Awesome, welcome back man. Great stuff last season.
Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers
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PotentateSBR MVP
- 03-31-13
- 1089
#36Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#37Alrighty.....I had forgotten that it is American Thanksgiving.....here are some picks in the NFL tomorrow....
212506752-1 11/28/13 6:39am $100.00 $104.00 Pending 11/28/13 12:30pm Reduced Football 303 Green Bay Packers +6½ +104* <small>vs</small> Detroit Lions 212506752-2 11/28/13 6:39am $106.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 4:30pm Reduced Football 305 Oakland Raiders +7½ -106* <small>vs</small> Dallas Cowboys 212506752-3 11/28/13 6:39am $100.00 $105.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:30pm Reduced Football 307 Pittsburgh Steelers +2½ +105* <small>vs</small> Baltimore Ravens 212506752-4 11/28/13 6:39am $104.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:30pm Reduced Football 307 Pittsburgh Steelers/Baltimore Ravens Over 41 -104* Comment -
GoBlue77SBR Hall of Famer
- 03-20-11
- 9166
#38what a rookie, +2.5 and +6.5. guess you never heard of key numbers in footballComment -
leetreaperBARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 10-23-10
- 34841
#39NFL Thanksgiving Day
Just a few thoughts regarding the NFL on Thanksgiving Day over the past 7 years
Home Favorites: 10-1 ATS (90%)
Road Favorites: 7- 3 ATS (70%)
17-4 overall (80%)
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NoleafcloverSBR MVP
- 06-06-13
- 1349
#40Well these are generally dog-sided lines, perhaps with some respect to that (at least pitt, oak, strike me as so.. I kinda like DET though). Or at least to the public's perception of that.
D2D, what would you say is your best sport?Comment -
boatofcapper177SBR Rookie
- 11-16-13
- 48
#41Nice Write up and went 2 w 4L in NBA lol not hating just saying! Follow me for winner! Today Pound on NFL GB packets +6! BOL
Well, well....the time has finally come. As November rolls into December and the snow and rain looms in the air above all of us, it can mean only one thing....
This time of year means the return of my picks. I have had enough time to watch the NHL and NBA, to determine what I think of the teams and how they are playing certain matchups. Usually I begin betting the NFL after the first few weeks, but this year life has been busier than normal....my focus has been on living my life and enjoying the great weather, but now my focus has changed.....I need to make some money folks!
I know there was a lot of speculation last year when I stopped posting picks....and I understand that guys. I had posted every day for 4 months straight, and when I stopped I know it was quite a coup. Frankly, I had a ton going on in my life....and none of it was positive. It was too bad about the timing, but frankly it had a lot more to do with life than it did to do with sports. Also, and this is a very important 'also', the NBA and NHL seasons had come to a close....as you know, those (especially the NBA, although I hit the last two months of NHL at a crazy rate) sports are my bread and butter.
Last year I cashed out an extra $17k from three major sites. That was enough to put down $6k on a new 3 Series Sport as well throw a little extra on my deposit on a sick condo a block from the hottest beach in Vancouver. That all came from a modest initial deposit on Bodog (I think I started with $250?). Anyway, the point is that I cashed out most of what I had, but was smart enough to leave behind enough funds to take another run this year.
Two days ago I got my first URGE of the year to bet, so I fired up 5dimes and made three plays, winning all three. Yesterday I made three plays as well and won two.....my one loss coming when Anaheim gave up three goals in 53 seconds to lose to Dallas after leading in the third period.
[ATTACH]62510[/ATTACH]
Today I got on things a little earlier, and because of the large number of games....I decided to post my picks. When I booted up SBR (something I hadn't done since my last post) I was pleased to see a number of unread messages from a lot of old friends. Sorry to those of you that messaged and never heard back....and thank you for all of the kind words and well wishes, it meant a lot.
Today's picks:
[ATTACH]62512[/ATTACH]
212321776-1 11/27/13 12:56pm $137.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 54 Washington Capitals -137* <small>vs</small> Ottawa Senators 212321776-2 11/27/13 12:56pm $100.00 $155.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 58 Buffalo Sabres +155* <small>vs</small> Montreal Canadiens 212321776-3 11/27/13 12:56pm $135.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 60 New Jersey Devils -135* <small>vs</small> Carolina Hurricanes 212321776-4 11/27/13 12:56pm $100.00 $120.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 61 Toronto Maple Leafs/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5½ +120* 212321776-5 11/27/13 12:56pm $100.00 $108.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 68 Detroit Red Wings +108* <small>vs</small> Boston Bruins 212321776-6 11/27/13 12:56pm $165.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 10:05pm Reduced Hockey 73 Chicago Blackhawks -165* <small>vs</small> Calgary Flames 212321776-7 11/27/13 12:56pm $100.00 $145.00 Pending 11/27/13 10:35pm Reduced Hockey 75 Los Angeles Kings +145* <small>vs</small> San Jose Sharks 212321444-1 11/27/13 12:52pm $135.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 705 Memphis Grizzlies -135* <small>vs</small> Boston Celtics 212321444-2 11/27/13 12:52pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 708 Brooklyn Nets -2 -105* <small>vs</small> Los Angeles Lakers 212321444-3 11/27/13 12:52pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 710 Cleveland Cavaliers +8½ -105* <small>vs</small> Miami Heat 212321444-4 11/27/13 12:52pm $103.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 713 Atlanta Hawks/Houston Rockets Over 207½ -103* 212321444-5 11/27/13 12:52pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 715 Washington Wizards/Milwaukee Bucks Over 190 -105* 212321444-6 11/27/13 12:52pm $109.00 $100.00 Pending 11/27/13 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 721 Golden State Warriors +5 -109* <small>vs</small> Dallas Mavericks
I am going to ask if I can get a volunteer from the world of SBR to do something for me....I would like a third party to keep track of my stats for me this time around. Last time I had a lot of questions about my record keeping (although not one of those couple of people could point out an actual issue, even though every pick was posted and recorded) and I want to avoid that.
A couple of quick things....
1) I won't ever be as 'involved' as I was last year, posting multiple times per day, etc. My life is busier than ever, having not only an amazing career, starting my own secondary business in August and dating an amazing new woman, I just will not have the time.
2) As always I will try and answer every single question on wager strategy, theory, etc.
3) I love posting my picks and the interaction with other posters here....so guys, let's keep it clean and friendly.
4) If you have advice please do not hesitate to post it on the thread.
5) Please keep your picks to your own thread. Last year I reached a point where I was seeing between 5000 and 8000 views of my thread per day, and frankly it was getting too cluttered for the people that just wanted to see my picks
6) If you follow and do not win....please do not blame me. As you may have heard the carnies yelling in the olden days....'You pays your money, you takes your chances'. This is gambling folks, and I do not profess to be any better at it than you or the next guy.
I am glad to be back on my own terms....and I hope you all understand that it wasn't the site itself that drove me away, or the posters....it was the events in my life and how it was affecting me. I had two weeks where I was not healthy, but from bad always comes good.....so here I am.
All the best to all of you and good luck with the games!
Dollars2DonutsComment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#42
Did you know that on the fourth Wednesday of February, when the moon is full and Madonna wears a white skirt, that the road team in the NHL has won 15 of the last 17 games?
I understand that there is SOME historical relevance here......I am not stupid, but frankly IMO these facts are given entirely too much weight in sports wagering......the past is the past, and current trends, individual matchups and other factors should be weighted well before historical data of more than one season old. Again, this is my opinion, and doesn't need to be yours.
GL today everyone!
D2DComment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#43
Thanks,
D2DComment -
NoleafcloverSBR MVP
- 06-06-13
- 1349
#44Thanks!
Re: trends, the question has always got to be, "what's the reason behind the trend?" Seems plausible to believe that on Thanksgiving, favorites play their hearts out and are the better team so they cover. I'd want to see the data going back more like 20 years though or at least a round number like 10 if we have to be lazy. 7 years is one of those fvcking numbers they do in trends that I absolutely hate. Dollars to donuts the 8th year back shows the opposite, so it's stat-padding.Comment -
Pete0SBR MVP
- 04-09-10
- 3849
#45D2D is back !!!Comment -
BawthSBR High Roller
- 02-25-13
- 131
#46Welcome back D2DComment -
CoreosSBR Sharp
- 01-18-13
- 464
#47Seriously, you come into someone else's thread to tout your own picks? Coming from the guy that was begging for who the best capper here was a week ago...whose ghost are you? LOL not hating just saying!Comment -
5mike5SBR Aristocracy
- 09-21-11
- 51983
#48this place is full of these clowns that do this. And his own pick fukkin tanked. Not surprisingComment -
DiamondBackSBR Hustler
- 05-16-12
- 84
#49So we have to go to Higher site to check record?
Be nice if it was printed here also.
Good luck in round 2 Dollars. Good to see you back after doing so well round 1.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#50I will see what we can do with getting it printed here daily. Sorry I didn't get my NBA and NHL picks up earlier....unfortunately my day has been crazy. Some picks to come shortly for later games.Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#51
This is it for tonight. Ilya Bryzgalov is back....and I personally think that he is going to be very good for the Oilers. Look for them to play a solid game tonight and the scoring to be at a minimum.
D2D212657692-1 11/28/13 8:03pm $50.00 $62.50 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers +125 <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators 212657692-2 11/28/13 8:03pm $120.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers/Nashville Predators Under 5½ -120 Comment -
DiamondBackSBR Hustler
- 05-16-12
- 84
#52I apologize for you having to put any thought to it d2d. I should of been more clear as I was hoping someone could throw up a recap. I get a fine display on my p.c. with elements site but for some reason I have to scroll like crazy on tablet.
Props to element for his site and again good luck.Comment -
El NinoSBR Posting Legend
- 05-03-12
- 18426
#53We shall see if Bryz's 5-hole is still
Comment -
High3rEl3m3ntSBR Hall of Famer
- 09-28-10
- 8022
#55I apologize for you having to put any thought to it d2d. I should of been more clear as I was hoping someone could throw up a recap. I get a fine display on my p.c. with elements site but for some reason I have to scroll like crazy on tablet.
Props to element for his site and again good luck.Comment -
fitguy67SBR Hall of Famer
- 03-13-11
- 5082
#56and the pope is catholic...
damn, D2D...glad to have you back...i just reminisced to HE a few days ago about you being one of the most gifted hi-volume multi-sport guyz in recent memory here...but that tryin to keep all the tailgatin' bastids happy all the time wore ya' down...
hope u got that same great D2D brain as before...but packaged in a new thicker-skinned IDGAF attitude!
D2D's back...and just in time to help fill the coffers for Chrismas!!Last edited by fitguy67; 11-28-13, 11:00 PM.Comment -
DeolSBR MVP
- 09-01-11
- 1340
#57Great call on the EDM game!Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#58
This is it for tonight. Ilya Bryzgalov is back....and I personally think that he is going to be very good for the Oilers. Look for them to play a solid game tonight and the scoring to be at a minimum.
D2D212657692-1 11/28/13 8:03pm $50.00 $62.50 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers +125 <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators 212657692-2 11/28/13 8:03pm $120.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers/Nashville Predators Under 5½ -120
and the pope is catholic...
damn, D2D...glad to have you back...i just reminisced to HE a few days ago about you being one of the most gifted hi-volume multi-sport guyz in recent memory here...but that tryin to keep all the tailgatin' bastids happy all the time wore ya' down...
hope u got that same great D2D brain as before...but packaged in a new thicker-skinned IDGAF attitude!
he's back...and just in time to help fill the coffers for Chrismas!!
Well, the biggest reason I am back (aside from the fact that I find it fun to share ideas and strategies) is the people. I am continually amazed at the number of people that have PM'd me, emailed me and even texted me.
I still think that my reasons for leaving were overstated....frankly, the biggest reason I wasn't around was that I was in the middle of moving (twice) and then, by the time I got settled in....there was no longer anything to bet on! While I know more about MLB than any other sport, I just could not find any traction there....I felt like I ended up guessing, and then second guessing my reasoning later....I felt like the ground was moving under me.
I wanted to start a little earlier in the NFL, but I wasn't hitting well enough on my predictions when I was air betting on my own.....
FG, I admit it, I will probably let people get to me here and there....it is how I am wired and I know it is a weakness....as for the 'high volume', that will never change. If I only have two or three bets out there on any given day during the season, I am inevitably booooored!
Great to be back and thanks for the warm welcome to everyone.Comment -
El NinoSBR Posting Legend
- 05-03-12
- 18426
#59I am going to be honest....record keeping this time means less to me....I spent a ton of time tracking 1500 picks over 6 months last year and it just about drove me mad. I am happy to let a fellow SBR'er to do it. If he wants to post here, or if somebody else does.....that is up to them.
This is it for tonight. Ilya Bryzgalov is back....and I personally think that he is going to be very good for the Oilers. Look for them to play a solid game tonight and the scoring to be at a minimum.
D2D212657692-1 11/28/13 8:03pm $50.00 $62.50 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers +125 <small>vs</small> Nashville Predators 212657692-2 11/28/13 8:03pm $120.00 $100.00 Pending 11/28/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 3 Edmonton Oilers/Nashville Predators Under 5½ -120 Good pucks picks
Comment -
DiamondBackSBR Hustler
- 05-16-12
- 84
#61Not so fast on the foots 1-3.
3-1 nowComment -
CoreosSBR Sharp
- 01-18-13
- 464
#63Great day D2D! Nice bounceback for NHL. Wish I saw your picks for today, but not complaining...went 7-1-1 on college BB & 8-0 on NFL. But gave half of it back on the college FBIIRC, you don't cap any college sports right??
Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#64
I cap college BBall late, like VERY LATE in the season. I find that the first 80% of the season I just don't have enough of a grasp to make plays. No college FBall for me though....just an NFL guy.
Guys, I will try and post my picks a little earlier tomorrow....just two days in I am not yet in the right routine.
D2DComment -
frostieSBR Sharp
- 10-16-11
- 277
#65welcome back d2d!Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#66Ok guys, lot's of road faves here today....which is not always a good thing....but for some reason it still all looks right.
Good Luck!
212780172-1 11/29/13 11:42am $106.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 4:05pm Reduced Hockey 57 Detroit Red Wings -106* <small>vs</small> New York Islanders 212780172-2 11/29/13 11:42am $100.00 $105.00 Pending 11/29/13 4:05pm Reduced Hockey 61 St. Louis Blues +105* <small>vs</small> San Jose Sharks 212780172-3 11/29/13 11:42am $100.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 5:05pm Reduced Hockey 64 Washington Capitals +100* <small>vs</small> Montreal Canadiens 212780172-4 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $56.00 Pending 11/29/13 6:05pm Reduced Hockey 65 Colorado Avalanche +112* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Wild 212780172-5 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $52.50 Pending 11/29/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 69 New Jersey Devils +105* <small>vs</small> Carolina Hurricanes 212780172-6 11/29/13 11:42am $50.00 $65.00 Pending 11/29/13 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 72 Buffalo Sabres +130* <small>vs</small> Toronto Maple Leafs 212780172-7 11/29/13 11:42am $134.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:35pm Reduced Hockey 73 Chicago Blackhawks -134* <small>vs</small> Dallas Stars 212779633-1 11/29/13 11:40am $52.50 $50.00 Pending 11/29/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 502 Charlotte Bobcats -5 -105* <small>vs</small> Milwaukee Bucks 212779633-2 11/29/13 11:40am $50.00 $52.50 Pending 11/29/13 7:35pm Reduced Basketball 508 Atlanta Hawks +105* <small>vs</small> Dallas Mavericks 212779633-3 11/29/13 11:40am $105.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 515 Golden State Warriors/Oklahoma City Thunder Over 203½ -105* 212779633-4 11/29/13 11:40am $107.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 517 Washington Wizards/Indiana Pacers Under 187½ -107* 212779633-5 11/29/13 11:40am $125.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 9:05pm Reduced Basketball 523 Phoenix Suns -125* <small>vs</small> Utah Jazz 212779633-6 11/29/13 11:40am $102.00 $100.00 Pending 11/29/13 10:05pm Reduced Basketball 525 Los Angeles Clippers -4 -102* <small>vs</small> Sacramento Kings Totals: $1,131.50 $1,081.00
D2DComment -
iWinSBR High Roller
- 01-16-12
- 244
#67Let's get it today
Do you have a record of your picks yet?Comment -
l3randonfSBR Sharp
- 04-11-13
- 396
#68Someone other than D2D will be keeping track of the record.
How does one find a reliable source for who the starting NHL goalie will be for a given team? I was using daily face-off...but...the other day they had Lehtonen starting against the Ducks but at gametime it was Ellis in net! WTF!Comment -
Dollars2DonutsSBR Hall of Famer
- 02-07-13
- 8803
#69So far I am 13-9 (technically it is 13-8, but the first day I placed two wagers at two different odds on the same game and HE, who is doing the tracking, has said that he will be tracking multiple bets on one game as different wagers....this means sometimes I may go 0-3 or 4-0 (etc.) on one game).
Here is HE's link for my stats:
http://www.advisortracking.com/p/st-dollars2donuts.html
Someone other than D2D will be keeping track of the record.
How does one find a reliable source for who the starting NHL goalie will be for a given team? I was using daily face-off...but...the other day they had Lehtonen starting against the Ducks but at gametime it was Ellis in net! WTF!
http://www2.dailyfaceoff.com/starting-goalies/
BUT....and this is a very important BUT....the starting goalie is often a curveball that people cannot hit. You need to understand the makeup of the team, and how the starting goalie (if it is the backup, especially is he plays a very small number of games) will affect the teams' psyche. To just place a bet against a team because their backup is in net is a HUGE mistake.
Everyone needs to understand that the people that set the lines KNOW who the starter is at least as well as us. That means those lines are already adjusted to how Vegas believes the backup will affect the game. One of my favourite plays is finding a slight road dog, that is playing well and in the 2nd game of a 3 games in four nights and is starting their backup. Sounds like a lot of work....but if you can find this I assure you you will pick up more $$$ than you drop.
Also, sometimes the starting goalie will change at the last second due to illness, small muscle issue in warmup, etc. These things cannot be helped and will not affect you over 1000 games as it will always equal out.
D2DComment -
NoleafcloverSBR MVP
- 06-06-13
- 1349
#70Why do you like GSW/OKC > 203.5? OKC has a very solid 3-pt D, but that may be who they played, I didn't look that far into it because I'm newish to NBA.Comment
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