I have a question re: the simplicity of gambling

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  • No coincidences
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 01-18-10
    • 76300

    #1
    I have a question re: the simplicity of gambling
    Why don't we all just stop with the capping, stop with the analyzing, stop with the research, stop with the line watching, stop with finding plays that have "value" and "RLM" and beating the closer and all of that other nonsense....

    And just fade Brandon Lang?

    It really, truly and succinctly is that easy. We all know it. So WTF are we doing betting other games? We're making this shit way too hard, fellas.

  • tatddy
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-02-10
    • 10779

    #2
    Because at the core people want to win. People want to be successful. 90% of the people just get confused and think they like money. But the ego doesn't know anything about money.

    So tailing or fading may work for a while. But eventually people will want to try and "beat" each other and beat the books...find "angles"....identify new "thought processes".

    So basically a slow/steady successful path that doesn't involve any ego or perceived original thought will fade.

    Because people want to feel successful. They may think they want money but it's really irrelevant.

    A bunch of sheep can't become shepherds so easily.
    Comment
    • The Kraken
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-25-11
      • 28918

      #3
      Heres the problem with doing that
      Comment
      • ChalkyDog
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 10-02-11
        • 9598

        #4
        If money was what we're all about, we wouldn't be betting sports at -110 or worse.

        I love sports too much. I love trying to find angles too much. I enjoy keeping my own power ratings. I enjoy almost everything there is to do with capping.

        Lang satisfies none of that.
        Comment
        • Ghenghis Kahn
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 19734

          #5
          my ego won't let me pay for picks.
          Comment
          • ROFLcopter
            SBR MVP
            • 06-16-10
            • 4446

            #6
            His plays are posted, but without units. Would it still be worthwhile to do if flat betting?
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by tatddy
              Because at the core people want to win. People want to be successful. 90% of the people just get confused and think they like money. But the ego doesn't know anything about money.

              So tailing or fading may work for a while. But eventually people will want to try and "beat" each other and beat the books...find "angles"....identify new "thought processes".

              So basically a slow/steady successful path that doesn't involve any ego or perceived original thought will fade.

              Because people want to feel successful. They may think they want money but it's really irrelevant.

              A bunch of sheep can't become shepherds so easily.
              Yeah, true.

              For me, I just can't stand to make only one bet per day. That's a boring life for a degenerate.

              I just think it's funny the answer to all of our problems is slapping us in the face and we choose to take the complicated route anyway. But you're right: it's not just about the money and the bottom line.
              Comment
              • No coincidences
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 01-18-10
                • 76300

                #8
                Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                If money was what we're all about, we wouldn't be betting sports at -110 or worse.

                I love sports too much. I love trying to find angles too much. I enjoy keeping my own power ratings. I enjoy almost everything there is to do with capping.

                Lang satisfies none of that.
                I'm in the same boat, but I'm not really sure we're the rule vs. the exception.
                Comment
                • easyliving
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 06-25-12
                  • 8876

                  #9
                  is he really that bad? Whats his record the last 200 picks and how much would I need to get his picks?
                  Comment
                  • NolaDrewDats
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 01-22-14
                    • 154

                    #10
                    Originally posted by easyliving
                    is he really that bad? Whats his record the last 200 picks and how much would I need to get his picks?
                    Just search "fade Brandon Lang". There's a forum that has been tracking his plays for about 4 years now. Someone almost always posts them each day.
                    Comment
                    • No coincidences
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-18-10
                      • 76300

                      #11
                      Originally posted by easyliving
                      is he really that bad? Whats his record the last 200 picks and how much would I need to get his picks?
                      Worse.
                      Comment
                      • convick
                        SBR MVP
                        • 11-03-11
                        • 3954

                        #12
                        Originally posted by easyliving
                        is he really that bad? Whats his record the last 200 picks and how much would I need to get his picks?
                        No he is not, at least not if you flat bet. He is 21-18 in ncaa hoops and was about .500 in the nfl this past regular season.

                        He was on Pitt tonight but he had Utah last night. Occasionally he will have a 4-5 game losing streak, but he is also likely to win 4-5 in row. He did have an amazingly bad bowl season (again), I think he has gone about 10-30 last 3 years on bowl games.
                        Comment
                        • InTheDrink
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-23-09
                          • 23983

                          #13
                          Originally posted by ChalkyDog
                          If money was what we're all about, we wouldn't be betting sports at -110 or worse.

                          I love sports too much. I love trying to find angles too much. I enjoy keeping my own power ratings. I enjoy almost everything there is to do with capping.

                          Lang satisfies none of that.
                          This is completely true but I've gone through phases where I've added his fades to my plays and let him subsidize the rest of my suck.

                          Also is there much worse than seeing that you're on the same play as Lang?

                          Or landers for that matter

                          Something about those initials
                          Comment
                          • cruzing vato
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 02-21-12
                            • 538

                            #14
                            He doesn't post enough plays and he,s not bad enough, meaning 40%
                            Comment
                            • ChiLLx
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-24-11
                              • 5412

                              #15
                              Because winners want to feel like we "beat" and outsmarted the books. There's some kind of satisfaction in cashing in on a hardshelled opinion on an upcoming game.

                              Being a Lang fade robot provides none of that feeling of being "in control".
                              Comment
                              • BadLuckSanta
                                SBR MVP
                                • 06-30-10
                                • 2756

                                #16
                                Tail me. You'll win money, unlike these guys winning units. What jackass started using units? What bank uses units?

                                Fading Lang has been proven to make money every season. Does go on a 4 game streak occasionally but with good money management there is no reason to profit there.
                                Comment
                                • jjgold
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 07-20-05
                                  • 388179

                                  #17
                                  The problem with fading anyone including me is long-term the vig will get you and you will lose at -110
                                  Comment
                                  • t-wizzle
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 12-18-09
                                    • 38099

                                    #18
                                    What enjoyment would you get out of blindly fading someone?


                                    I mean yea it's funny to joke about fading the guy but come on dude.
                                    Comment
                                    • No coincidences
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 01-18-10
                                      • 76300

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by jjgold
                                      The problem with fading anyone including me is long-term the vig will get you and you will lose at -110
                                      Coach, your spreadsheet is bad enough that it would absorb the juice and then some.

                                      Same goes for Langatang.
                                      Comment
                                      • PAULYPOKER
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-06-08
                                        • 36581

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by easyliving
                                        is he really that bad? Whats his record the last 200 picks and how much would I need to get his picks?
                                        Service Plays

                                        Comment
                                        • cruzing vato
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 02-21-12
                                          • 538

                                          #21
                                          It was pacers all season.. just that easy, now I dunno
                                          Comment
                                          • PAULYPOKER
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 12-06-08
                                            • 36581

                                            #22
                                            If you seriously want it to be about the $$$

                                            you can not be a FAN

                                            of said sport sports

                                            simple as that
                                            Comment
                                            • cruzing vato
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 02-21-12
                                              • 538

                                              #23
                                              Damn it says he's down 587 dimes in 2014! That sounds fadable
                                              Comment
                                              • PAULYPOKER
                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                • 12-06-08
                                                • 36581

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by 20Four7
                                                Lang 1/27

                                                From around the block.

                                                Brandon Lang

                                                Pitt
                                                Lol........
                                                Comment
                                                • Pounding it down
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 01-27-14
                                                  • 219

                                                  #25
                                                  I personally think its the rush!! when u beak down a game and watch it unvail before your eyes makes u feel like ur a genius.. So you want more and work harder and when it dont pan out u feel like u woud rather take a ass beating than do that again.. at the very end its gambling what side of the pendulum do we want to be on..
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Seto
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 12-16-11
                                                    • 12906

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                                                    If you seriously want it to be about the $$$

                                                    you can not be a FAN

                                                    of said sport sports

                                                    simple as that
                                                    More bullshit from SBR's resident pathological liar/stiff
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Chipup
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-24-13
                                                      • 1435

                                                      #27
                                                      It's been broken down here pretty straight forward. Our lives are boring , we need mental stimulation so we work the numbers. Always trying as stated above to find a new angle and missed stat that could unravel the whole ship. For me the problem is even a 10-20k win streak isn't enough.

                                                      As I've stated I'm just a middle class smuck, 10-20k is a huge amount of money to me but then again it won't change my life. It won't let me wake up and never have to work again. So it's meaningless. I know you guys all feel the same way. The wins let us do little stupid things to interrupt the boredom like buy a new home theatre or a nice family trip.

                                                      If we wanted to be long term winners we'd bet against the Houston Astros or the Chicago Cubs all season long without chasing. Every MLB season I say the same thing. This season I'm straight betting against the Astros every single game. No other action. Never happens.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Hot Jerry
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-16-13
                                                        • 5545

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by ghenghis kahn
                                                        my ego won't let me pay for picks.
                                                        never paid for picks and never wll !!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Big Bear
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 11-01-11
                                                          • 43253

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by jjgold
                                                          The problem with fading anyone including me is long-term the vig will get you and you will lose at -110
                                                          JJ you don't even know what that means pal.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Big Bear
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 11-01-11
                                                            • 43253

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by Chipup
                                                            It's been broken down here pretty straight forward. Our lives are boring , we need mental stimulation so we work the numbers. Always trying as stated above to find a new angle and missed stat that could unravel the whole ship. For me the problem is even a 10-20k win streak isn't enough.

                                                            As I've stated I'm just a middle class smuck, 10-20k is a huge amount of money to me but then again it won't change my life. It won't let me wake up and never have to work again. So it's meaningless. I know you guys all feel the same way. The wins let us do little stupid things to interrupt the boredom like buy a new home theatre or a nice family trip.

                                                            If we wanted to be long term winners we'd bet against the Houston Astros or the Chicago Cubs all season long without chasing. Every MLB season I say the same thing. This season I'm straight betting against the Astros every single game. No other action. Never happens.
                                                            if your going to fade the Astros and Cubs which i certainly agree with fade them by taking -1 so you don't have to lay so much juice.

                                                            And be careful fading Samardizija for the Cubbies..

                                                            other than the Cubs and Astros i dont really see any teams that are easy fades...

                                                            Hell even the Padres and Mets got better in the off season.
                                                            Comment
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