This is going to sound crazy, but...

**a4u2fear** · 11-29-14, 06:56 AM

yep. would've been nice if Dal pulled it out.

Teams going well YTD
6-2 +3.88u

Hate it when there are so many plays as there was with the totals, but it is what it is. So hard to hit 8 games as we went 3-5.
Totals YTD
6-6 -.43u

**a4u2fear** · 11-29-14, 09:28 AM

Teams:
PIT -185
CHI +115

Totals:
NYR u5.5 -117
BUF u5 -101
NAS under not yet listed
SJ under not yet listed

**cburland10** · 11-29-14, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Teams:
PIT -185
CHI +115

Totals:
NYR u5.5 -117
BUF u5 -101
NAS under not yet listed
SJ under not yet listed

You willing to lay the juice on the Pens?

**a4u2fear** · 11-29-14, 09:54 AM

Originally posted by cburland10

You willing to lay the juice on the Pens?

Do I like it? No. But, picking games with gut instincts and "looks appeal" over the years hasn't won me money. I am betting every game posted with confidence.

**a4u2fear** · 11-29-14, 10:36 AM

Nash u5.5 -130
SJ u5.5 -130

**23Edler_Salo6** · 11-30-14, 02:30 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Teams:
PIT -185
CHI +115

Totals:
NYR u5.5 -117
BUF u5 -101
NAS under not yet listed
SJ under not yet listed

teams went 2-0

totals went 1-3

**TheKLB** · 11-30-14, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by 23Edler_Salo6

teams went 2-0

totals went 1-3

I parlayed both your SU.

Also took a little side action on CHI

Thanks man.

**23Edler_Salo6** · 11-30-14, 03:37 AM

I'm not OP

**Dollars2Donuts** · 11-30-14, 04:27 AM

Hopefully it picks up....GL.

**a4u2fear** · 11-30-14, 06:25 AM

Teams YTD
8-2 +6.03u

Totals YTD
7-9 -2.91u

**a4u2fear** · 11-30-14, 06:27 AM

one play today
DET -116

Good luck.

**Romanov** · 11-30-14, 08:35 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

went through the games to find out if I could've gotten here by luck, so I found the avg puck line for my dog puck line bets and my fav puck line bets.

Avg Fav PL = +177
Avg Dog PL = -216

Results, using a binomial calculator, there was a 5% chance I could've just gotten lucky on the Fav PL results, but just a .3% chance I got lucky betting the Dog PL.

Combined, that is the percentage after betting almost 6000 games.

you need to use the normal approximation of the binomial for all winning %s = to or > than yours

**a4u2fear** · 11-30-14, 05:22 PM

Teams YTD
9-2 +7.03

**SlickRick1382** · 11-30-14, 05:31 PM

Sides doing real well thusfar, congrats ....

**TheKLB** · 12-01-14, 12:06 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Teams YTD
9-2 +7.03

How do things look for tomorrow?

**Jeffie** · 12-01-14, 12:14 AM

Nice call!

**James Marques** · 12-01-14, 12:17 AM

Originally posted by Romanov

you need to use the normal approximation of the binomial for all winning %s = to or > than yours

This. Plus 5% is statistically significant.

**bihon** · 12-01-14, 05:13 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Combined, that is the percentage after betting almost 6000 games.

I see you don't bet every game anymore (ML), despite fitting 20+ games played.
Have you changed picking criteria?

**bihon** · 12-01-14, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by James Marques

This. Plus 5% is statistically significant.

If we convert the profit to average odds of 2.0, we come to 54% win ratio after the juice.
This looks pretty much statistically significant after 6000 bets.

**dalogester** · 12-01-14, 03:54 PM

Any plays today?

**a4u2fear** · 12-01-14, 04:45 PM

plays will be posted around 5pm ET during the week, as I work full time.

TB +101
COL +103
ARZ -104

ARZ u5.5 -140

Good luck.

**navyblue81** · 12-01-14, 05:14 PM

I always bet the Lightning. Every game. Made a thread about it a couple weeks ago but it's the only hockey team I bet...and they've made me hundreds so far this year. They never lose at home, and they've been solid on the road. Unfortunately, books are starting to catch on how good they are and tough to bet their ML's now.

**SteveRyan** · 12-01-14, 05:20 PM

Are you taking these on the ML or PL?

**a4u2fear** · 12-01-14, 05:37 PM

My plays are ML only

**Aye J Mac** · 12-01-14, 11:17 PM

THANKYOU bro

**dalogester** · 12-01-14, 11:45 PM

lets hope the totals pick up!

**a4u2fear** · 12-02-14, 12:27 AM

Teams YTD
11-3 +8.03

Totals YTD (no one prolly tailing these)
7-10 -4.31u

**chipshipley** · 12-02-14, 03:33 AM

No but loving the team picks thx man

**dalogester** · 12-02-14, 10:56 AM

well i am.. because im an action junkie lol. gl today all!

**Slanina** · 12-02-14, 04:07 PM

Good luck.

**a4u2fear** · 12-02-14, 04:48 PM

we're off to a good start, so my words of wisdom to any newbie: it's a long season, just because you are up a few bets does not mean increase your betting rapidly. Do so over time, or using kelly criterion. Especially since there are so many plays tonight and a lot of chalk on the team plays.

**a4u2fear** · 12-02-14, 04:49 PM

Teams:
PIT -200
WAS -112
TB -193
DET -200
SJ -185

Scary card

**a4u2fear** · 12-02-14, 04:51 PM

PIT o5.5 +136
NYI o5.5 +100
WAS o5.5 +122
CAR u5 +128
TOR o6 -112
CAL u5.5 -132
SJ u5.5 -115
LA u5 -110

Again, the totals are not off to a good start and have not been thoroughly investigated as the team plays as shown in the first thread page. I will have more time to investigate them this weekend. Hopefully a positive night on both ends.

Good luck and don't overbet

**dalogester** · 12-02-14, 10:31 PM

Looking like an awful night. Of course had to be when we have 13 plays with huge juice.

**chipshipley** · 12-03-14, 12:55 AM

sweeeet goal with 16 secs left for the sharks who i had parlayed with the under to bail me out for the night. I just couldn't bring myself to lay all that chalk i had to lay off a few.