Superbowl Props That Have Caught Your Eye

**slacker00** · 01-27-09, 06:53 PM

Originally posted by andywend

Mike, I wasn't asking your opinion on whether you like the over/under on the individual quarterback passing yard totals as that opinion has nothing to do with whether or not the wager I mentioned has value.

Once again, I'll ask the question:

What is fair value on either quarterback passing for 300 or more yards in the Super Bowl when their projected totals are 233 (Big Ben) and 256 (Warner)?

+240 seems way too high on this

Jumping to 300 from 256 & 233 is tougher than you seem to think it is. I'll try to illustrate in terms of current data.

Ben threw for 300 yards only 7 times in 73 regular season starts. In the playoffs he is 1 for 9 throwing 300. So, fair odds on him throwing for 300 in the Super Bowl is over 9 to 1.

Kurt threw for 300 yards 18 times out of 47 regular season games with the Cards. In the playoffs he's 0 for 3 throwing 300 with the Cards. So, fair odds on Kurt throwing 300 in the Super Bowl has to be at least 3 to 1, considering the defense he's going against.

So, true odds for the pair is probably about 2 1/2 to 1. Your bet is reasonable, if you feel you've got some type of handicapping edge, but I wouldn't be doing backflips or anything about it with respect to the other two individual passing props you indicate above.

As far as their individual 233 & 256 o/u, I'd take Ben with the under 233 and Kurt with the over 256. Ben has only thrown for over 233 in 21 of his 73 regular season starts and 3 of 9 in the playoffs. Kurt has thrown over 256 in 27 of his 47 games with the Cards and 2 of 3 in the playoffs. Kurt was even better with the Rams, if you want to dig into those stats, but I stuck with his Cardinal stats only because it's more relevant to his current teammates, situations & coaches.

**BigAL** · 01-27-09, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

One caught my eye - boldin's longest reception, under 21.5 yards @ -120. i dont think the steelers will allow any more yards than that. I havent looked at boldins stats tbh but it caught my eye, ill look into it further

Steelers have allowed a miniscule amount of long 20+ passing plays this year

**Smogs** · 01-27-09, 09:28 PM

Cheers bigAL, looks a tasty bet

**Portlander** · 01-27-09, 10:08 PM

The Greek has that prop at 230.5 sounds like you are getting a good deal.

**andywend** · 01-28-09, 05:18 AM

Slacker, thank you for your response and your comment about going from 256 to 300 being a tough jump.

Since I posted the question, the line on Kurt Warner has moved up to 263 1/2 and the line on Big Ben has moved to 238 1/2.

As far as Big Ben throwing for 300 or more yards, I would make quite a large wager on that if I could indeed get 9-1.

I haven't done any real research on the statistics because I don't feel its necessary. I'm relying on the passing yard projections being accurate.

Justin, if you're out there, I would sure appreciate your estimation of the fair value of either QB throwing for 300 yards or more solely based on the 238 yard (Big Ben) and 263 yard (Warner) projections.

I just placed my 3rd max wager on this getting +240, +220 and now +200 @ Greek.

Slacker, I'm doing those "cartwheels" right now but will probably be singing a different tune after the game.

**Albinorhino** · 01-28-09, 07:52 AM

How is first play from scrimmage a Run -130 or pass -110? I'm leaning towards a play on the Run.

**ryanspeer2001** · 01-28-09, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by [B

Albinorhino[/B];1456439]How is first play from scrimmage a Run -130 or pass -110? I'm leaning towards a play on the Run.

heh, my nickname from high school.

**Albinorhino** · 01-28-09, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by ryanspeer2001

heh, my nickname from high school.

It is the petname my then girlfriend but now wife gave me.

**oakas** · 01-28-09, 10:12 AM

This one caught my eye.

Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

YES +120

What do you guys think of this one.

**Albinorhino** · 01-28-09, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by oakas

This one caught my eye.

Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

YES +120

What do you guys think of this one.

Rackers has been known for missing a few fgs, Reed seems pretty solid. Blocks are not that common. Maybe a small wager.

**Art Vandeleigh** · 01-28-09, 01:05 PM

Roethlisberger over 1.5 rushing attempts -200 (Greek)
Roethlisberger over 8.5 rushing yards +115 (matchbook)

Roethlisberger rushed 7 times for 25 yards and 1 TD against Seattle in Super Bowl XL. Am I the only one who thinks he'll lay it on the line again in another Super Bowl, and go for it on his own if he has a chance and the situation is right?

**freeVICK** · 01-28-09, 03:43 PM

what do you guys think about james farrior over 8.5 total tackles

**RockBottom** · 01-28-09, 03:47 PM

Warner -.5 passing td vs Big Ben +180 5 Dimes. If they score, it is probably by pass.

**UntilTheNDofTimE** · 01-28-09, 03:48 PM

I love " will both teams make a 33 yrd or longer field goal"
Yes +155

**oakas** · 01-28-09, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by oakas

This one caught my eye.

Will there be a blocked or missed field goal?

YES +120

What do you guys think of this one.

2 more I really like.

Total Sacks OVER 5 -130

Will 3 Cardinals score (Kickers and 2 pt. conv. count) YES +125

Good luck.

**slacker00** · 01-28-09, 10:15 PM

Originally posted by andywend

Slacker, thank you for your response and your comment about going from 256 to 300 being a tough jump.

Since I posted the question, the line on Kurt Warner has moved up to 263 1/2 and the line on Big Ben has moved to 238 1/2.

As far as Big Ben throwing for 300 or more yards, I would make quite a large wager on that if I could indeed get 9-1.

I haven't done any real research on the statistics because I don't feel its necessary. I'm relying on the passing yard projections being accurate.

Justin, if you're out there, I would sure appreciate your estimation of the fair value of either QB throwing for 300 yards or more solely based on the 238 yard (Big Ben) and 263 yard (Warner) projections.

I just placed my 3rd max wager on this getting +240, +220 and now +200 @ Greek.

Slacker, I'm doing those "cartwheels" right now but will probably be singing a different tune after the game.

Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.

**alittlemoresound** · 01-29-09, 12:33 AM

prop bet i luv

arizona to punt or score 1st.....

punt -175
score -even

dam arizona aint gonna score in the superbowl before they punt at least once! steelers D is sick

**pimike** · 01-29-09, 01:22 AM

SWEED TO SCORE A TD + 700

this is a winner

**BigAL** · 01-29-09, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by slacker00

Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.

rivers thru for 300+ in the steelers last game

**JGILL50** · 01-30-09, 09:20 AM

Originally posted by UntilTheNDofTimE

I love " will both teams make a 33 yrd or longer field goal"
Yes +155

how about my man hockeytowns first made field goal over 32.5 yards thats anything from the 16yd line and out i love it

**oakas** · 01-31-09, 12:05 AM

I think I found another good one.

Will Ben Roeth throw an interception......YES -135

**betplom** · 01-31-09, 12:17 AM

Will Arizona ever have the lead?

No +191

**so im zach** · 01-31-09, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by Art Vandeleigh

Roethlisberger over 1.5 rushing attempts -200 (Greek)
Roethlisberger over 8.5 rushing yards +115 (matchbook)

Roethlisberger rushed 7 times for 25 yards and 1 TD against Seattle in Super Bowl XL. Am I the only one who thinks he'll lay it on the line again in another Super Bowl, and go for it on his own if he has a chance and the situation is right?

I'm a fan.

**so im zach** · 01-31-09, 01:43 AM

Antrel Rolle Solo + Assisted Tackles OVER 4.5 -155

**Chi_archie** · 01-31-09, 01:45 AM

Originally posted by betplom

Will Arizona ever have the lead?

No +191

I don't like that too much.... I think Zona might come out quick and more then likely they'll have the ball first since Steelers usually defer if they win and zona usually takes the ball first if they win the toss

**donjuan** · 01-31-09, 04:28 AM

I hear betting any props at +100 or better is automatically a great bet during the Super Bowl. Fire away.

**JamesBrown** · 01-31-09, 10:39 AM

Will either team have at least 3 or more unanswered scores NO +160
First score of the game will be FIELD GOAL OR SAFETY +155
Team to score last will win the game NO +160
Edgerrin James will score at least one touchdown YES +350

**gizmo2431** · 01-31-09, 11:28 AM

5011ROETHLISBERGER 1ST RUSH ATEMPT
o1½-120

**john22132** · 01-31-09, 12:49 PM

Historical matchup - Total Passing Yards Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL vs Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII Ben Roethlisberger had 123 Passing Yards in Super Bowl XL. Player must start game for wagers to have action. Singles only.
(6112) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL +96½ (+130) Sat@11:00p
Competitor

6113) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII

Seems like an easy one??

**freeVICK** · 01-31-09, 04:55 PM

will either team convert a 4th down -200?

**slacker00** · 01-31-09, 07:06 PM

Originally posted by slacker00

Hey andywend, I was looking at the defensive stats for both teams. Pittsburgh has only allowed one 300 yard passer in 2 years (35 games), that was Tom Brady in his record breaking year last year. Arizona isn't bad either only allowing 3 passers over 300 yards in 19 games this year.

Disregard these stats. I was taking raw passing numbers which subtracted sack yardage from passing yardage totals. I didn't realize that at the time. I'd redo my study, but I'm just too damn lazy at this moment.

**DwightShrute** · 01-31-09, 07:15 PM

steelers -17.5 +350

**slacker00** · 01-31-09, 07:25 PM

Originally posted by john22132

Historical matchup - Total Passing Yards Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL vs Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII Ben Roethlisberger had 123 Passing Yards in Super Bowl XL. Player must start game for wagers to have action. Singles only.
(6112) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XL +96½ (+130) Sat@11:00p
Competitor

6113) Ben Roethlisberger Super Bowl XLIII

Seems like an easy one??

Why the convoluted phrasing? It's the same as:
Ben under 219 1/2 +130

That's about the going rate right now.

I like this one:
Roethlisberger vs Warner - most gross passing yrds
902 Kurt Warner -24½ passing yrds -120

**jh0720** · 01-31-09, 09:39 PM

BetOnline has:
total net passing yards:
under 670.5 @ -165

isn't this a very good pick or am i missing something?

**Smogs** · 01-31-09, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by jh0720

BetOnline has:
total net passing yards:
under 670.5 @ -165

isn't this a very good pick or am i missing something?

Isnt it total yards?

My props are boldin's longest reception - under 21.5 yds
I also like arizona rushing yds under 80 - i think they will test the passing out after the edge gets stopped early.

Thats it so far, found it really hard but maybe warner under 260 yards, if he gets picked early or pressured we'll see a lot of 3 and outs

My thinking is a pitts win and for that to happen it will have to be a low scoring game, a shootout = ari win