This is going to sound crazy, but...

**a4u2fear** · 12-21-14, 09:19 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

I'm tailing but I'm growing increasingly curious how it's picking plays. Detroit has been playing pretty bad last two weeks and 5 goals in 5 games going into tonight. Wallco's system had a C bet on Detroit as well. Ouch.

They were 5-1 prior to this run at home. And, four SO losses, so, maybe just some bad luck

**Slanina** · 12-21-14, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

They were 5-1 prior to this run at home. And, four SO losses, so, maybe just some bad luck

Yeah it's just their offense. Defense has given up more than 2 goals just once in last 9-10 games. Offense is sputtering even in the shootouts. They're an under machine right now.

**ToyotaLC** · 12-21-14, 09:32 PM

teams are going to cash, just the o/u giving fits.

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 04:52 PM

Teams
43-25, +10.93u

Totals
47-47-8, -2.35u

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 04:57 PM

Update:

Totals: I'm calling them "For Reference Only" for the next day or so until I can further review them.

Teams: We've made about 11 units in one month of betting. I'm sure some are frustrated lately, but just read the first line again. I wish we were +20 or more, but it just isn't feasible. Keep in mind, others may be + units, but may have made those units with a 3x or 5x play etc. We are betting 1 unit a game. Sure sometimes we are laying big juice, but I developed the system to understand the best team to bet on, at a price. Sometimes that price is high, sometimes it's low, just because sometimes we lose at -200 doesn't mean A) it wasn't the right bet and B) it won't profit long term. I've looked at the opposite scenario at betting the opponent at +175 or so in this scenario, and while it may win here or there, the long term profits from it were NOT there.

I hate giving out losers, but if you're looking for a daily dose of +1u to +5u winners, good luck finding it, because it won't be here, or anywhere else.

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 04:59 PM

NAS -150
ARZ +180

"For reference only", which likely means it will be 3-1 or 4-0 haha
CBUS o5 -125
VAN u5.5 -135
ANH u5.5 -120
LA u5 +111

**Slanina** · 12-22-14, 05:49 PM

Any idea where the prior years ML units stood going into Christmas break? Curious to see where it stood this year.

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 06:02 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Any idea where the prior years ML units stood going into Christmas break? Curious to see where it stood this year.

You're killing me smalls! I'm busy, ran it quick, +16.5 through 12/31 last year

**Slanina** · 12-22-14, 07:09 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

You're killing me smalls! I'm busy, ran it quick, +16.5 through 12/31 last year

Haha. You didn't have to do it. Just whenever you had time if you wanted to. Thanks though.

**ToyotaLC** · 12-22-14, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

You're killing me smalls! I'm busy, ran it quick, +16.5 through 12/31 last year

Like you keep saying a4, we'll get there!

**Slanina** · 12-22-14, 09:13 PM

Nice to see the day start with a win. Now bring it home Arizona

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

Like you keep saying a4, we'll get there!

**a4u2fear** · 12-22-14, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Nice to see the day start with a win. Now bring it home Arizona

Yup, go yotes

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 06:40 AM

Teams
44-26, +10.93u

Totals
49-49-8, -2.70u

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 10:53 AM

Got a feeling performance will pick up

PHI +176
NAS +132
DAL -139
NJ -148
PIT +135

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 01:54 PM

Personal play on Detroit -1.5 tonight. Sabres missing 4-5 key players. 1u -105

**ToyotaLC** · 12-23-14, 02:06 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

They were 5-1 prior to this run at home. And, four SO losses, so, maybe just some bad luck

They've burned us a couple times a4. Is your data suggesting a win? You haven't made a -1.5 pick before, is it all due to the Sabres missing players. Tempted to roll with you, and I predict a big closing night moving towards that +16 units before the new year.

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

They've burned us a couple times a4. Is your data suggesting a win? You haven't made a -1.5 pick before, is it all due to the Sabres missing players. Tempted to roll with you, and I predict a big closing night moving towards that +16 units before the new year.

The system isn't calling for Detroit at all. The Sabres are missing their captain, 2-3 forwards, and Myers. Detroit is getting Weiss back, and even though are on a losing streak, 4 came in SOs.

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 04:05 PM

Detroit has fallen out of favor with the system

**IrishLuck777** · 12-23-14, 07:03 PM

no more totals?

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by IrishLuck777

no more totals?

They are on hold, and there were like 10 plays and I was not in mood to post all of them

**ToyotaLC** · 12-23-14, 08:27 PM

Looks like Phil and NJ are the only shots tonight.

**Slanina** · 12-23-14, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

Looks like Phil and NJ are the only shots tonight.

Looks like Philly is only shot tonight. Ugh ouch

**ToyotaLC** · 12-23-14, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

Looks like Philly is only shot tonight. Ugh ouch

Yup, ouch is right. Lot of blow outs tonight, must be because of the Christmas break. I'm tempted to chase my losses with the College football game (SDSU V Navy)......but won't.

**a4u2fear** · 12-23-14, 09:55 PM

Yep, NHL is strange sometimes. Sabres were leading wings most of the game 3-1 yet being outshot 30-10 and Blues getting whooped along with Hawks to bad teams

stupid Nj blows late lead and loses in SO. I swear we are less than par on SOs lately

**Duckshit** · 12-23-14, 09:56 PM

The only thing "crazy", is that this thread still Exists...

**bihon** · 12-24-14, 05:43 AM

The last three days were tough accross the board.
It is just a normal drawdawn.

**simonrdr** · 12-24-14, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by Duckshit

The only thing "crazy", is that this thread still Exists...

No one is forcing you to play these picks man.
Why don't you post your own plays and stop complaining?

Of course, it's not as easy as tailing someone else, and complaining if it doesn't work out the way you want...

**ToyotaLC** · 12-24-14, 01:27 PM

a4u are you running the over/under numbers before action resumes Saturday? Just curious. Merry christmas, and thanks again for the pick suggestions.

**ToyotaLC** · 12-24-14, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by simonrdr

No one is forcing you to play these picks man.
Why don't you post your own plays and stop complaining?

Of course, it's not as easy as tailing someone else, and complaining if it doesn't work out the way you want...

Well said. I started with 75 bucks and I'm currently at 140 (even after a tough couple days) following a4u's picks. He is pretty clear, it is a long season and we aren't even half way through. Don't understand people that armchair criticize but couldn't make any better picks (or any better logic for picks).

**Trep** · 12-24-14, 01:59 PM

Also no one is getting paid to put picks or time into things....just be grateful people are sharing regardless if theyre winners or losers =P

**a4u2fear** · 12-26-14, 02:52 PM

hmm, how do I put this...this may sound weird, but it's what happened, and if you don't believe me then ok.

On 12/23, I was a little disappointed with how team plays had been going. So I went through all prior years worth of data and shortened the number of games included in my moving average. Results improved, by a decent amount. So, I listed plays on 12/23 with the new moving average (without tell you guys), 5 of them, and we had a poor night.

After double checking myself and this shortened moving average, I noticed that some of the data was incorrect and misleading. Turns out I never should have listed those plays. The original system only had DET/NAS/ARZ/DAL, still a losing night, but not nearly as bad as it was. I will not be adjusting the system going forward and apologize for doing so.

More bad news: the totals that were not listed for 12/23, went 5-2 for +3.12u.

Now since both errors (posting wrong plays and not posting totals) I am speaking about both play into my favor, I'm sure a lot won't believe me as both errors make me look better than worse.

Records will remain with the plays posted and not for errors, and I'm now currently looking at totals.

**a4u2fear** · 12-26-14, 02:56 PM

Teams
45-30, +7.82u

Totals
49-49-8, -2.70u

Personal Plays
1-0, +1.00u

**bihon** · 12-26-14, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

On 12/23, I was a little disappointed with how team plays had been going. So I went through all prior years worth of data and shortened the number of games included in my moving average. Results improved, by a decent amount.

The problem with this is that you optimized the results for total number of games. Usualy the right way is to do it only for the first part and applying the new way to the second part (or more). In case one obtains
the similar results, it can be (with some reserve) called as legitimate.

More bad news: the totals that were not listed for 12/23, went 5-2 for +3.12u.

It is actually good news. That means that your totals in testing period could be valid.

Records will remain with the plays posted and not for errors, and I'm now currently looking at totals.

You ML records are actually very in line with your testing period: yield around 10%.

**a4u2fear** · 12-26-14, 03:43 PM

Originally posted by bihon

The problem with this is that you optimized the results for total number of games. Usualy the right way is to do it only for the first part and applying the new way to the second part (or more). In case one obtains
the similar results, it can be (with some reserve) called as legitimate.

It is actually good news. That means that your totals in testing period could be valid.

You ML records are actually very in line with your testing period: yield around 10%.

Always good to have smart people around