I want to wager every pick to win 50 bucks regardless if the ML is -200 and I would obviously have to bet a larger amount to get 50 bucks back.


I am still kind of a newbie at this so I really appreciate the help. I think your system looks very promising and would love to follow it!

He recommends to bet 1 unit on dogs and to win 1 unit on favorites. Using a $50 unit with a -200 ML, risk $100 to win $50. With a +200 ML, risk $50 to win $100.

To follow up with what Genghis was saying, there could be days with 10-12 or more plays. You might want to adjust your unit size to whatever your bankroll can handle, especially if you bet NBA and/or NCAAB everyday.

[a4u2fear]

Just to add to the discussion, this isn't a 'try to go perfect' System, where plays are very selective and far between. It's a lot of picks, over 3/4 of the season. So, bet within reason and where you can handle a unit or two loss a day if it occurs. It will happen. But if I've learned anything about betting, the only way to be positive after a lot of bets is to always bet within your limits. I've gone on a 0-13 streak in NFL only to go 16-2 to follow it up, but most bettors would've been out during that stretch.

[a4u2fear]

Just got home from annoying shopping for Xmas, but looking like a sloppy day so far.

Seems like it but who knows, whenever there is a lot of picks, do poorly. I'm sure it just feels that way right now but won't in a month or two

[SlickRick1382]

Just got home from annoying shopping for Xmas, but looking like a sloppy day so far.

Seems like it but who knows, whenever there is a lot of picks, do poorly. I'm sure it just feels that way right now but won't in a month or two

Doesn't look that bad

Sides should be 2-1

Totals are going to slightly lose.

Basically breaking even, but not a loss...

[a4u2fear]

Teams
36-20, +10.59u

Totals
39-38-8, -0.47u

[Russian Rocket]

solid work here a4u