I'm Going to Make You 4X Your Money in 2 Months Betting +EV Lines....

[infamousbacardi]

Hey guys,

This isn't a thread that will be filled with rocket science and math equations. The problem most gamblers have is that they don't bet enough +EV lines. Bottom line is that if you've been losing or need a little bit of money come July 1st, then hop on board and enjoy the ride.

Here's how this is going to go down:

1) I will make 7 plays a day.
2) Over 70% of my bets will be +EV lines.
3) I'm going to go from $2,000 to $6,000 in 2 months time.
4) Every play will be a flat bet $100.
5) There will be no chasing, no hedging, nothing but flat bets.
6) All odds posted will be decimal odds.

I realize most people here probably don't have $2,000 in an account, so start with $200, or $20 and get up to $600 or $60.

If you want to come in here and run your mouth, go for it, but I'm literally just posting plays and up-to-date records and bank roll amounts...not measuring my privates with interweb tough guys.

Enjoy.

[infamousbacardi]

I know today's games have started already, but 2 of them have yet to start:

MLB:

Reds -1.5 (2.15) $100 to win $115
Red Sox -1.5 (2.30) $100 to win $130
Diamondbacks/Yankees O8.5 (1.83) $120 to win $100

NHL:

Lightning/Canadiens O5.5 (1.87) $115 to win $100
Blues -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185
Sharks -1.5 (3.05) $100 to win $205
Kings -1.5 (2.75) $100 to win $175

[infamousbacardi]

Record: 3-4
Bankroll: +$15

April 19th Plays -

MLB:

Red Sox -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155
White Sox -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120
Nationals -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Rockies -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155
Giants -1.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100

NHL:

Blackhawks -1.5 (2.05) $100 to win $105
Ducks -1.5 (2.90) $100 to win $190

[JayLA]

How are 70% of your plays +EV?

[infamousbacardi]

How are 70% of your plays +EV?

As I'm sure you know, expected value is all about estimating which bets are profitable and which bets are not.

Expected value = wager + (expected win - expected loss)

My personal picks (in particular in this thread) are games in which I can pick less than 50% and still come out with a profit.

My picks last night are the perfect example of this.

I'll even use a game tonight as an illustration of what I mean:

Blackhawks v Predators. In my opinion, if the Blackhawks play the Predators in Chicago 100 times, they will win by 2 goals at least 50 of those times....at 2.05 odds, to me, the long-run average of the results will be in my favor and thus eliminate the house edge of the bet.

In sports betting, there aren't exact calculations as to how many times, in the future, team X will beat team Y by 2 goals or by 2 runs...but if you find yourself betting plays you think are 50% likely to happen and you are getting odds at over 2.00 (+100), then you should make money.

Again, this is all opinion based...the general premise of the thread is that, I can quadruple your bank roll by flat betting games that are usually over 2.00 odds but that I think are likely to happen at least 50% of the time...

[Smoke]

Good luck

[JayLA]

As I'm sure you know, expected value is all about estimating which bets are profitable and which bets are not.

Expected value = wager + (expected win - expected loss)

My personal picks (in particular in this thread) are games in which I can pick less than 50% and still come out with a profit.

My picks last night are the perfect example of this.

I'll even use a game tonight as an illustration of what I mean:

Blackhawks v Predators. In my opinion, if the Blackhawks play the Predators in Chicago 100 times, they will win by 2 goals at least 50 of those times....at 2.05 odds, to me, the long-run average of the results will be in my favor and thus eliminate the house edge of the bet.

In sports betting, there aren't exact calculations as to how many times, in the future, team X will beat team Y by 2 goals or by 2 runs...but if you find yourself betting plays you think are 50% likely to happen and you are getting odds at over 2.00 (+100), then you should make money.

Again, this is all opinion based...the general premise of the thread is that, I can quadruple your bank roll by flat betting games that are usually over 2.00 odds but that I think are likely to happen at least 50% of the time...

Thanks for the explanation. The term EV used in sports betting fascinates me because of the amount of variance involved.

I'm already on some of your plays today, good luck!

[infamousbacardi]

Thanks for the explanation. The term EV used in sports betting fascinates me because of the amount of variance involved.

good luck!

No you are exactly correct. It's kind of silly to say that sports betting picks in general could ever be +EV because you are spot on, the variance is just too high (even though I said it, more to make a point than being correct in the "math"). They are humans and teams of 20+ people, not playing cards or dice that have set odds and probabilities you can actually extrapolate.

[Aussiefalconfan]

Mets beat the nats tonight

[tatddy]

Good luck.

[infamousbacardi]

Mets beat the nats tonight

They may, but this is a big spot for Harvey. Though he has faired well in limited action vs. Bryce Harper also....but generally, I'll take my chances with Strasburg and the better team overall to win by 2 or more at some great odds 2.45 (+145).

[infamousbacardi]

Thanks everyone else who has checked in and said good luck. This thread is going to be very fun over the next 2 months.

[infamousbacardi]

Record: 3-4
Bankroll: +$15

April 19th Plays -

MLB:

Red Sox -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155
White Sox -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120
Nationals -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Rockies -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155
Giants -1.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100

NHL:

Blackhawks -1.5 (2.05) $100 to win $105
Ducks -1.5 (2.90) $100 to win $190

Both Sox games are PPD today...going to add instead:

MLB

Brewers -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185

NHL

Rangers -1.5 (3.35) $100 to win $235

[leetreaper]

the guy regg'ed in '08, still havnt learned nothin'

[boeing power]

How are you 3-4 when you posted the Red Sox play after the game was over?

You are 1-4.

Be honest or gtfo.

[infamousbacardi]

the guy regg'ed in '08, still havnt learned nothin'

Nice insightful post. Keep up the great work here at SBR.

[TheMetsSuck]

under seems like the safer play if you think strasburg cruises. Harvey is no slouch. 3-2 game at most either way. I expect closer to 2-1 though. good luck

[infamousbacardi]

How are you 3-4 when you posted the Red Sox play after the game was over?

You are 1-4.

Be honest or gtfo.

No games were over when I posted. If I was trying to skew the records I'd have just posted some 6-1 or 5-2 garbage.

I didn't post my plays yesterday for tailing purposes anyway except for the 2 hockey games, which went 1-1 and made money....

Now that you mention it, 1-1 and +$105 does sound a little better....perhaps I should have gone w/ that and tried to look better than the actual record....

[infamousbacardi]

under seems like the safer play if you think strasburg cruises. Harvey is no slouch. 3-2 game at most either way. I expect closer to 2-1 though. good luck

Under may be "safer" play, but that isn't the point of the thread TMS....looking for solid plays with good odds.

[boeing power]

1-4 -300 official record.

this thread won't see may.

[infamousbacardi]

1-4 -300 official record.

this thread won't see may.

As I said above, if you want to count my record as games ONLY that were posted before the start of game, record is 1-1 and +$105.

Why would I lie about my record and make it worse?

YOU can keep my record starting there if you'd like....but I'll go w/ the honest 3-4 and +$15 to start.

[BigDeem5]

Good luck

[JMobile]

Is this guy for reals?

[Gee]

How is going from a 2000 to 6000 roll 4 times your money?

[infamousbacardi]

How is going from a 2000 to 6000 roll 4 times your money?

This is a good point Gee. I'll settle for 3x!

[DrStale]

Claims 70% of plays are +EV.
Doesn't know what 2,000 x 4 is.

This is gonna go real well.

[thewhiteguy]

Claims 70% of plays are +EV.
Doesn't know what 2,000 x 4 is.

This is gonna go real well.

[infamousbacardi]

I would just love is this delightful community of assholes just comes back when the record is 3x the bank roll and keeps running their collective hair lipped mouths.

[raydog]

4k in 2 months betting $100 a bet ... you are going to need a fukking miracle, kid... goodluck, and its Okay if you stop posting plays in a few weeks when all hope is lost...it happens 56879758679 times a year here

[tto827]

Did you confuse +EV for + money odds?

Cause forgive me, but if you make a bet that you don't think is +EV you are pretty dense.

Are you just trying to throw away money 30% of the time.

[infamousbacardi]

When I'm up in a week or two and everyone has quit running their mouth and wants to tail, that's when I'll see it fit to stop.

You guys are a funny bunch as a whole. No bigger group of assholes on the web I'm sure of it, but man it's pretty funny stuff.

Lakerboy and his "if this doesn't happen I'm going to leave" threads are going to have nothing on what is about to happen here.

[leetreaper]

Nice insightful post. Keep up the great work here at SBR.

nocommentaro

[JayLA]

Did you confuse +EV for + money odds?

Cause forgive me, but if you make a bet that you don't think is +EV you are pretty dense.

Are you just trying to throw away money 30% of the time.

Yea, I read him as thinkin +odds=+EV

[infamousbacardi]

Record: 3-4
Bankroll: +$15

April 19th Plays -

MLB:

Brewers -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185
Nationals -1.5 (2.45) $100 to win $145
Rockies -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155
Giants -1.5 (1.91) $110 to win $100

NHL:

Blackhawks -1.5 (2.05) $100 to win $105
Ducks -1.5 (2.90) $100 to win $190
Rangers -1.5 (3.35) $100 to win $235

Record: 5-9
Bankroll: -$105

Lost $120 last night. Pretty tough run of results as only 2 of the 7 picks actual lost their games. Had 3 teams win by only 1 instead of 2. Moving on to tonight:

MLB:

Rangers -1.5 (2.10) $100 to win $110
Brewers -1.5 (2.70) $100 to win $170
Nationals -1.5 (2.05) $100 to win $105
Phillies -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Braves -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120


NHL:

Blackhawks -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Devils -1.5 (2.70) $100 to win $170

[infamousbacardi]

Record: 5-9
Bankroll: -$105

Lost $120 last night. Pretty tough run of results as only 2 of the 7 picks actual lost their games. Had 3 teams win by only 1 instead of 2. Moving on to tonight:

MLB:

Rangers -1.5 (2.10) $100 to win $110
Brewers -1.5 (2.70) $100 to win $170
Nationals -1.5 (2.05) $100 to win $105
Phillies -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Braves -1.5 (2.20) $100 to win $120


NHL:

Blackhawks -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Devils -1.5 (2.70) $100 to win $170

3-4 yesterday for a profit of $50.

Thread totals are now:

Record: 8-13
Bankroll: -$55

April 21st Plays:

MLB:

Red Sox - 1.5 *BOTH GAMES OF DOUBLEHEADER* (2.40 & 2.50) $100 to win $140 GM1 and $100 to win $150 GM2
Brewers -1.5 (2.60) $100 to win $160
Giants -1.5 (2.55) $100 to win $155

NHL:

Blues -1.5 (2.95) $100 to win $195
Lightning -1.5 (2.85) $100 to win $185
Wild -1.5 (2.40) $100 to win $140