Week 2 NFL early thoughts

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:21 PM

Rams @ Atlanta

Atlanta should win, Matty Ice wins at home but 7 seems kind of high. Atlanta's offensive line was getting pushed around by the Saints last week. This week they face one of the better D-Lines in the league. Robert Quinn quietly had 3 sacks last week and he had 10.5 last year. Chris Long has racked up double digit sacks 2 years in a row. Michael Brockers had 4 from the inside last year. Look at how good the Rams LB core looks. Ogletree the rookie had 7 tackles last week, Laurenitis and Will Witherspoon? Then they have a pro bowl corner in Finnegan and Jenkins.

The Falcons have some key injuries with Asante Samuel and Roddy White. Samuel's fill ins were rookies and they did a great job last week against the Saints.

I like Jeff Fisher as an underdog. I think the Rams are a team to watch. Maybe you get a Falcons win, Rams cover scenario? The Rams did put up 27 points against a legit Cardinals defense, this week's Falcons defense isn't as good.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:23 PM

San Diego @ Eagles -7.5

1 half of football with the up tempo offense, and RG3 stinking up the joint and POOF, this line goes from Eagles -3 to Eagles -7.5. One half of football moved this line 4 points and the hook.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:35 PM

Dallas @ Kansas City -3

In my preseason predictions I picked Dallas to go to the playoffs. In order for that to happen they have to win enough games like this. They are going to be a live +3 dog in this game. I like live dogs getting 3 or more points.

Dallas was 5-3 ATS on the road last year.
Giants - Beat the Giants on the opening game of the year as a dog
Seattle - Got blown out, one crappy road game but it was understandably @ Seattle
Baltimore - Lost by 2 to the SB winning Ravens but Dallas did cover the spread
Carolina - Won on the road and covered as a 1 point fav
Atlanta - Lost by 6, the spread was 4, failed to cover but it was close and Atlanta is very good at home.
Philly - Line was -1 and Dallas won and covered by 15
Cincinnati - Won as a dog against a playoff team
Washington - Lost by 10 to the playoff Redskins

That's a pretty tough road schedule against 5 playoff teams including the champs, @Seattle and @ ATL are extra hard, then Giants who were coming off a SB victory, and the 7-9 Panthers.

Jason Garrett was 2-0 vs Andy Reid last year and it is do or die time for the Cowboys. Alex Smith probably won't turn the ball over 6 times but then again he isn't going to throw for 450 yards either.

I like Dallas and I probably want to take them with the 3 points here.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:36 PM

Miami @ Indy -3

Is this because the Raiders almost beat the Colts or is this a sucker bet? It looks like the Colts are getting pounded. This could be a sucker bet. Are the Colts good enough for a trap bet?

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:41 PM

Titans @ Houston -9.5

Titans upset the Steelers last week but Jake Locker was only 11/20 for 125 yards and the Steelers leading rusher ran for 19 yards. Neither of those two things can happen this week.

No way the Texans leading rusher runs for only 19 yards.
No way Jake Locker can only complete 11 passes this week.

Houston's defense is good enough to slow down the Titans run and force Jake to be a QB and not a game manager.

9.5 points seems high but I'd lean on Houston winning by double digits.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 07:47 PM

Redskins @ GB -7.5

Regular season the Redskins only lost 6 games last year. Their losses were by 3, 6, 7, 4, 15 and 8.

The Redskins are getting 7.5 here which looks really good.

The problem is that the Redskins won the division last year and I don't see them making the playoffs this year. In fact after that beat down by Philly they could finish in last place in the NFC East depending on health and the luck of the ball.

GB lost last week to the 49ers but I had to say they looked impressive, at least on offense.

I picked GB to go to the super bowl this year, and I picked the Redskins to NOT make the playoffs. I obviously think GB wins this game at home, but will they cover? The Redskins won their games or kept them close last year. I'd like GB in a teaser when the line is -7.5 because I feel strongly that they win this game.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:03 PM

Cleveland @ Baltimore -6.5

I am of the opinion that Baltimore's defense will be better than they were last year. Statistically speaking and in real life. They got shredded in Denver by Manning and sometimes it takes time to mesh. This week they are at home against Brandon Weeden which is a relief.

Baltimore only beat Cleveland by 10 and 8 points last year, the line for this game is 6.5 but will probably go up to 7.

Baltimore had extra time to prep for this game
Baltimore needs to figure out who to throw the ball to this year.
Baltimore has a number of injuries

I tend to like Baltimore -6.5in their home opener, not sure if I will like it strong enough for a play.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:04 PM

Carolina @ Buffalo +3

Realistically I am probably not going to play this game. I have to watch the tape on Seattle/Carolina which could sway me but probably not. I'd lean Carolina here but most likely a no play for me.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:07 PM

Minnesota @ Chicago -6.5

Minnesota made the playoffs last year but I picked them to go 4-12 this year and be one of the 2 worst teams in the NFC in terms of record. For that to happen, I think they lose games like this and I think they do. I taped the Bengals/Bears game last week and still have to watch it.

I'd lean Bears -6.5.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:08 PM

Saints @ Tampa +3.5

Looks like a trap. Looks like one of those games the Saints win by 3 at the very end to screw the public.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:09 PM

Detroit @ Arizona +1.5

I'd rather focus on other games. No opinion here.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:10 PM

Jags @ Oakland -6

In my preseason predictions I have these as 2 of the worst teams in the NFL.

How do you bet on the Jags on the road
but how do you lay 6 points with the Raiders?

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:17 PM

Denver @ Giants +4.5

I picked Denver win the Super Bowl, and I like the match up here.JPP and the Giants pass rush was not the same. If they don't get a pass rush on Peyton they are going to get torched and I think they will. Manning should have no less than 4 TD passes.

On the other side you can say the same thing, I don't think Denver will generate pass rush at all on Eli and I think he will have a good game through the air too.

The instinct for me here is the over. I see the O/U set at 55. I'd be shocked if this was a 24-21 type game for 45 points. I'd be pretty surprised if the score was even 27-21 for 48 points. Somebody will be in the 30's or 40's and the other team should be in the mid 20's or higher.

One of the big factors that will determine this game is red zone conversions. Are they getting 7's or 3's? The Giants got stopped at the 1 vs the Cowboys.

Also is Fumble hands going to start for the Giants again?

I lean Denver and the Over and will probably play 1 or both.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:19 PM

SF @ Seattle -3

In my preseason picks I picked SF to have the best record in the NFC and earn the #1 bye. I went out on a limb and said the Hawks will miss the playoffs. For that to happen SF has to win games like this and I think they do. Get ready for Russell Wilson to shave his eye brow off.

I like SF +3 and SF ML

Louisvillekid1 · 09-11-13, 08:19 PM

GL this week Gold

t-wizzle · 09-11-13, 08:21 PM

Rams will battle Atlanta all game.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:23 PM

Steelers @ Bengals -7

As much as the books swung the Eagles line in their favor, I feel like the books really lost a lot of respect for the Steelers last week. I picked the Steelers to miss the playoffs last year as I saw that team just rot from inside out with their offensive line. They did something about it and I like their schedule this year and I picked them to make the playoffs this year over the trendy Bengals - I picked the Ravens to win the division.

Well I would have probably counted this as a Bengals win going into the year, but this line seemed to move. If the Steelers had beat the Titans like they were expected to do, what would this line be, maybe Bengals -4.5? Maybe Bengals -6 at best?

I still think the Steelers on MNF here aren't getting the respect from the trendy Bengals. I'd lean Steelers +7 here.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Rams will battle Atlanta all game.

Look at the Rams front 7. That's sick.

The Rams have a tough division, but if they were to swap spots with say the Colts or Miami or San Diego I mean they should be a playoff team.

I liked Richardson better than Steven Jackson last year which is I believe why they were so quick to let him go. He wasn't worth the money.

The thing is the Falcons should win at home, but I agree the Rams turn this into a game.

C-Gold · 09-11-13, 08:37 PM

So here is a summary of my leans. Not plays but leans.

Thur
Jets @ Pats - Jets +12

Sun
Rams @ Falcons - Rams +7
SD @ Phila - SD +7.5
Dallas @ KC - Dallas +3
Miami @ Indy - Indy -3 but this could be a trap
Titans @ Houston - Houston -9.5
Redskins @ GB - I like GB for a teaser
Cleveland @ Balt - Balt -6.5
Carolina @ Bills - Panthers -3
Vikings @ Bears - Bears -6.5
Saints @ Tampa - Bucs +3.5 because this smells like a trap
Detroit @ Arizona - I guess lean the home dog
Jags @ Oakland - Jags +6
Den @ Giants - Broncos and Over
SF @ Seattle - 49ers +3 and ML
Steelers @ Bengals - Steelers +7

C-Gold · 09-12-13, 08:40 AM

My card is probably looking something like this.

SD +7.5 - wait on this because you probably get it at 8
Dallas +3
SF +3
Tampa +3.5
GB/Baltimore teaser
Denver -4.5
Denver/Giants over 55

Rams +7, Bears -6.5 and Steelers +7 might miss the cut.

PickoMoff · 09-12-13, 10:39 AM

BOL!

C-Gold · 09-13-13, 10:42 AM

That Jets +12 was a gift. Like I was saying, bellicheck had no interest to blow out the Jets, he just wanted to walk out with a win considering he was short handed. The Patriots should have drafted Kenny Stills. Those young receivers were a disaster. Brady completed under 50% of his passes. I am glad that will shut up the Patriots fans. Brady's stats sucked because of his receivers.

Geno had an awful game. He was throwing to poor locations, he was holding onto the ball too long sometimes, and sometimes he was scared of pressure that wasn't there. 3 picks, no touchdowns, 50% completions, sacks. I thought the Jets O-Line played well.

Look at what Bellicheck was doing on 3rd and long? He was throwing short passes in front of the sticks and he was perfectly content on punting. They ran the ball on 3rd down on their last possession in a 13-10 game because he had no fear of Geno marching down the field and beating him. No respect for the young black QB. If the Patriots played a team with a decent QB they would have got blown out. The only reason they won with 13 points is because Geno sucked that bad.

C-Gold · 09-13-13, 01:13 PM

Watched the tape on the Seahawks/Panthers last night. First of all Chris Meyers and Tim Ryan are an awful cast to call the game.

Interesting stat in the game, Russell Wilson completed 25% of his passes outside of the pocket last year. That makes sense because he's only 5'10 and seeing over the line is harder for him compared to a 6'4 quarterback. The Panthers D shut down Lynch and Wilson didn't look good in the pocket. He held onto the ball too long in the Red Zone and Charles Johnson got a nice sack fumble. Wilson's stats in the game were decent but I don't think he played like an elite or even good QB at all. He had a rough preseason too. He didn't look comfortable in the pocket at all and his stats were elevated do to dump offs but he did play better in the 2nd half. Sea didn't score a td until Q4. I just look at what wilson did and what Kaepernick did in week 1 and these guys aren't even in the same area code.

I didn't like Cam either. On 3rd downs he was consistently throwing balls in front of the sticks. 3rd and 4 and he throws a 2 yard pass to Olsen that he has to dive for? 3rd and 10 and he throws another 2 yard pass. He was doing this over and over again. He made a bad throw that normally gets picked off by Richard Sherman but wasn't.

I liked how Carolina's offensive line played. They beat Seattle's front 7. I thought Deangelo Williams could have done more with the blocking he had.

I was impressed by Carolina's defense. Kuechley, Star, Johnson, #30 Godfrey, greg hardy, Thomas Davis these guys played really well. DE #90 got ejected for throwing a punch at Seattle's Right tackle but I sort of don't blame him. He was getting pushed in the back and went to push the guy's face mask but it was right in front of the ref and he got ejected. Steve Smith told his teammate to get the F off the field and the crowd was booing. Then Russell Wilson held on to the ball too long and got hit with a sack fumble. I think star Luetilila and Luke Kuechley are really turning this defense around. They will be tough to score on at home. Carolina is certainly good enough to beat New Orleans and Atlanta at home.

I lost on the Carolina +3 last week but it was the right call. You can't win them all. Deangelo Williams fumbled at the 7 yard line before the go ahead score with 5 min left in the game. Carolina would have been ahead by 2 and would have probably lost by 1 or maybe won the game.

MoneyLineDawg · 09-13-13, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

That Jets +12 was a gift. Like I was saying, bellicheck had no interest to blow out the Jets, he just wanted to walk out with a win considering he was short handed. The Patriots should have drafted Kenny Stills. Those young receivers were a disaster. Brady completed under 50% of his passes. I am glad that will shut up the Patriots fans. Brady's stats sucked because of his receivers.

Geno had an awful game. He was throwing to poor locations, he was holding onto the ball too long sometimes, and sometimes he was scared of pressure that wasn't there. 3 picks, no touchdowns, 50% completions, sacks. I thought the Jets O-Line played well.

Look at what Bellicheck was doing on 3rd and long? He was throwing short passes in front of the sticks and he was perfectly content on punting. They ran the ball on 3rd down on their last possession in a 13-10 game because he had no fear of Geno marching down the field and beating him. No respect for the young black QB. If the Patriots played a team with a decent QB they would have got blown out. The only reason they won with 13 points is because Geno sucked that bad.

Geno played very well early.....1st throw right up the seam, Hill fumbles.....Later on in the 1st half he hit a perfect 40 yard pass over Clyde Gates' shoulder and it flat out bounced off him......Threw a touchdown that Gates dropped again

Obviously in the 4th quarter he played terrible but I thought he was making some good throws early.....The receivers dropped a bunch of passes for him leading up to that though

Looked like a rookie pretty much.....I see some talent that can be worked with, just gunna be alot of growing pains

Vinnie Paz · 09-13-13, 01:25 PM

Good write up gold, that luke keuchly is a monster, guy gonna be real special. Good shit bro

DoctorX79 · 09-13-13, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by C-Gold

Detroit @ Arizona +1.5

I'd rather focus on other games. No opinion here.

Arizona!

C-Gold · 09-13-13, 04:32 PM

Watched the Bengals/Bears game. The Bengals looked like they outplayed the Bears this game but the Bengals awful coaching lost them the game.

Bengals were up maybe 21-10 through late Q3 and the Bears offense was doing nothing. At that point I was shocked the Bears would come back and win this game. I really didn't like the Marc Trestman offense, it was boring. Sometimes these coaches change things and make things so complicated the Bears offense had little to no downfield presence. The Bears have 2 huge receivers and a huge tight end but they didn't throw the ball downfield until late in the game. The only thing I give Trestman credit for is running the same defense the Bears ran last year and not changing the scheme when the team is built to run that kind of defense.

Marvin Lewis should be embarrassed. 8 penalties. 3 bad turnovers, blowing 2 timeouts on 1 play. They were disorganized and had 12 men on the field. The Bengals were out of timeouts and stopped the Bears to get the ball back and then Ray Mauluga flips out and throws one of the Bears lineman right in front of the ref which ended the game and didn't give Andy Dalton a chance to win the game. Andy Dalton played a pretty good game, the Bengals have skilled position players on offense, depth on defense, they were outplaying the Bears but then lose due to poor coaching by Starvin Marvin.

C-Gold · 09-13-13, 04:37 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Good write up gold, that luke keuchly is a monster, guy gonna be real special. Good shit bro

I like that passion he played with. There was a play where Doug Baldwin ran an end around and Keuchly ran the WR down to the sideline and tackled him hard and was talking trash to him. The guy is everywhere. He was everywhere in college and he is everywhere in the pros. The defense is on the up and up. Charles Johnson, Greg Hardy, Thomas Davis, Star Latuilala gives them that push they were missing in the middle.

C-Gold · 09-13-13, 04:46 PM

Originally posted by MoneyLineDawg

Geno played very well early.....1st throw right up the seam, Hill fumbles.....Later on in the 1st half he hit a perfect 40 yard pass over Clyde Gates' shoulder and it flat out bounced off him......Threw a touchdown that Gates dropped again

Obviously in the 4th quarter he played terrible but I thought he was making some good throws early.....The receivers dropped a bunch of passes for him leading up to that though

Looked like a rookie pretty much.....I see some talent that can be worked with, just gunna be alot of growing pains

Geno completed 43% of his passes
0 TDs
3 INT
15 completions, 20 incompletions

He was inaccurate with his throws.
He was throwing balls to the wrong spots, not throwing to outside shoulder when needed etc.

His pocket awareness was horrendous. He was scared when there was really a clean pocket, and he didn't feel the rush when they was a pass rush. He took 4 sacks and I wouldn't say the Patriots pass rush even looked that good.

But it's more than that. What about the 2 times he had wide open guys in the endzone and he didn't see them? He could have had touchdowns but he couldn't properly read the coverage. It's not just about the 3 INTs, it's about the 0Tds when he had opportunities.

WTF was he thinking on that final pick?

Notice how Bellicheck/Brady ran the offense? 3rd and long and they had no problem with a run or short pass and punting to the Jets. They never felt threatened at all by Geno. This is coming from the same Bellicheck that would go for 4th and 2 from his own 30 yard line when Peyton Manning was on the other side of the field. The Pats never thought Geno would march his guys down field and tie or win the game. It was a terrible showing even for a rookie. Bad throws, bad pocket awareness, and missing open receivers. It was a disaster.

Overall I give him an F.

Vinnie Paz · 09-13-13, 10:12 PM

Geno has such a fukkin noodle arm its unreal

C-Gold · 09-15-13, 08:51 AM

Wow that Rams line is now +5.5

Roddy White and Julio Jones are banged up.

After watching the Panthers I like them laying 3 more.

I am going to start a thread with picks.

C-Gold · 09-15-13, 08:54 AM

Originally posted by C-Gold

My card is probably looking something like this.

SD +7.5 - wait on this because you probably get it at 8
Dallas +3
SF +3
Tampa +3.5
GB/Baltimore teaser
Denver -4.5
Denver/Giants over 55

Rams +7, Bears -6.5 and Steelers +7 might miss the cut.

I wouldn't want to bet on the Saints here that the line feels fishy, but I don't want to bet on Josh Freeman right now either. Even his teammates don't believe in him. A lazy QB is a loser QB over time.

Bears should win and cover but they didn't look good through 3 quarters last week. I didn't like what I saw from the Trestman offense. Didn't stretch the field at all, it was runs and short passes and a select few passes late in the game. The o-line still looked crappy too.

C-Gold · 09-15-13, 07:25 PM

Almost every game right, even the leans.

ksnooksk · 09-15-13, 07:28 PM

Well done sir!