SBR Lets All Agree to put the Public Money Angle to Rest

No coincidences · 10-21-13, 10:22 PM

WTF are you talking about?

80% of the public was on the Giants? Link?

TPowell · 10-21-13, 11:21 PM

if every sharp/public split hit, books would have to set lines 7-10 points off

iifold · 10-21-13, 11:23 PM

There are no shortcuts in life...

You must adapt constantly...

Hard work is ones only option...

Luck is a curse...

Gee · 10-21-13, 11:23 PM

Yup, after tonight's game, fading the public is officially dead.

With that kind of sample size, I don't think anyone could even argue with you.

5mike5 · 10-21-13, 11:25 PM

betting games based on who the so called "public" is on....

Seaweed · 10-21-13, 11:26 PM

Big bear, next time

boeing power · 10-21-13, 11:27 PM

Public wins 48% of the time,

not gonna get rich fading the public,

won't go broke though.

Filmoz · 10-21-13, 11:33 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2600032-careful-fading-public.html

Minnesota Niice · 10-21-13, 11:33 PM

Vikings had plenty of chances to cover the 3 1/2 the odds makers do not decide the game down to simple catches and 1st downs its a number to get equal bets on both sides.. I dont get how when the public wins one they say "oh book makers gave em this one".. that is complete bullshat.. the vikes had their chances to score its just the way the ball bounces sometimes.. If the vikings put in the fumble recovery, or returned the should be interception that hit him between the numbers you would all be on here saying "told you the public would get fukked" "smart bookmakers" its a damned if you do damned if you dont situation and people dont realize that.. It comes down to how the way the ball bounces that night, not oddsmakers

Big Bear · 10-22-13, 12:46 AM

i'm just saying i have a clear head now. No more over thinking

Popcorn Trick · 10-22-13, 01:33 AM

It's been pretty much over in the NFL for at least 2 years now.

jjgold · 10-22-13, 05:54 AM

I laugh at the people that talk about public money and betting percentages absolutely complete clowns

SBR_John · 10-22-13, 11:11 AM

I would use good consensus data as a tool, not as the gospel. Our data showed 68% of the public on the Giants. If I was going to bet the Giants I might lower my stake or pass. I wouldn't use the data to flip my pick though.

It can help with trap games that look too good. When you see 80% on a game, like Denver over Indy, you have to really ask yourself did the bookmakers really miss the line this badly or is this a suckers bet?

Big Bear · 10-22-13, 11:15 AM

Originally posted by jjgold

I laugh at the people that talk about public money and betting percentages absolutely complete clowns

look man i agree with you.

I didnt come up with this fade the public thing on my own

its something i picked up over time from posters here at SBR.

Its a bad habbit and i am now a better capper for letting it go.

For years the only thing i studied was matchups and then i started to get away from it... i started trying interpret line movement, started trying to be contrarian, see outside the box... etc.. just simply over thinking.

From now on i will never even look at who the public is on.

Big Bear · 10-25-13, 11:46 AM

This has already helped me..

with my new way of thinking i didnt even check to see if public was on panthers last night

jjgold · 10-25-13, 11:54 AM

Bear good gamblers make adjustments

I never make them and getting destroyed

Minnesota Niice · 10-25-13, 11:57 AM

The public does not lose 100% of the time and if the public wins one, oh well to Vegas, because the squares who won money on that game have zero money management skills and will be right back to back the next square play on the board and give it right back.. Vegas does not lose. I repeat. VEGAS DOES NOT LOSE

Louisvillekid1 · 10-25-13, 11:57 AM

Don't put any angle to rest, you use them in combination with each as it's all situational.

all info is valuable

konck · 10-25-13, 12:07 PM

Here's the whole thing in a nutshell. Betting against the public really is 100% the best way to go. Why is it? Easy what do gamblers have in common...THEY LOSE if you find the biggest loser bet against him. We can all find stats that pt to betting the same team it usually leads the same direction. Why do people not bet against the public....because the times they get beat they say to themselves man I really liked the winning side and Boom back to betting public. I will never stray from betting against public money but even more find me that loser I will fade him to victory....you just have to stomach some tough losses. I post winners my pound it series was 17-8 for over +10 units ...if you look at my POSTED MLB picks the last 7 I go 6-1 all dogs Im 54th in BTP IM 5th in Broke dik fuks fadefadefade my brother

konck · 10-25-13, 12:10 PM

But nothing is 100% I do bet public sides once in a while rare but I do. Right now I have bet Denver over every week it hasnt missed the havent made a number high enough. Seems like Denver is an easy 60 or better number each week yet they wont post that. I will bet Denver over until I miss. BTW this year I bet 14 total in NFL mostly when the over is not the public side (except denver which is always the public side) Im 11-3

thetrinity · 10-25-13, 12:39 PM

sharp line moves are more important

Sam Odom · 10-25-13, 12:44 PM

Some (a few) posters agonize over lines & line movement. Trying to figure-out what the Books want them to bet

Only two options...

1) Pick winners

2) Arbitrage

Jakenv21 · 10-25-13, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by konck

Here's the whole thing in a nutshell. Betting against the public really is 100% the best way to go. Why is it? Easy what do gamblers have in common...THEY LOSE if you find the biggest loser bet against him. We can all find stats that pt to betting the same team it usually leads the same direction. Why do people not bet against the public....because the times they get beat they say to themselves man I really liked the winning side and Boom back to betting public. I will never stray from betting against public money but even more find me that loser I will fade him to victory....you just have to stomach some tough losses. I post winners my pound it series was 17-8 for over +10 units ...if you look at my POSTED MLB picks the last 7 I go 6-1 all dogs Im 54th in BTP IM 5th in Broke dik fuks fadefadefade my brother

Bingo

Jikos · 10-25-13, 01:16 PM

Public trends shouldnt influence your actual picks. You can be on either side and still win/lose. One thing you can consider though. If you like a pick that the public likes bet the current line, if you like the side against the public consider waiting to get a better line. That is the only edge you will get by knowing who the public is on.

boonie26 · 10-25-13, 11:34 PM

"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect." Mark Twain

slacker00 · 10-26-13, 06:56 AM

I'm about as lazy as it gets, but fade theories are for those who have simply given up trying.

Minnesota Niice · 10-26-13, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

I'm about as lazy as it gets, but fade theories are for those who have simply given up trying.

Ignorant comment, I 100% disagree

Jago2008 · 10-26-13, 07:47 AM

We're all guessing here essentially make sure it's educated, that includes line movement and percentages, RLM is important.

Thor4140 · 10-26-13, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by SBR_John

I would use good consensus data as a tool, not as the gospel. Our data showed 68% of the public on the Giants. If I was going to bet the Giants I might lower my stake or pass. I wouldn't use the data to flip my pick though.

It can help with trap games that look too good. When you see 80% on a game, like Denver over Indy, you have to really ask yourself did the bookmakers really miss the line this badly or is this a suckers bet?

UR CONSENSUS here on this site (not the prick contest) is misleading at best. The KC/Hou game last week is a prime example. I can get info from three different books in three different parts of the country and not one of them had money on Houston but somehow ur consensus site had two to one Houston money. To trust those books to give out this info is naive.

slacker00 · 10-26-13, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by Minnesota Niice

Ignorant comment, I 100% disagree

Ok, I'm not THAT lazy. I was being sarcastic.

downsouth · 10-26-13, 09:34 AM

Big bear sharp as a beach ball

yisman · 10-26-13, 09:44 AM

big bear, make this thread useful and start posting your selections so people can fade you rather than the public.

k13 · 10-26-13, 09:52 AM

Don't fade public when sharp line moves occur. Crossing key points.

-2.5, -3, -3.5, -4,

still fading? +4 sounds delicious now....lol

stevenash · 10-26-13, 10:47 AM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/2643210-fact-can-not-disputed.html#post20033378