Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[KRIT]

Killer write-ups Nash, gl on the season.

[stevenash]

Killer write-ups Nash, gl on the season.

Appreciate it.
It's a grind.

[Joe Sharp]

Profit is profit. Good luck, nash.

[stevenash]

Profit is profit. Good luck, nash.

The business of business is business, and the bottom line is the bottom line.

Thanks for the well wishes.

[KawadaKicks17]

Up to -150 only, that's set in stone.
I'll parlay -180 faves, I'll take +110 on a run line on a -190 fave, will never lay more that 3:2

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.

This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.

[Lincoln Scofield]

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.

This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.

Damn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?

[GiveMeaBJ]

Damn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?

This is big stuff here. We will see what route chooses to go with this one. Someone alert JJ.

[stevenash]

This is big stuff here. We will see what route chooses to go with this one. Someone alert JJ.

This is how we will handle this.

His quote:

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.


My response:

Your first mistake is coming into my house and telling me I don't understand math.
Your second mistake, pretty ballsy one too, is to tell me to don't try to justify it.
What do you think, I am going to take your cheap sucker shot and lay down?

First off I am mainly a spot dog player, mixing in short faves and pick 'em games.

I will from time to time play two team parlays using two faves.
Now I will justify it using math and showing you the work.

In the past 20 years, favorties have won a little over 61 percent of all baseball games. Fact!
If you were hitting 60 percent in basketball or football you would be crushing it. But that's laying 11-10.
Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use to the house advantage.

A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u

Let's say you like a -140 game and a -130 game.
Straight betting, you bet 100 on each
The 40 cent fave misses, the 30 cent fave hits.
You lose 100 on the 40 cent fave, you collect 77 dollars on the 30 cent fave, reverse it, your 30 fave loses, your 40 cent fave hits, you lose 100, collect 71, you lose money either way.
If both lose, you are out the full monty.

Now if you bet the 30 center with the 40 center in a two team parlay, risking 100 gets you 195 back.
If one of thre two loses in your parlay loses, which will happen 6 out of 10 times, you are out the 100.


A couple of years ago 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.
When parlay wageringing to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. I say "most likely" because I have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. That's about 1.25 a win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.

You cut your losses with the parlay, then you would betting heavy faves s/u
There is value there.

[stevenash]

Damn Nash you just got dicked. How did that taste?

You would know

[stevenash]

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.

This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.

Who's ghost are you anyway?

[GiveMeaBJ]

This is how we will handle this.

His quote:

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.


My response:

Your first mistake is coming into my house and telling me I don't understand math.
Your second mistake, pretty ballsy one too, is to tell me to don't try to justify it.
What do you think, I am going to take your cheap sucker shot and lay down?

First off I am mainly a spot dog player, mixing in short faves and pick 'em games.

I will from time to time play two team parlays using two faves.
Now I will justify it using math and showing you the work.

In the past 20 years, favorties have won a little over 61 percent of all baseball games. Fact!
If you were hitting 60 percent in basketball or football you would be crushing it. But that's laying 11-10.
Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use to the house advantage.

A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u

Let's say you like a -140 game and a -130 game.
Straight betting, you bet 100 on each
The 40 cent fave misses, the 30 cent fave hits.
You lose 100 on the 40 cent fave, you collect 77 dollars on the 30 cent fave, reverse it, your 30 fave loses, your 40 cent fave hits, you lose 100, collect 71, you lose money either way.
If both lose, you are out the full monty.

Now if you bet the 30 center with the 40 center in a two team parlay, risking 100 gets you 195 back.
If one of thre two loses in your parlay loses, which will happen 6 out of 10 times, you are out the 100.


A couple of years ago 41 games closed at -$2.00 on the money line. Of these games, the favorite won 25 times, or 61 percent. Had you bet on these favorites, you would have lost money.
When parlay wageringing to the sample of 25 favorites winning (out of 41 plays) at -$2.00. If you bet these games $2.00 to win $1.00, you would have cashed 25 tickets at $1.00 per ticket, but you would have lost 16 times at $2.00 per ticket. That works out to $25 won, less $82 bet, equals -$57 net loss.

If you had parlayed those bets, the results would most likely be different. I say "most likely" because I have to assume some percentages. The first, and most noticeable, effect is that you only need to bet $41 instead of $82. Assuming that the percentages play out, you should win 16 of these 41 wagers. That's about 1.25 a win.
The bad news is that the $20 returned still results in a net loss. The good new is that you only had to wager half as much money to lose less than you would have with flat betting. With the parlay bet, you would have bet $41 and returned $20, for a net loss of $21.

You cut your losses with the parlay, then you would betting heavy faves s/u
There is value there.

First round goes to nash on my card. Will we ever see a rebuttal?

[stevenash]

First round goes to nash on my card. Will we ever see a rebuttal?

What'a going to happen is to avoid further ghosts and trollers from trying to get under my skin is to make this thread pro status only access.

[GiveMeaBJ]

What'a going to happen is to avoid further ghosts and trollers from trying to get under my skin is to make this thread pro status only access.

I feel you nash. Never understood why people who seem to be genuinely nice guys and post great info get bashed on. Haters going to hate I guess. Let me know if you want me to run security here for you.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah, what ya going to do though?

OK, I got a play I like tonight, will write it up later.

Enough nonsense.

[GiveMeaBJ]

^
Yeah, what ya going to do though?

If you are referring to what ya going to do about haters? Nothing. Just keep it moving we all know what is what.

If you are referring to me running security I have a strong syndicate with Mitchy, Cuse, and Mr. Gold. We will have no problem making this guys life hell for you. You are one of the good ones. We can get his computer out of order within the hour. I'll call the boys.

[stevenash]

^
I got Drinker, Sink and that motley crew, enough said.

[Big Bear]

Somebody doesn't understand math. Putting a -180 in a parlay is not any different than taking the bet in a straight wager. A parlay is multiple straight wagers.

If you have a -180 team you either A) think there's value in the line or B) don't think there's value in the line. If you think A, you should bet them in a straight wager among other things. If you think B, you shouldn't bet them at all...straight wager or parlay. If you add a bet you think doesn't have value to a parlay there is simply no way you can justify it.

This won't change, no matter how you try to justify it....so don't try. You're wrong.

i guess i dont understand math either then b/c i would not want to risk $180 to win $100 on Angels with CJ Wilson tonight even though i do think the Angels will win.

however if i was going to do a parlay i would consider them.

[stevenash]

i guess i dont understand math either then b/c i would not want to risk $180 to win $100 on Angels with CJ Wilson tonight even though i do think the Angels will win.

however if i was going to do a parlay i would consider them.

That would be with be with Cobb at -152 for a return of 32.50 on a 20 dollar bet, and there is your best m/l parlay on the board.

[Big Bear]

That would be with be with Cobb at -152 for a return of 32.50 on a 20 dollar bet, and there is your best m/l parlay on the board.

i agree

[Louisvillekid1]

[stevenash]

This is my play of the day

I got -107 on the overnight (placed it 2:27 am) Rockies over Miami,
Just checked the numbers it's now -120, I was going to write it up this morning, before this thread got interrupted, and tell you guys to grab it now, that -107 is a gross error, that the game could go off at -115.
This is what happens when the information flow gets disturbed.

Anyway, at -120 it's still worth a play.

YTD 2-1 +3.21*
Rockies (Anderson) -107 over Marlins (Eovaldi)

Rockies are what they are, one of the best mashing offense driven teams in the majors that can't pitch a lick.
As demonstrated last night, Rockies are going to lose the Jose Fernandez, the Kershaw's, the Stasberg's of the world, pretty much on a regular basis. Good pitching almost always beats good hitting.

Conversely, good hitting almost always beats crappy pitching.
Rockies are a top three or four hitting wise, their bats are stacked.
Tulo, Cargo, Rosario, Cuddyer, the list is endless, that line up can murder crappy pitching.

Fish start Eovaldi, calling a spade of spade, he's trash.
On paper, this Rockie lineup should bludgeon this hamburger, I don't see him getting out of the fourth inning.
That's on paper, there have been cheeseburgers in the past that have stepped up in the past and beaten good hitting teams before, could happen here, but I really doub it, becuase..........

For the Fish to beat the Rox tonight, they have to beat a pretty good lefty in Anderson.
Know what can't the Marling do?
Hit.
Oh sure they have some pieces, and will be relevnat by 2016, but they can't hit.
Dead last in MLB last season in just about everything hitting.
Look for yourself, 30th here, 30th threre, everywhere 30th.

The Fish have a hard time hitting LHP too.

There is really no need to get reallty long here.

Ansderson is almost two levels better than Eovaldi.
Rockie lineup is four levels better than the Fish lineup

There is no need for deep analysis here, this game handicaps itself.

I got -107, see if you can get -115

Rockies 3*

236419484-1

4/1/14 2:23am

$321.00

$300.00

Pending

4/1/14 7:10pm MLB Baseball 953 Colorado Rockies -107* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Miami Marlins (B Anderson - L must Start N Eovaldi - R must Start)

[Nyjrkm06]

gl nash agree the rockies should win

[BennyBigNuts]

KawadaKicks17


Become A Pro!Join Date: 03-31-14
Posts: 2
Betpoints: 12

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Become A Pro!Join Date: 08-28-13
Posts: 38
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Don't waste your time on these scumbags Nasher.

0 posts, mostly ghosts, and broke haters who can't stand ppl win money while their only action will be betting 6 points a day while being a non-pro and not being able to spend them anyways.
I am contemplating doing Pros-only threads this year since SBR won use some common sense and let thread-makers ban names from posting.
But there are still a lot of non-pros who post.
Tough call.
This forum is littered with dirt and all they want is traffic.

[stevenash]

KawadaKicks17


Become A Pro!Join Date: 03-31-14
Posts: 2
Betpoints: 12

Message Me

Become A Pro!Join Date: 08-28-13
Posts: 38
Betpoints: 0

Message Me

Don't waste your time on these scumbags Nasher.

0 posts, mostly ghosts, and broke haters who can't stand ppl win money while their only action will be betting 6 points a day while being a non-pro and not being able to spend them anyways.
I am contemplating doing Pros-only threads this year since SBR won use some common sense and let thread-makers ban names from posting.
But there are still a lot of non-pros who post.
Tough call.
This forum is littered with dirt and all they want is traffic.

I know what he is, I/we even think we know who he is, talk baseball, don't talk ghost/trolls.

[KawadaKicks17]

Im really not trolling. Tell me one thing from my post that is incorrect?

[KawadaKicks17]

Oh, just saw you posted a response. Did not see it or read it yet, will read when I'm home from work.

[stevenash]

Im really not trolling. Tell me one thing from my post that is incorrect?

Betting two money line favorites in a parlay reduces the house advantage.
Baseball isn't football or basketball where a standard bet you lay 11 to win 10.

Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use for house advantage.

A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u

I am not going to argue with you, math proves out you get better value betting two heavy favorites you like on a 2 team parlay then you would s/u each

Do the math on -200 faves, get back to me, care to borrow anyone of my databases, I'll share, my thread, respect it or leave it.

I have no need for trollers.

[brownsfan]

stevenash,

This may be my favorite thread on SBR. Love the insight. Why do you have such a low opinion of Eovaldi? I will probably tail tonight with the Rockies, but just curious....

[Madison]

stevenash,

This may be my favorite thread on SBR. Love the insight. Why do you have such a low opinion of Eovaldi? I will probably tail tonight with the Rockies, but just curious....

Yeah, I kind of agree. Not great but "trash".

[KawadaKicks17]

Betting two money line favorites in a parlay reduces the house advantage.
Baseball isn't football or basketball where a standard bet you lay 11 to win 10.

Baseball is a game bet with money lines, there is no point spread, the money line is a tool sportsbooks use for house advantage.

A good method to overcome this house advantage is to parlay two favorites.
A good baseball 'capper that wins 62 percent, and there are plenty, can show a 40 pecent ROI using the parlay.
You won't win as many parlay wagers, but you get better value than betting each one s/u

I am not going to argue with you, math proves out you get better value betting two heavy favorites you like on a 2 team parlay then you would s/u each

Do the math on -200 faves, get back to me, care to borrow anyone of my databases, I'll share, my thread, respect it or leave it.

I have no need for trollers.

I still have yet to read your first post but this one is not true.

If you put $200 on a parlay with Bucs -200 and Rays -200, you will get back $450 if they both win.

If you put $200 on the Bucs -200 and win, you get back $300. Put all $300 on Rays -200 and you get back $450.

Not sure where you see a difference unless you're getting some special sort of 2 team parlay odds, which no book I'm familiar with has.

[KawadaKicks17]

Also which user were you speaking on when you said you know who they are? Do you post on CTG or Covers?

[BennyBigNuts]

I still have yet to read your first post but this one is not true.

If you put $200 on a parlay with Bucs -200 and Rays -200, you will get back $450 if they both win.

If you put $200 on the Bucs -200 and win, you get back $300. Put all $300 on Rays -200 and you get back $450.

Not sure where you see a difference unless you're getting some special sort of 2 team parlay odds, which no book I'm familiar with has.

You have 5 posts since opening your ghost account, and chose to attack Nash out of the gate.
Can you embarrass yourself any worse?
What account did you get laughed off of and forced into retirement to come and start this one you fukkin scumbag?

[KawadaKicks17]

Lastly... "flat betting" X amount of units by RISKING that amount doesn't change your EV or value at all. By that logic you can just flat bet them in single bets. It's never going to change the EV of the bet. Out of respect I will stop posting in this thread about this but if you'd like to make a new thread to discuss it I'm open to it. I am going to promise you now....there is no way what I am saying is untrue.

[stevenash]

stevenash,

This may be my favorite thread on SBR. Love the insight. Why do you have such a low opinion of Eovaldi? I will probably tail tonight with the Rockies, but just curious....

Flat four seamer with little movement.
Walks almost 4 a game which is why his WH/IP is a God awful 1.40
Give up almost, a homer a game......
That might cut it against a Houston lineup, he's facing Cuddyeer, Rosario, Tulo, Car-Go.... big boy sticks.

What do you see here, that suggests he's good.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?P=Nathan-Eovaldi

[stevenash]

Lastly... "flat betting" X amount of units by RISKING that amount doesn't change your EV or value at all. By that logic you can just flat bet them in single bets. It's never going to change the EV of the bet. Out of respect I will stop posting in this thread about this but if you'd like to make a new thread to discuss it I'm open to it. I am going to promise you now....there is no way what I am saying is untrue.

Fine, in a day or two, I will debate this with you in a different thread, I can prove 1000 differetnt ways to Sunday you can reduce the house advantage, using real time math.

I am not an evil person, so I hope you turn a profit tonight.

One last time, parlays are for suckers in hoops and foots, can save you cash in bases, a lot of cash, show you when I have time