The Broncos gave up 13 to Houston. Raider got 14 in garbage time with 5 minutes left. San Diego managed to get 17 but needed an onside kick just to do that. That Patriots scored 43 the previous playoff game and only managed to get 16 points because Denver was playing prevent defense. It's laughable how people here are still living in past and are too blind to see the hottest defense in the NFL right now.
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Stop bro. Don't help any a these pukes out. Let all these cats hammer the Seahawks ats and ml.Comment -
Agreed.
Bronco's defense is weakest in the secondary. I don't see Russell winning this game with his arm.Comment -
Hou and Oak are garbage. SD played a very conservative 1st Half of the game. Denver did shut down the NE run game, but Brady was off. They also gave up 48 to Dallas, 39 to Indy, 28 to KC, 21 to Oak earlier this year. Their best cover corner and linebacker are done. If Wilson plays well Seattle will score their fair share. If it's enough who Knows?Comment -
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Mushypoker finally got a winner.Comment -
Are you a Denver homer, Frostno?
You got any specific numbers to back up the claim? I tend to agree with the angle, but haven't looked at pertinent stats.Comment -
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A Denver homer claiming their defense is the hottest and short qb's don't win Super Bowls lolComment -
How are squares underestimating Denver's defense if almost 80% of the bets are currently on the Broncos? It looks like Seattle's offense, if anything, is what's being overlooked.Comment -
ALL early money is SHARP money(not public)...........
Did any of you nay sayers bet yet?Comment -
SBR's biggest homer fan boy called someone a square. We need to pay attention.
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This is why the lines change early then idle for awhile then move again on game day when the PUBLIC makes their plays then the Sharps make steam accordingly........Comment -
The square narrative runs den beat pats sea struggled vs niners. If you let squareville set the line its a td game but that's not what the books are dealing. Brady sucked and talib was hurt early and sherman is better. Lynch is a straight beast and can out work d lines deep into games.Comment -
Most PI penalties by teams secondary:
Seattle: 20
Denver: 19
Bills: 18Comment -
What Sbr squares? A Majority of Sbr seems to be on Denver.Comment -
Denver was #7 in the NFL against the run but they can be beat by the pass.
RW is terrible in the pocket and is not a very good passing QB. It is all roll outs, play action and dump offs, their offense is predicated on the run and play action and short down and distances off that.
Denver's defense isn't that good but they got a favorable match up against Seattle's offense.Comment -
The majority of the money is on Denver and it's not even close. You can't tell me that it's ALL sharp money. Furthermore, even if it was, you can't really believe that the 80/20 DEN/SEA ratio is suddenly gonna swing to 40/60 or so when the public decides to throw down their money.
Why would the public favor Seattle? They have a ho-hum offense with a quarterback who people consider to be a "game manager." Sure, the defense is great, but defenses aren't what titillate the average bettor.
The Broncos have all the hallmarks of a public darling. They have the big 6'5" first ballot HOF record setting quarterback....a guy who will be making his 3rd Super Bowl appearance and chasing his 2nd ring, not to mention the TV commercials and the family pedigree. The receiving corps is hands-down the best in the league, headlined by a prototypical modern day gamebreaker in Demaryius Thomas. The running game is efficient. "Squares" love a sexy offense and the Broncos have it in spades.
Denver has a more storied history, with Elway hoisting the Lombardi trophy twice. Seattle has, um, Matt Hasselbeck? ..Meh "Manning" is synonymous with football. "Wilson" makes volleyballs.
So this notion that the squares are or will be backing the Seahawks in droves is silly and unfounded. It's probably just the OP's attempt to convince himself that Denver is the right side (which it could very well be, but not because it's a public fade).Comment -
Gentlemen, the fact of the matter is that NONE OF YOU, and that means NONE OF YOU, can tell a square from a sharp. None of you have been there. How many of you KNOW the inside workings of a successful book? How many of you personally know a "sharp"? Do you think that there are any "sharps" in here? How many of you wager thousands of dollars on one wager? How many of you think that a huge wager at Caesars can affect the line at the Nugget? How many of you are aware of the Security System that each shop now operates under? Do any of you know exactly how that works? So please, pick your team and state your reasons, but lay off the B.S. involving Sharps and Squares, and who is playing what, and the percentages, because the truth of the matter is that NONE of you know. Stop trying to be something you are not. Stick to the game, and not trying to impress us with your knowledge because those of us that have worked in the business know that you do not have a clue.Comment -
Wouldn't call anyone a square for it but I do believe the Broncos D isn't getting enough credit. They have a solid D line and LB core, while the secondary is alright. They made Brady throw to beat them, what do you think they will do with Wilson. He's gonna have to win it. I don't see Seattle putting up more than 20. Can their D keep the Broncos under 20, I don't think so. 24-20 Broncos baby!
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My bets are already in.......
Denver wins Superbowl 48 or I retire from ALL of forumville
whats that make me?
"I am neither Square nor Sharp I am me I...
"I am neither Square nor Sharp I am me I am"
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SBR Squares on Seattle? The majority of the board and the majority of the public is on Denver here....ML and ATS....
Have SOME sort of an idea before you post...maybe do a little research?Comment -
tails has ALWAYS been sharpest SB bet
same thing this year
squares pounding heads right nowComment -
The Brick and Mortar books in Vegas will be hit hard by public money. Seattle and Denver fans will flock. Majority of those guys don't even attempt to get money down before getting there.Comment -
omg shut the fukk up already
all you do is make homer threads ...Comment -
Thread: Sharpest play on the board>(educationalFirst off sharp/square is simply just terminology used to define the 2 largest but opposite types of bettors in the sports industry.
Below I will focus on supplying you guys with information on the Sharps, mostly because SHARPS are the most profitable sports investors in the long run if they are well disciplined with money management skills.
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Part1
Just some of many SHARP types in theory>>>>
There are several types of sharp bettors that bookmakers have to contend with. There are sharp bettors who handicap extremely well over the long term, particularly adept at beating college football and college hoops. These bettors find ways to access information that the bookmakers simply don’t have time to research, They can see matchup advantages on the field and/or situational advantages in the locker room as well or better than the bookies, giving them a huge advantage in a pair of sports where the lines maker must put out pointspreads on literally dozens of games that they know little about. When you see a three point line move on a college basketball game between Drexel and Georgia State, and the game still wins by a comfortable margin, you know that the sharps had the right information, and the right side.
Another type of sharp bettor relies on excellent betting techniques. These guys aren’t traditional handicappers in any sense of the word, but they are extraordinarily well versed in market economies, many with strong math backgrounds. Using reduced juice wagering and a strong understanding of likely line moves, these bettors can turn a modest 53% or 54% long term winning percentage into a substantial profit by always getting the best of the number while laying less juice than everybody else.
Then there are the professional betting syndicates, groups made famous by legendary bettors like Billy Walters and the Computer Group back in the 1980’s. The syndicates utilize their own predictive computer programming skills to identify weak pointspreads, betting accordingly. These groups tend to stay well below the radar screen, looking to stay out of the limelight as much as possible.
When these sharp bettors place their wagers, the marketplace reacts quickly. The von test (fictional name) screen is a staple for most serious bettors. It’s pricey, but it’s also one of the only sources for dozens and dozens of live odds from multiple books. When the von test (fictional name) screen ‘goes black’ on a particular game, that means that one of the betting groups has made a play. We saw situations like this many times,(example)> as the screen went black on LSU over Notre Dame , wiping out all the LSU -7 and -7.5 that was out there. Within ten minutes, the prevailing line was LSU -8.5.
Sharp money moves all week long. Early week line moves in football and overnight line moves in basketball are exclusively the territory of sharps, as few, if any, square bettors bet before gameday. One of the biggest misconceptions that I see among sports betting writers is the thought that square bettors move lines on a consistent basis prior to gameday. Quite frankly, that is completely wrong – there are no ‘public’ line moves more than 24 hours before kickoff or tip-off.
It’s easy to tell the difference between a sharp and a square line move. Sharp moves turn the von test (fictional name) screen black; square moves trickle from sportsbook to sportsbook throughout the day. Anyone with a live odds program can tell the difference immediately.
Sharp bettors tend to play at reduced juice shops . Square bettors tend to play at well advertised shops . Both book types are perfectly solvent, but they simply market to different audiences. Savvy bettors will have accounts at both type of places and many more shops as well, doing their darndest to bet into the best number for their wager, regardless of where the bet is placed. There are sharp bettors in Las Vegas who are willing to drive an hour or more to outlying locations just to get a half point better than they can find here in town.
Sharp bettors are more than willing to bet parlays and teasers, in contrast to how they have been portrayed. But, unlike square bettors, sharp bettors are going to bet parlays only when they are getting the best of the number. Many ‘sharp’ parlays are two teamers where the side and total in a particular game are related. Sharp bettors will also shoot for big scores betting underdog moneyline parlays, knowing full well that when dogs cover, they have a high probability of winning the game outright.
I have recently noticed in the NFL Handicapping Forum that brahmabull117
a SBR member is on his way to figuring this next type out>
Sharp bettors also get involved with teasers, particularly in the NFL. NFL lines are extremely tight, and the extra six points can make a real difference in more than half of the games. Sharps tease small underdogs up over a touchdown, and tease big favorites down to less than a field goal, a long term profitable strategy.
(*Note: a well disciplined Sharp will never place teaser wagers greater than a two team combination.*)
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Part 2
SHARPS vs.squares:in action form>
Below are five real examples of sharps VS.squares wager&line movement action to show you the advantage sharps have over the squares>
The sharp vs. square debate rages on in Las Vegas and offshore. John Ross, a Las Vegas oddsmaker, is keeping score between the betting public and the wiseguys as he takes action throughout the week.
Ross is keeping records of the five biggest moves each week and how the pros and joes fare for an entire football season.
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Florida State@Clemson
Saturday, September 24, 2011 3:30 PM
Opened: Clemson +3, Closed: Clemson -2
This was as much injury steam as it was a bad number that crashed this pointspread. With Florida State QB EJ Manuel rumored to be out, wiseguys flocked to the Tigers as a home dog in this flat spot for FSU with the likelihood of a backup QB making his first start on the conference highway.
The price continued to plummet throughout the week as more and more Noles appeared on the injury report. Late money came in on FSU from folks looking to middle the game which never really had a shot. However, late FSU money doesn’t take away from the big move that helped wiseguys cash Clemson +3 tickets rather easily.
Clemson 35, Florida State 30
Winner: Sharps
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Nevada@Texas Tech
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:00 PM
Opened: Texas Tech -21, Closed: Texas Tech -15
The biggest line move of the week dropped six full points from the opening to closing price. Usually, wiseguys stop hammering a number after it moves 2-3 points across key numbers (21, 17, etc). But this scenario was much different as they bet the game consistently from start to finish.
We continued to take wiseguy bets no matter how much the price moved and apparently for good reason. Texas Tech never led by more than seven and the Wolf Pack got to the window for sharp gamblers with relative ease even having a chance to win the game outright as huge underdogs.
Texas Tech 35, Nevada 34
Winner: Sharps
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Nebraska@Wyoming
Saturday, September 24, 2011 7:30 PM
Opened: Nebraska -24, Closed: Nebraska -20.5
From a situational standpoint, wiseguys saw value in Wyoming catching a little over three scores versus Nebraska at home. The Cornhuskers defense was porous in its previous two games, so sharp money latched onto the +24 and drove it down over a field goal.
This contest was a perfect example of why it’s imperative for professionals to get the best of the number. If you didn’t grab the 24 and insure yourself at least a push, you ended up a few points short because of a missed Wyoming field goal.
Every sharp will tell you that if you can’t get the best of the number, a game isn’t worth playing. Given what unfolded in Wyoming, the best-case scenario for Cowboys backers was a push with even those gamblers grabbing 23.5 late taking it on the chin.
Nebraska 38, Wyoming 14
Winner: Squares
This is why more seasoned SHARPS jump on opening lines because for these guys this game was a push which is always a win on this situation.
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Missouri@Oklahoma
Saturday, September 24, 2011 8:00 PM
Opened: OU -21.5, Closed: OU -19.5
This game showed very interesting line movement throughout the week. It wasn’t until kickoff Saturday evening that the casual gambler was better able to understand the move. Oklahoma climbed as high as -22.5 before the bottom fell out when sharp money knew OU’s second receiving threat, Kenny Stills, was going to miss the game with a head injury (price started to dip Thursday).
The general public and sports information services never knew about his status prior to kickoff, proving another example of why the wiseguys betting opinion is always respected. The general public rarely wants to fade the elite teams and it was sharp money that latched onto an undervalued Missouri side. The nearly three-TD dog never found itself outside the number all night.
Oklahoma 38, Missouri 28
Winner: Sharps
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NFL sample>
N.Y. Jets@Oakland
Sunday, September 25, 2011 4:05 PM
Opened: New York -3.5, Closed: New York -2.5
Any time a line moves from 3.5 to 3 in the NFL, it’s worth paying attention too. Oakland took that one step further, opening at +3.5 and closing at +2.5, with a full point move across a key number. For a NFL price to move that much, it takes deep pockets and the sharp money clearly knew what it was doing. The Raiders looked like the better team right from the start and, after watching for 60 minutes, made a compelling case for being the favorite.
Keep in mind, anytime you see a spread move across a key number without any buyback, it’s a line move that you won’t find much success fading. If you’re in the market of tailing steam, however, don’t be the guy grabbing 2.5 only to watch the game fall at three.
Oakland 34, N.Y. Jets 24
Winner: Sharps
Score: Sharps 4, Squares 1
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Now that you have a better understanding on the overall SHARP terminology, you have a much greater opportunity of becoming SHARP yourself or at least you now have the basic tools to know what to look for so in the immediate future you can follow the SHARP side of the plays.
I choose not to label myself SHARP or square because truthfully I am neither of the two,I march to the beat of my own drum so to speak, actually back in the day I used to have a self explaining title in my signature option that was embedded on each and every post I made and if you read my posts you could not miss it, which read something like this.>
"I am neither Square nor Sharp I am Me I am...."
Good luck
PAULYPOKER
PS
I will post the *"sharpest play"* on today's card in a short while so stay tuned!
*Note there is no guarantee this play will cash in for you but it is the *"sharpest play"* of the day having a significant advantage over the other play choices.Comment
