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Show bets in horse racing profitable?
I was curious if anybody had any advice on whether show bets are profitable. I caught myself trying it out today and it seems if you bet a high volume of races to show per day and are hitting a very small ROI of 20 percent, it could be very profitable. I mean it would take the discipline of a Buddhist monk to bet to show all the time. But is it profitable in the long run?
you would have to be hitting at a very high % clip for it to work, depending on the system you would use (constantly only betting chalk horses to show, only betting longshots, mixing, etc). if you only bet chalk horses to show, obv you know that it only takes 1 or 2 to miss the board and basically theres goes your bankroll.
It would be a mix for the best results. I wouldn't be betting a large percent of my roll at a time. I went 7 for 11 in a night cap at Hollywood and Golden Gate. Betting the same amount each time. Showed about and 18 percent ROI. Out of the 4 misses the worst finish was 5th.
I think most trying this will end up as one of these --->
that is i how i make money, but only on an exchange
pari mutual wagering is a scam
its not a scam but the takeout on certain bets at certain tracks is obscene. throw in the mix if you're betting at an otb and then you have an additional 1.25 - 2.75 % off-track and non-local takeout/tax
Show wagering can be very profitable, if you are using a rebate shop. If you hit your race, you are guaranteed a minimum of 5%, and if you are getting a 5% rebate, that makes it 10% or more......
Something also to consider with show betting is that the effect of breakage will have a bigger impact on you.
It's one thing to round down a win payoff from $13.58 to $13.40, for example. That 18 cents doesn't represent a big chunk of your profit.
However, consider a show payoff getting rounded down from $2.58 to $2.40. In this case, the 18 cents that is taken away for breakage absolutely destroys your profit. That 18 cents doesn't sound like a lot, but it's like 30% of your profits being stolen from you!
So for reasons like this, I think rebates are a must if you're going to focus entirely on show wagering.
Originally Posted by 13th Inning
how can there be a show payoff of $13.58 or $2.58
just curious. is it a european/aussie thing?
EDIT** u must be talking about the actual payoff before showing up on the tote and getting paid out. i think i get it now.
13th inning's post regarding breakage makes it just about IMPOSSIBLE to beat the races by betting to show.
For the most part, longshots are bet too heavily to show and will definitely return a massive negative ROI.
Favorites (excluding odds-on favorites) are UNDERBET but the 20c breakage is an absolute killer.
Initially, the theory of breakage was that racing patrons didn't want to bother dealing with pennies. Tracks that use 20c breakage all have a single exception and that is they will go down and use 10c breakage when it means paying off $2.10 instead of $2.20
With tracks raising takeouts along with the vast majority of winners being over-bet by their connections and finally the rip-off breakage, beating the races is just about impossible even with quality inside information. Without that information, forget about it and use horseracing strictly as a form of entertainment.
WTF had best post in this thread although betfair mainly deals win win and place but they place markets do not have a lot of volume
10 cents on the dollar won't win you a lot of money. Look for better paying horses 4-1
and higher with a good jockey. You will get better show money and they hit at a good rate.
If you win the 1st bet, quit. If you lose, chase until you show a profit then quit. You can't
figure out the odds for a show bet so, martingale your lost bets.
I tier the favorite with a good jockey at 0 MTP. $5w, $7p, $12 show. Works for me.
To pick a good jockey, you will have to do some home work.
Go to the previous days races at the tracks you frequent and look for
how many times the jockeys w-p-s. You will notice the good jockeys
on bad horses will show more often than not.
GL
Last edited by rkelly110; 06-13-11 at 08:42 AM.
The original question here is are show bets profitable? The simple answer is no. Not much of anything at the track is profitable. Pick 3 maybe is the best bet.
Horse racing bets in general are not profitable.
Yes if you have great discipline and money management and willing to sit out many races and do lots of research it van be very profitable. It involves not only a lot of handicapping but also a tote board that shows you the actual show pool breakdown and your ability to sit out of races where your horse is a top 3 show betting favorite. Not top three win favorite. The goal is to identify a horse you think will finish in the top three... If that horse is a top three show favorite as close to post time as you can get skip and do not look back. You need to maximize your $5.00 and above show's long term and skip the $2.10 races.
Clueless TVG & other racing hosts call heavy show bettors "bridgejumpers"
There are probably a handful of very successful SHOW bettors in the nation specializing in what they do.Normal for them to wager $10,000 or more to show when they have done their research properly.The average Joe probably doesn't have the knowledge,discipline or bankroll to pull it off
Some pretty good ideas here with the bottom line being it is extremely difficult to grind out profits with show wagering, but it's just as difficult to do so with win wagering. As was pointed out, betting longshots to show is for the brain dead. If a 30-1 shot shows along with an even money favorite, the pool won't pay you anywhere near the fair odds. Look for chalk- heavy win chalk- that is underbet in the show pool. Consider an even money favorite that has over half of the money in the win pool bet on it, yet he may only be a third of the show pool. That's the kind of thinking it takes, and these types of plays are only for grinders....another problem is that it's almost impossible to judge the impact of the late money coming in. So much doesn't show up on the tote until they leave the gate that the task is even more difficult.
To play wagers of this size, you would have to be in New York or Southern Cali, other than major weekend stakes days. A show bet of $10,000 will torpedo the odds at most tracks.
yep, and even then the bridge-jumpers get burned once in a while
I am a bridge jumper. I just won 46 in a row with lots from Mountaineer (10%). Then I just lost 3 of 4. All my profit gone. It is tough.
Aggie are you the guy that created that $186 show payout last night?
Uhhh, $169 show price, sorry. This was in the 2nd race at Mnr.
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