So much for Steam being +EV

[sweep]

Got buried tonight betting steam.....

3.5 point fav loses outright by 12, 9.5 point fav loses outright by 2....

9.5 point dog loses by 10, 19pt dog loses by 37()

17pt fav wins by 10...........


Fukkin disgrace. Worst part about it is I still hear the "BEEP" "BEEP" from the odds tracker in my head.


Haters get in here and bury me, I deserve it. Fukkin rediculous

[daimoshokage]

[sweep]

Stop dragging my nutz around the forum Homosausage, its getting annoying pal

[Gee]

Meh.

You'll still win long term if you get the best of it.

Who cares if you went 0-5 on one day? Everyone, look at me?

[sweep]

Meh.

You'll still win long term if you get the best of it.

Who cares if you went 0-5 on one day? Everyone, look at me?

Whats wrong with venting a little cuz? Not like Im coming in here bragging that I went 5-0 post game like everyone else does. Just blowing of some stress. Yeah its a small sample but throwing up a bagel on the night is ugly.




























.............and go fukk yourself also

[daimoshokage]

This idiot sweep lost 20 bucks on all his plays.. and he is crying and shit like he lost a grand.. sweep the old stupid fukker at it's finest!!!

[raydog]

sweeper, if you are going to nit pick a few games that barely move (especially bigger lines) you are going to bury yourself... there is more to betting than just waiting on a Pinny line to move and then running to find the best price somewhere else...you wont win this way

[JayLA]

I dunno sweep, I've been following line movement (cause i couldn't handicapp a tip off in hoops) and there are some clear winners. Last night I made a little profit thanks to Layola Maryland and New Mexico St...about 2 pt movement on each. I'm sure im not telling you anything new but I pick selections that have RAPID movement.....gradual movement could just mean one side is getting bet heavier...but when i see rapid movement, I look into it.

just my .02

[Inspirited]

[ ] sample size is good enough to base conclusions on

[statnerds]

and what do you think the max winning % is for these bettors causing the line movements? 57%? 58% tops?

[Donkeys2012]

Got buried tonight betting steam.....

3.5 point fav loses outright by 12, 9.5 point fav loses outright by 2....

9.5 point dog loses by 10, 19pt dog loses by 37()

17pt fav wins by 10...........


Fukkin disgrace. Worst part about it is I still hear the "BEEP" "BEEP" from the odds tracker in my head.


Haters get in here and bury me, I deserve it. Fukkin rediculous

Heres an equation for you sweep...


Fade BradleySnyder + Fade Brock Landers + Fade Tranny Haines + Fade Little Deemer = HUGE Profits

Dont worry about betting steam just bet against the resident douchebags.

[Sawyer]

Look over long term.

[frongi]

gotta be careful with steam. sometimes the opening line is real sharp and then the public bets it off of an optimal position and there is value going the other way. i personally don't know how to tell which is which, but i know i have seen lines open at -3 get bet to -5.5 and then the home team wins by 2.

[raydog]

I dunno sweep, I've been following line movement (cause i couldn't handicapp a tip off in hoops) and there are some clear winners. Last night I made a little profit thanks to Layola Maryland and New Mexico St...about 2 pt movement on each. I'm sure im not telling you anything new but I pick selections that have RAPID movement.....gradual movement could just mean one side is getting bet heavier...but when i see rapid movement, I look into it.

just my .02

lolz ... you realize that if you were trying to beat/chase steam on this play, you wouldnt have bet new mex st. ...

[JayLA]

lolz ... you realize that if you were trying to beat/chase steam on this play, you wouldnt have bet new mex st. ...

What? If Im recalling correctly, New Mex St's line moved 2 points...and I bet it....is that not 'chasing steam?'

Thanks for the help, I love learning

[gregm]

Are you betting these games and following the market at books slow to move the line and at the number before it was steamed? There are different types of steam plays, but generally its finding a line that has moved in a pretty significant fashion at lot of books but finding a book that has been slow to move the line and getting the line at somewhere that could be considered true market value . Going after the side with the money on it at the slow moving book is usually what people mean by chasing steam. If you bet the wager after the line moves at the books that moved the line, statistically you are not going to make money in the long run. Thats why so many books dont care about people "chasing steam" after the line has moved if they are on top of things, sports books will limit you when you are hitting stale lines.

Look up RAS sports for the best example if you want historical stats and closing line values from someone who actually moves lines. You would do better to learn about reverse line movement and why a number may move, even if the the public is on it, in the opposite direction.

[Miz]

Chasing line movements will put you in a psych ward. Steam chasing can work, but only if you find a place that moves late. The key to steam chasing, as boring as it is, is to bet into the line BEFORE it moves. You find a book with delayed moves and hit them quickly before they get a chance to move it.

Much better to develop a methodology/model, test it, bet it. If the line movements usually agree, then you're on the right track. If you bet early and always get the worst of it, you're likely doing it poorly.

[raydog]

What? If Im recalling correctly, New Mex St's line moved 2 points...and I bet it....is that not 'chasing steam?'

Thanks for the help, I love learning

if you want to include the word "steam" in this play...you would have bet sjst +10 somewhere before it steamed down to +8.5 (as sjst is the side that got "steamed")... you bet new mex st. After the line move... but if you had planned on betting them all day, you got the best number and its hard to argue with that since that is the overall goal ..

[milwaukee mike]

if you want to include the word "steam" in this play...you would have bet sjst +10 somewhere before it steamed down to +8.5... you bet new mex st. After the line move... but if you had planned on betting them all day, you got the best number and its hard to argue with that since that is the overall goal ..

is getting the best number the overall goal?

or is it winning money?

or is it having as much fun as we can before we die, while leaving our friends and loved ones better off than they would be without us in their lives?

[raydog]

is getting the best number the overall goal?

or is it winning money?

or is it having as much fun as we can before we die, while leaving our friends and loved ones better off than they would be without us in their lives?

sorry mike..yes, the overall goal is for us to make just enough money for us to fukk around our entire lives(coke/whores/gamble/etc) and leave our family nothing but a bunch of debt...

[Vinnie Paz]

So wait,

This guys betting the teams that get steamed AFTER the lines already moved? The whole point is catching it somewhere before it adjusts.

[milwaukee mike]

sorry mike..yes, the overall goal is for us to make just enough money for us to fukk around our entire lives(coke/whores/gamble/etc) and leave our family nothing but a bunch of debt...

wow i think you misread my post. for me having fun is WINNING money, not pissing it away on drugs and whores, or having debt. if i had even $1 of debt there is no way i would be gambling serious money.

[raydog]

haha, i guess i did misread a bit (you knew i was joking though)... of course, the goal is to make money... you aint doing it day in and day out, long term, without getting the best numbers, imo... so they go hand in hand, you could say...