Djokerman vs Nadal

El Nino · 09-09-13, 02:22 PM

Made a bet a few rounds ago Nadal to win US Open (+125). So I will be rooting that in. GL, Rocket.

Russian Rocket · 09-09-13, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Made a bet a few rounds ago Nadal to win US Open (+125). So I will be rooting that in. GL, Rocket.

yisman · 09-09-13, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Made a bet a few rounds ago Nadal to win US Open (+125). So I will be rooting that in. GL, Rocket.

You reminded me. I have a points freeplay bet on Nadal (should have two but Carseller lied to me):

2013 US OPEN- TO WIN OUTRIGHT
[17] RAFAEL NADAL +600

50.00 / 300.00

El Nino · 09-09-13, 02:50 PM

Originally posted by yisman

You reminded me. I have a points freeplay bet on Nadal (should have two but Carseller lied to me):

2013 US OPEN- TO WIN OUTRIGHT
[17] RAFAEL NADAL +600

50.00 / 300.00

Shocking.

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by yisman

They're not worthless.

If you have a large enough sample, HTH is the most valuable of all the numbers.

Just because one guy is playing particularly well doesn't mean HTH becomes worthless.

If you want to start parsing each match, I guess anything pre-2011 for Djokovic is worthless because that's when he became the best in the world? No. It all factors in.

Nadal wasn't injured in any of those matches. Was he 100% physically? Probably, or close to it, considering how he performed otherwise in the tournaments where he lost to Djokovic.

he's rarely been 100% in the last few years so its not likely...he's been pretty much an enigma the past couple of years because his knees among other things

unless you can share that info accurately the rest isnt detailed enough to factor it in....obviously a thorough analysis would require that info but i dont think its necessary in this case...i have rafa winning relatively easy (as in not going five sets)

does this mean youre picking joker to win?

yisman · 09-09-13, 02:55 PM

I'm aware of Nadal's knees.

But if you look at the tournaments where Djokovic beat him, he obviously was not injured. He didn't have much of a problem beating inferior players. Is he only injured when he plays Djokovic?

The last time they played in the US Open, Nadal had beaten Roddick and Murray handily to reach the finals. In fact, he had only lost one set the entire tournament entering the final. Then he played Djokovic in the final.

And yes, I am betting Djokovic. To ignore the facts is folly.

Hardcoar · 09-09-13, 03:00 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

Made a bet a few rounds ago Nadal to win US Open (+125). So I will be rooting that in. GL, Rocket.

That is some insane value right there...

CASH IT!!!

yisman · 09-09-13, 03:01 PM

But wait, there's more:

How many sets has Djokovic lost this tournament? Three. How many sets did Djokovic lose in 2011 before the final? You guessed it. Three.

This year, Djokovic is coming off a grueling five setter in the semis. In 2011, Djokovic was also coming off a grueling five setter in the semis, having dropped the first two sets to Federer before coming back.

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 03:17 PM

How come they wont mention one thing on espn about this tennis match? Not even on their ticker

Geez the ticker even mentions the Mayweather match this Saturday.

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 03:33 PM

Pardon the interruption just started. 7 topics yet not one about this tennis match.

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 03:42 PM

nine topics now. Mike Wallaces one catch seems to be a bigger topic than this championship tennis match.

Jaug · 09-09-13, 03:44 PM

I guess US is embarrassed by the skill of their tennis players.

Russian Rocket · 09-09-13, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by Jaug

I guess US is embarrassed by the skill of their tennis players.

ouch

El Nino · 09-09-13, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Thor4140

nine topics now. Mike Wallaces one catch seems to be a bigger topic than this championship tennis match.

It's ESPN. MNF is on tonight. ESPN does not publicize their competition's sports. They barely talked about the Stanley Cup. Business as usual. Not sure why you're shocked by this.

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 03:51 PM

Originally posted by yisman

He didn't have much of a problem beating inferior players. Is he only injured when he plays Djokovic?

i know you're smart enough to see the pretty bad error in this logic

good luck with your bet

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 03:54 PM

the real question is why are you watching fukkin PTI or any espn talking head garbage?

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by El Nino

It's ESPN. MNF is on tonight. ESPN does not publicize their competition's sports. They barely talked about the Stanley Cup. Business as usual. Not sure why you're shocked by this.

Sports are sports. They are gonna talk about Serena next so maybe after that they talk about today's match. Oh and nobody talks about shitty hockey.

Eejit · 09-09-13, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by InTheDrink

the real question is why are you watching fukkin PTI or any espn talking head garbage?

Haven't watched ESPN in I don't know how long

I can't believe people who gamble actually watch ESPN to gain knowledge its mind boggling

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 04:00 PM

three seconds about it to hear the one douchebags pick.

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by Eejit

Haven't watched ESPN in I don't know how long

I can't believe people who gamble actually watch ESPN to gain knowledge its mind boggling

i can't believe any winning gambler would actually say something like that. Which means one thing.

Thor4140 · 09-09-13, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by InTheDrink

the real question is why are you watching fukkin PTI or any espn talking head garbage?

a successful gambler like myself pools all sources and knows what to take out of all of them.

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Thor4140

a successful gambler like myself pools all sources and knows what to take out of all of them.

relax god of thunder

espn rots your mind

if your a winning player like you say then your winning in spite of whatever you hear on it...particularly PTI, around the horn, first take and all that other shit programming

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 04:09 PM

lets get it on!

yisman · 09-09-13, 04:11 PM

There's no error. It's sound.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-13, 04:15 PM

Let's see if this is another SBR consensus blood bath. Seems like the majority were on Nadal.

Cookie Monster · 09-09-13, 04:16 PM

I am small on Djoko +128 at matchbook. He just won point 1, and I like what I saw. This has the small of an epic game.

InTheDrink · 09-09-13, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by yisman

There's no error. It's sound.

not at all

it's pretty basic logic to realize a guy has to have his game/health in better shape to beat the best player in the world than he would lesser players

jjgold · 09-09-13, 04:19 PM

They met 37 times already unreal

slug fest already

Jaug · 09-09-13, 04:23 PM

Nader looking good early

Russian Rocket · 09-09-13, 04:29 PM

...and here we go- first break for Nadya

jjgold · 09-09-13, 04:31 PM

Nadal is so fukkin sharp again

EaglesPhan36 · 09-09-13, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by jjgold

Nadal is so fukkin sharp again

Over-Under on the # of times that JJ sells out one player and moves to the other side and then back again ... 4.5.

yisman · 09-09-13, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by InTheDrink

not at all

it's pretty basic logic to realize a guy has to have his game/health in better shape to beat the best player in the world than he would lesser players

Yes, but if he wins convincingly against lesser competition, like he did in the example I gave, that shows he's healthy. Nadal would not get to the final of a major having dropped only a single set if he wasn't healthy. He won the sets convincingly in the 2011 US Open, and lost only one before the final.

That's pretty basic logic.

yisman · 09-09-13, 04:35 PM

two balls already I saw Djokovic just stood and there and didn't even try to return them. Not a good sign.

Bet10Heinekens · 09-09-13, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Let's see if this is another SBR consensus blood bath. Seems like the majority were on Nadal.

Bloodbath burial will be the over on this match