Break down Arizona vs California

Fanatik · 02-10-13, 09:44 AM

Cal is a tough dog to give 13.5 to... However, and there is always the however. They are 1-5 ATS as away dogs and 1-6 ATS as dogs total on the year and 4-6 ATS in there last ten games overall going 2-5 as dogs. It is vital to note that the most points they received in any of these 10 games was 7 to UCLA who beat them by 14 on Jan 3 (on the road I might add). Since then as dogs both at home and on the road; 1/5 @usc +1 dog won 72-64, 1/19 @stan +6 dog lost 59-69, 1/24 @ Utah +6 dog won 62-57, 1/27 @Colo +6 dog lost 71-81, and on 2/7 @Asu +3.5 dog lost 62-66 and the line moved as high a 4.5 which they would have covered if you got that number. So, they covered against a team in this same state 3 days ago only getting 4.5 at its higest, 4 at close for a push, or if you took the opening line of 3.5 they missed covering by a .5 point. Cal avgs 12.9 T/O per game while Az avgs 13.5, off/rebs per game Cal avgs 37.1 while Az avgs 37.7, FT% which may be a key factor Cal .7% AZ .8%, and 3pt % Cal avgs .313 and Az avgs .358 which also may bite a Cal backer. In common opponents over the last 10 games; ASU cal away L62-66 AZ away won 71-54, ORE Cal home won 58-54 AZ away lost 66-70, ORST Cal home won 71-68 AZ away won 80-70, Colo Cal away lost 71-81 AZ home won 92-83, UTAH Cal away won 62-57 AZ home won 60-57, WSU Cal home won 67-54 AZ away wom 79-65, and WASH cal home lost 47-62 AZ away won 57-53. In all of those game except 1 AZ scored more than Cal did and in 4 of those 7 Cal allowed Less than AZ with one game where they both allowed the same. Based on this it would seem 13.5 is to much, but then again it also feels like Vegas is trying to make it seem that way as well. There is a 64.3% concensus on AZ and Vegas has moved the opening line of 14 to 13.5 as a result. This may be a pretty sharp line and AZ could blow em out. But with AZ going 1-5 ATS as double digit favorites in the last 10 games with 4 of those games being on their home court and Cal biggest ATS dog loss only being 7pts in the last 10 games, I would prob side with the public and back Cal in this spot and buy the hook to 14. But, I have been so cold as of late this may be a bad play too...

Fanatik · 02-10-13, 10:02 AM

Anyone else have thoughts?

Big Bear · 02-10-13, 10:04 AM

wow nice write up ... i like that arizona is at home here but i feel like everybody will on zona tonight

numismatist · 02-10-13, 10:05 AM

Arizona tends to play down to the level of their opponents.

OhMyEli · 02-10-13, 10:08 AM

Great analysis. I'll look into it but cal shit the bed for me as dogs this year. If they've learned to show up they may be worth it at half but I've been burned too many times with them shooting 20% in the 1h with no scorers to get back in it

Fanatik · 02-10-13, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by Big Bear

wow nice write up ... i like that arizona is at home here but i feel like everybody will on zona tonight

The consensus right now is 64.3% on Cal... Seems as if the public is licking it's chops on cal

Fanatik · 02-10-13, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by OhMyEli

Great analysis. I'll look into it but cal shit the bed for me as dogs this year. If they've learned to show up they may be worth it at half but I've been burned too many times with them shooting 20% in the 1h with no scorers to get back in it

Yes but the bigges line they have been is 7 which they did lose by 14 there... but we havent seen them a double digit dog

Fanatik · 02-10-13, 10:12 AM

Maybe that will be the case today numis, although I havent commited to backing Cal just yet.

numismatist · 02-10-13, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Fanatik

Maybe that will be the case today numis, although I havent commited to backing Cal just yet.

To me this game and the line have a big flashing light saying "stay away". Obviously the books want the public to take Cal and thats exactly what they are doing. People are probably excited because of Cal 2nd half against Arizona State. Believe me when I tell you that the Bears are capable of losing this one by 20