Texas State @ LA-Lafayette, Mon, Jan 13 7:00 PM ET ESPN3

[Louisvillekid1]

I don't understand why the RLM in this game going from La La -10 to -8 currently.

The 'Cajuns have a very solid squad in this the 4th Year under Bob Marlin. They have started the season 10-5 (2-1) while playing the 78th toughest schedule YTD. They have also dealt with a few key injuries, and during that time it allowed their bench to get more experience and they are 100% healthy for the first time all season. Which is important for their team chemistry due to the fact that they returned all 5 starters from last years squad. If you are unfamiliar w/ the Cajan's they have a NBA player in Junior Guard Elfrid Payton (20.1 PTS, 6.1 AST, 5.7 REB) who can really do it all on the court. He is complimented by the only 20 ppg scoring duo in the nation in Sophomore Forward Shawn Long (21.5 PTS, 11.0 REB, & 3.1 BLK). Sophomore Kasey Shepard has started to really put it together coming off the bench averaging 14 ppg over the last 9 including 17+ in 5 of those. (dropped 18 against Louisville)

Also important to note that the Rajan 'Cajuns are 7-0 @ home.

Texas St enters this conference match up 5-11 (1-2) while playing the 216th ranked schedule YTD. They are coming off their best win of the season on the road against UL Monroe 61-36 who is currently ranked 287 by KP, & they had a week to prepare for that game Their other 4 wins came against 288 Tulane, 297 Northern Kentucky, and 2 non D-1 Schools in Cedarville & Texas Tyler. The Bobcats put 2 players in double figures in Senior Forward Joel Wright (15.1 Pts, 6.3 REB) & Freshman Forward Emani Gant (10.3 PTS 5.7 REB).

Also important to note the Bobcats are 1-5 in true Road games.

The Bobcats are outmatched in almost every single category in this matchup. They play at one of the slowest paces in the nation and ULL plays at one of the quickest. The home team here should be able to dicate pace and the huge constrast in styles is the only reason I can guess the DD line dropping here. I know the bobcats recently got Wes Davis (9.1 PTS) back but he played in 14 games this season, so its not like their star has returned.

I just see ULL running away with this by 15+.

Anybody have anything im missing on this game?

I guess I'll wait to bet it, since hertiage is now hanging -7.5 -115

[tto827]

Gonna wait and see if it keeps falling, then pound

[Ghenghis Kahn]

these games are tricky. tread lightly...

[Louisvillekid1]

these games are tricky. tread lightly...

Which games?

Also, even though they are in the same conference its not like they know each other well. Its the first year in the same conference and last match up was in 1959.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

when i say these games, i mean these college basketball games where, on paper, one team should blow out the lesser competition.

ull undefeated at home, texas st 1-5 on the road, this game should be a blowout but anything can happen when you're basically betting on mostly teenagers.

one thing though, i think rlm means the least in college hoops. gl today...

[Romanov]

Same thing happened in Texas State's last game. They were a 5.5 dog when i took em for a unit and should've been up around 8 or 9. Line dropped to 3.5 by game time. They won straight up. Killed the other team. Tread lightly. Im on Texas state +9.5 for a unit and +8.5 for another unit

[RudyRuetigger]

do not worry about RLM today

blindly id go with the fav

[Louisvillekid1]

7.5 now, no clue what's going on

[crbravens23]

when it looks like a lock go to other side. public on LA - Lafayette. 65%.

[Louisvillekid1]

Im sticking w/ my guns here just might go down to $50 instead of $100

[BigDeem5]

Lines don't mean everything - "Everyone but no coin".

[2daBank]

when it looks like a lock go to other side. public on LA - Lafayette. 65%.

that all well and good when you can justify the play, the "public" gets games right all the time, if i can make a case for the majority being wrong great but just blindly making a play cause it unpopular isnt exactly a recipe for success..

[No coincidences]

do not worry about RLM today

blindly id go with the fav

Monday is typically a good day to take favorites and ignore line movement.

[No coincidences]

that all well and good when you can justify the play, the "public" gets games right all the time, if i can make a case for the majority being wrong great but just blindly making a play cause it unpopular isnt exactly a recipe for success..

Public is right more often than not -- they get killed on the juice, taking big ML faves and parlays. That's where the books make their money.

[2daBank]

i dont think there any way i woulda touched ull at double digits if only cause how poorly they shoot fts, good way to give up a back door bricking freebees..texas state has some guys that can prob take adv of ull inside but if ull can get their pace they outta hang a pretty good number on them. i think if i could get ull-7 they prob worth a play.. that or pass i think..

lk what you think bout uva? i had to play them at +6.5, dont love fading puke at home off a loss but i also cant overlook how clemson grinding asses caused duke problems and how uva is a better version of them..

[No coincidences]

i dont think there any way i woulda touched ull at double digits if only cause how poorly they shoot fts, good way to give up a back door bricking freebees..texas state has some guys that can prob take adv of ull inside but if ull can get their pace they outta hang a pretty good number on them. i think if i could get ull-7 they prob worth a play.. that or pass i think..

lk what you think bout uva? i had to play them at +6.5, dont love fading puke at home off a loss but i also cant overlook how clemson grinding asses caused duke problems and how uva is a better version of them..

I'm not LK, but last time I took UVA, they scored like 12 points against Wisconsin.

I'd love them in this spot if they hadn't gotten curb-stomped at Clemson. Line does seem suspiciously low, though. I was anticipating an 8.

[Louisvillekid1]

i dont think there any way i woulda touched ull at double digits if only cause how poorly they shoot fts, good way to give up a back door bricking freebees..texas state has some guys that can prob take adv of ull inside but if ull can get their pace they outta hang a pretty good number on them. i think if i could get ull-7 they prob worth a play.. that or pass i think..

lk what you think bout uva? i had to play them at +6.5, dont love fading puke at home off a loss but i also cant overlook how clemson grinding asses caused duke problems and how uva is a better version of them..

Uva stood out right away but I couldn't play them for that same reason.

ULL has shot it well from the charity stripe the last 3, shooting 74% improving to 68% on the year.

but you bring up some good points, and heritage is already hanging 7.

Im going to play them but probably only for half a unit now.

[Big Bear]

7.5 now, no clue what's going on

tony is trying to mind fukk you.

he is bluffing

[Big Bear]

the charity stripe lol

i like da lingo

[2daBank]

I'm not LK, but last time I took UVA, they scored like 12 points against Wisconsin.

I'd love them in this spot if they hadn't gotten curb-stomped at Clemson. Line does seem suspiciously low, though. I was anticipating an 8.

yea but they held a really good offensive wiscy club to what like 48 points? i rate wiscy much better than puke at this point...not sure if line suspiciously low or not, i made it 4 and that only cause it at Cameron, id prob make uva slight favs at home vs them.. i could be wrong and i dont like they got whipped by clemson but at same time if you struggle to score on clemson there a good chance you struggle with uva i think..

[2daBank]

Uva stood out right away but I couldn't play them for that same reason.

ULL has shot it well from the charity stripe the last 3, shooting 74% improving to 68% on the year.

but you bring up some good points, and heritage is already hanging 7.

Im going to play them but probably only for half a unit now.

i didnt look at last 3, just ran through that gm real quick after i saw your post. that encouraging. i think im with you if i can get -7 it worth a half unit.. ill prob get burnt by uva but had to play at that number..

[Ghenghis Kahn]

lk what you think bout uva? i had to play them at +6.5, dont love fading puke at home off a loss but i also cant overlook how clemson grinding asses caused duke problems and how uva is a better version of them..

i got virginia +7 little earlier. thing about duke this year, they don't have inside presence. this game should be close...

[Rangers901]

LK, I had this game capped at ULL -11 before the line opened.

The drop to 7.5 +101 at Pinny is a real head scratcher.

Initially, I was planning on making a hefty investment on this one, but if I said the movement isn't making me hesitate, I'd be lying.

Either way, I still want a piece of ULL as the line is almost 4 points lower than my original valuation, which is fairly significant. Also thinking of throwing together a rare ML parlay.

[crbravens23]

solid point 2dabank. i have no clue about either team, just going based off LK analysis. i wouldnt touch a game where i havent seen either team play at least 2 or 3 times.

[Louisvillekid1]

LK, I had this game capped at ULL -11 before the line opened.

The drop to 7.5 +101 at Pinny is a real head scratcher.

Initially, I was planning on making a hefty investment on this one, but if I said the movement isn't making me hesitate, I'd be lying.

Either way, I still want a piece of ULL as the line is almost 4 points lower than my original valuation, which is fairly significant. Also thinking of throwing together a rare ML parlay.

My exact thoughts as well

Good Luck to us

Always value your input

[irish1]

i got virginia +7 little earlier. thing about duke this year, they don't have inside presence. this game should be close...

Coming off an embarrassing loss to Clemson? I'm thinking Duke comes back strong, I'm not on it so good luck. This is clearly not a Duke team we are used to seeing. No defensive presence at all. This is a street team. The only good team that UVU has beaten is FSU. Lost to VCU, Wisky, Tenn Vols and Green Bay. Hey I'm a Duke fan and they screwed me bigtime against Clemson but they still have the "K" factor.

[2daBank]

solid point 2dabank. i have no clue about either team, just going based off LK analysis. i wouldnt touch a game where i havent seen either team play at least 2 or 3 times.

college hoops all numbers for me, i find there times when im better off never seeing them play as i dont develop a bias that way.. i dont look at the ap rankings, dont listen to any of the bs analyst, strictly numbers with a little bit of situational thrown in..there are certainly times where the numbers make no sense and i fade just cause clearly im missing something someone smarter than me saw but those are few in far between, northwestern kinda fell into that category last night but i didnt even play them cause i felt the total was so far off i just played the under..

[2daBank]

Coming off an embarrassing loss to Clemson? I'm thinking Duke comes back strong, I'm not on it so good luck. This is clearly not a Duke team we are used to seeing. No defensive presence at all. This is a street team. The only good team that UVU has beaten is FSU. Lost to VCU, Wisky, Tenn Vols and Green Bay. Hey I'm a Duke fan and they screwed me bigtime against Clemson but they still have the "K" factor.

if it wasnt for puke coming off that beat down id be on it for more but still think uva worth a play, if i can get +6.5 when i make a gm +4 im gonna play it every time.. sometimes it will lose, hopefully more it will cash, yea it tough environment and spot but better team catching 6.5 im with that..

[Louisvillekid1]

Ticket#:27421260 Jan 13 07:00 PM

INTERNET / -1

Jan 13 05:26 PM

CBB

STRAIGHT BET [724] UL LAFAYETTE -7-105

105 / 100

Ok i think this is the best number i can get.

Locking it in

Good luck

[Rangers901]

Ticket#:27421260 Jan 13 07:00 PM

INTERNET / -1

Jan 13 05:26 PM

CBB

STRAIGHT BET [724] UL LAFAYETTE -7-105

105 / 100

Ok i think this is the best number i can get.

Locking it in

Good luck

Damn, I've got 6 funded shops right now and not one is offering that number at the moment.

I'll wait it out for a -7, worst case scenario I get stuck with a 7.5 or 8.

-7 at -105 is a great line man.

[Louisvillekid1]

Got lucky w/ Local PPH right after I bet it I checked the line and saw -7.5.

My local offers every game bet -105 so get these situations sometimes where their tail book is juicing one side, but site is auto set to -105.

Big time local in Philly, just got back set up w/ him.

[frogsrangers]

I have this game capped as an 11 point ULL win so value is there at -7.5

[Romanov]

Best of luck Louisvillekid. I hope we middle and Laf wins by 8!

[2daBank]

the move on youngstown state doesnt make a lot of sense to me either.. kinda limited time today, ended up playing cle st ml, uva+6.5, then ml parlayed ull and cuse (paid like 55 cents on the dollar), not huge fan of that but seemed like was worth it, dont think cuse will lose to bc (hopefully).. finally got my pc back up and running so will prob re-start a thread 2marro... gl everyone

[Louisvillekid1]

Best of luck Louisvillekid. I hope we middle and Laf wins by 8!