Brewers Look Like Live Underdogs Wednesday Night

[Smoke]

You guys are too hung up on winning percentage when the ultimate goal should be to make money. Who cares if you have a winning percentage of 40% if your average price is, let's say, +165? If I could do that, I'd gladly take that over winning 60% but losing money because average price was -155.

not trying to be an ass but whats your forum record and ytd units for mlb this year?

[RavensFan2k3]

You guys are too hung up on winning percentage when the ultimate goal should be to make money. Who cares if you have a winning percentage of 40% if your average price is, let's say, +165? If I could do that, I'd gladly take that over winning 60% but losing money because average price was -155.

Id rather bet on a game that I feel confident in winning despite worse odds, than bet on a game that has a small chance in winning just because it yields a better return in earning. Thats no better than playing the lottery IMO

[easyliving]

like the play ass well will tail for a unit

[tblues2005]

On baseball LT is saying that the dog that wins 40-45 percent of the time can be profitable. That makes sense here. I don't think that some here don't understand that concept.

[RavensFan2k3]

like the play ass well will tail for a unit

I didnt mean to come off as im arguing, but Ithink I like the pick aswell

[billysink]

Value wise yes but theres no value if it doesnt win

WTF. That's a rookie approach.

[RavensFan2k3]

On baseball LT is saying that the dog that wins 40-45 percent of the time can be profitable. That makes sense here. I don't think that some here don't understand that concept.

I understand that concept, but I feel like this approach only works for some one who is starting with a rather large bankroll and is okay with losing alot, someone who is practically betting the board day in and day out, and someone who is also willing to wait till the end of the season before they see their profits.

LT, does LT stand dor Long Term by any chance? Long Term Profits?

[RudyRuetigger]

I pay $5 for extra value meal.

after I eat it, I am out $5 with nothing left except a pile of shit in the toilet.

where is my value?

[LT Profits]

not trying to be an ass but whats your forum record and ytd units for mlb this year?

You missed the part where I said "If I could do that, I'd gladly take that".

[Smoke]

^^ Rudy gets it too

[Smoke]

You missed the part where I said "If I could do that, I'd gladly take that".

But for real whats your record mlb posted plays

[Louisvillekid1]

I pay $5 for extra value meal.

after I eat it, I am out $5 with nothing left except a pile of shit in the toilet.

where is my value?

If bought fries and shake separately, would of cost you another $0.18

Which can now be put towards the next Toilet Paper Purchase

However, I'm +ev and take some extra napkins home w/ me

[RavensFan2k3]

Lol you guys are hilarious

[LT Profits]

But for real whats your record mlb posted plays

It's pretty well documented that I am having a crappy year at -32 units, I update my units daily in my thread. I was -45 at the All-Star break, then went on a great run where I won 33 units in less than a month to get down to -12, and then just as quickly started giving back.

[Jikos]

I understand that concept, but I feel like this approach only works for some one who is starting with a rather large bankroll and is okay with losing alot, someone who is practically betting the board day in and day out, and someone who is also willing to wait till the end of the season before they see their profits.

Basically someone who understands gambling and wants to make money.

[RavensFan2k3]

Basically someone who understands gambling and wants to make money.

And who's already rich, trying to get richer

[jjgold]

Never bet bad teams in any sport

zero value

[Smoke]

It's pretty well documented that I am having a crappy year at -32 units, I update my units daily in my thread. I was -45 at the All-Star break, then went on a great run where I won 33 units in less than a month to get down to -12, and then just as quickly started giving back.

so where is the value then? Just sayin. Winning is value. Losing aint shit

[LT Profits]

so where is the value then? Just sayin. Winning is value. Losing aint shit

I wasn't talking about me personally (although it used to apply), I am just talking about basic value principles. As Louisvillekid suggested, just do a google on Expected Value....or better yet venture into the Think Tank and look at some of Ganchrow's old posts.

[You mad bro]

not trying to be an ass but whats your forum record and ytd units for mlb this year?

[Smoke]

I wasn't talking about me personally (although it used to apply), I am just talking about basic value principles. As Louisvillekid suggested, just do a google on Expected Value....or better yet venture into the Think Tank and look at some of Ganchrow's old posts.

the thinktank is a fukkin migraine waiting to happen. Bottom line is pick winners

[El Nino]

Smoke only sees value if Pinny chucks him a -500 Estonian Cricket League winner.

[Jikos]

So much incompetence in here

[No coincidences]

Lost in the shuffle of this thread was Smoke burying himself like I haven't seen in quite some time here.

You have tipped your hand my friend -- you might be the dumbest simpleton on the board (even more so than your twin BB). I'm at a loss. I don't even know where to begin with you, and the scary/dangerous thing is you don't see why you are being incredibly ignorant and stupid.

Congrats.

[rake922]

Liriano looks nothing like himself

[Louisvillekid1]

Lets get this one!

I need it

[rake922]

It's over

[easyliving]

thanks for the winner

[gauchojake]

So can we agree there was value?

[RudyRuetigger]

So can we agree there was value?

did you eat a value meal or not?>

if yes, you actually didnt get value

if no, you mightve had value




value in what they are arguing is pointless among different people

[RudyRuetigger]

did you eat a value meal or not?>

if yes, you actually didnt get value

if no, you mightve had value




value in what they are arguing is pointless among different people

why rudy?


oh ok. good question.

here is why.

because we dont know who will be seeing long term and who will be seeing short term.

long term value means shit if you bet big each play.

[gauchojake]

I made a deep dish pan pizza at home with home grown jalapeños, tomato sauce made from my garden, and some trader joes dough and pepperoni. There was definitely value.

But the two picks I tailed for shits from LT made money even though they went 1-1.

[jimminn]

Thanks LT I took your advise and cashed. Brewers couldn't keep losing forever or maybe they could.

[RudyRuetigger]

Guys, I just gave one scenario where there was no value in a value meal

How about this scenario

You are drinking all day and go to a bar.

You see a girl you think is hot so you have sex with here. It looks like value, right?

But then you wake up beside her, you are sober and see she is ugly.

[Louisvillekid1]

There was short term value there pal

+ev , go to her place and leave afterwards