This is going to sound crazy, but...

**Russian Rocket** · 11-09-14, 08:07 AM

Just as a side note:
The sharp increase that you see in units won column starting with a 10-11 season could be (or not) attributed to some of the rule changes that were introduces during that and the following years.

I can't remember exactly what rules were implemented, but I know that many of them were aiming at increase of offense and scoring.

**a4u2fear** · 11-25-14, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Russian Rocket

Just as a side note:
The sharp increase that you see in units won column starting with a 10-11 season could be (or not) attributed to some of the rule changes that were introduces during that and the following years.

I can't remember exactly what rules were implemented, but I know that many of them were aiming at increase of offense and scoring.

thanks for your thoughts, but even though rule changes may have occurred that adjusted the game, my system works off current year statistics and performance. It's not a regression determined off older data/games.

The system is a full go. Today no plays, but with 9 games tomorrow, I'm sure we'll find some.

**Dollars2Donuts** · 11-25-14, 06:18 PM

Interesting....I will be watching.

**BennyBigNuts** · 11-25-14, 06:46 PM

Seen millions of "systems" fail miserably and I have never even given 99% of them a 2nd look.
But this dude's a pretty decent capper.
I may tail a little or at least check back in to see how it starts out.

**BeanTownClown88** · 11-25-14, 06:50 PM

I have been doing something crazy with NHL too. I take the avg shots (all games, road/away, last 5 games) and multiply by the save % of the opposing goalie and use an average% based on the same criteria as I do shots. Then I subtract the shots from the product of Shots x Save% and that leaves me w/ a projected goal total from each team. Being selective I'm hitting over 60%..always like to hear how others do it

**dalogester** · 11-26-14, 12:27 AM

Why is this in the NFL forum? lol. Good luck tomorrow...

**keel44** · 11-26-14, 12:58 AM

It sounds like proportional betting would be best for this system.

**SmittyZ28** · 11-26-14, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by keel44

It sounds like proportional betting would be best for this system.

**CTOWNsCAPPIN** · 11-26-14, 06:28 AM

I'll be checking in here to see how this goes. BOL

**a4u2fear** · 11-26-14, 10:01 AM

Originally posted by BeanTownClown88

I have been doing something crazy with NHL too. I take the avg shots (all games, road/away, last 5 games) and multiply by the save % of the opposing goalie and use an average% based on the same criteria as I do shots. Then I subtract the shots from the product of Shots x Save% and that leaves me w/ a projected goal total from each team. Being selective I'm hitting over 60%..always like to hear how others do it

What about +/- units? 60% doesn't matter since NHL is all money lines. You could still be losing money.

**a4u2fear** · 11-26-14, 10:08 AM

Knowing the NHL I hate to start with so much chalk; especially with Chicago on the road, but system decides the plays.

All lines from 5dimes

WPG -150
PIT -195
DET -175
CAR +120
CHI -175

Prior year results are on thread page 1. If you don't like chalk, then take your risk with the puck lines. Most years, they perform just fine; but there are a few years where the results were negative.

It's unfortunate I do not have regulation lines in my data. I would assume they would positive as well since the puck lines are mainly positive.

**a4u2fear** · 11-26-14, 10:38 AM

ok, so even crazier, over the years listed on thread page 1, I went over totals (yea stupid how I hadn't looked at this performance before, but with the initial results I got tractor beamed in on that):

over the same stretch of years, playing under total goals, 1725 games, +336 units
over the same stretch of years, playing over total goals, 1886 games, +243 units.

So, going to track it as well. Less chalk, just as good as performance.

With totals - always get the best total goal line:

WPG/BUF u5 +102
PIT/TOR o5.5 -118
COL/CHI o5.5 -105
SJ/CAL u5.5 -122

All plays always 1 unit

**chipshipley** · 11-26-14, 10:49 AM

Are you betting 1 unit to win x
or x to win one unit?

**a4u2fear** · 11-26-14, 10:52 AM

Originally posted by chipshipley

Are you betting 1 unit to win x
or x to win one unit?

Wager 1 unit. Or on dogs, bet 1 to win x, favs, bet x to win 1

**dalogester** · 11-27-14, 01:15 AM

nice night, wish i woulda tailed them all. a4u2fear, you think you'll move this to NHL forum or just say fk it.. lol

**a4u2fear** · 11-27-14, 06:55 AM

I don't know how to move a thread to a forum. It started in handicapper think tank, then SBR moved it to player's talk.

It was a good start, one total lost by 1/2 goal and one game lost by one goal.

Totals
3-1 +1.97u

Teams
4-1 +3.00u

**a4u2fear** · 11-27-14, 06:59 AM

1 game today and no plays.

If you must force a game, the system was close to playing the under in the NHL game. Enjoy the turkey.

**frankzig** · 11-27-14, 08:40 AM

Nice Start

**chipshipley** · 11-27-14, 10:13 AM

nice night last night i tailed all plays and even sprinkled in a parlay on pens and over to make it more interesting since I'm from pittsburgh. Lets keep it up make lotsa manies!

**SlickRick1382** · 11-27-14, 12:34 PM

Just came across this, interesting thread. Good luck this season, definitely something interesting to watch out for..

Happy Thanksgiving

**brooks85** · 11-27-14, 12:39 PM

very cool, look forward to tailing, looks good

**bihon** · 11-27-14, 02:06 PM

Hopefully you'll keep sharing for a longer period.

**thetrinity** · 11-27-14, 02:39 PM

i will be following this system closely (first time i ever said that and was serious)

**lyon804** · 11-27-14, 07:21 PM

Nice start.

**DigBick86** · 11-27-14, 08:41 PM

Gonna follow this but i dont understand the system can you please explain it?

**a4u2fear** · 11-28-14, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by DigBick86

Gonna follow this but i dont understand the system can you please explain it?

The system is proprietary. The system is follow my picks. All results are posted on page 1 from prior years.

**a4u2fear** · 11-28-14, 10:49 AM

Initial results are good, even lean cashed yesterday, but that doesn't mean we are going to go positive every day. But as my historical results show, I am VERY confident we will be extremely profitable at YEAR'S END.

Teams YTD
4-1 +3.00u

CHI +100
STL -280
DAL -112

**chipshipley** · 11-28-14, 10:50 AM

Yes Sir! Anything for today?

just saw last post nvm
thx man

**TheLock** · 11-28-14, 10:50 AM

Will keep an eye on this but although I agree with HeeHawws initial take on this.

**a4u2fear** · 11-28-14, 10:53 AM

Totals YTD
3-1 +1.97u

lots of plays:
PHI o5.5 +113
WAS o5.5 +115
PIT o5.5 +100
CBUS o5.5 +108
NJ u5 -110
BUF u5 +100
STL u5.5 -120
DAL u5.5 -125

**dalogester** · 11-28-14, 04:13 PM

wow thats a LOT of juice on the blues. LEts get it!

**a4u2fear** · 11-28-14, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by dalogester

wow thats a LOT of juice on the blues. LEts get it!

yep. Oilers really struggling right now. But that doesn't mean we won't play them in a few games or weeks if their game picks up. Moving averages are used so we aren't evaluating teams on performances that are well out of date.

**a4u2fear** · 11-28-14, 06:51 PM

4 goals in first of wash, just need one more in third, would suck to lose this one like that

**cburland10** · 11-28-14, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

4 goals in first of wash, just need one more in third, would suck to lose this one like that

:-)

**23Edler_Salo6** · 11-28-14, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Initial results are good, even lean cashed yesterday, but that doesn't mean we are going to go positive every day. But as my historical results show, I am VERY confident we will be extremely profitable at YEAR'S END.

Teams YTD
4-1 +3.00u

CHI +100
STL -280
DAL -112

Damn wild tied it up with less than 2 mins to go. Stupid Dallas.

CHI W
STL W
DAL L

2-1

PHI o5.5 +113 L
WAS o5.5 +115 W
PIT o5.5 +100 W
CBUS o5.5 +108 L
NJ u5 -110 L
BUF u5 +100 W
STL u5.5 -120 L
DAL u5.5 -125 L

3-5