When you analyze the math, it's really a lousy bet.
First off, they have to make the playoffs. Winning the division is highly doubtful, since even if they beat Baltimore in the last week, they'd lose on division record tiebreaker, so with the exception of the less than 1% chance of winning the division, they would have to make it as a wild card. With Indy at 8-4, games with Tenn. and KC, and a home finale against Houston which will probably have Houston already clinched the #1 seed, they probably wont pass Indy. That leaves Pittsburgh and Cincy to battle for the #6 seed (sans the 1% chance of Buff, Jets, or Miami getting it). Pittsburgh gets Cincy at home, so you're probably at least +150 to +200 in that game, which you MUST win. Then you may still have to beat Baltimore in the last week, and Baltimore might need a win for the #2 seed and added rest. So even if you're a pick 'em there, i put at best, your chances of getting into the playoffs at 25%.
Now, if you happen to get the #6 seed , you have to win on the road at New England, Denver, or Baltimore, and you're no better than 30% chance on market price in any of those games, (probably more like 25%). If you win that game, you have to win on the road at Houston, where you'd be between +250 and +350, so let's give them a 25% chance there. Then, you'd have to win on the road in the AFC title game, where you'll be an underdog again, probably no lower than +200 (lets say 30%).
So even if we boost our expected chances of each step, let's multiply it.
30 % chance of making playoffs (generous, more like 25%)
30% chance of winning first wild card playoff game on road (generous again, especially vs NE)
25% chance of winning at Houston
33% chance of winning on road in AFC championship game.
.30 x .25 x .30 x .33 = .0074 chance ( 0.74% = 134-1)
If you waited until they made the playoffs as the #6 seed, you can parlay them as sizeable ML underdogs and get a better price than 35-1, and you wont waste any money if they don't make the playoffs. There's no way they would be road favorites against any playoff opponents, and you KNOW they're going to be +300 against Houston, so why bet them now?
Of course, you would have the microscopic chance of them winning the division, but bottom line, the price isn't right.
But thats not to say not to bet it, just dont think its a bargain price, because in reality, the price is terrible.
I hate to be negative, because I love long shot futures, and have hit some nice ones (even longer than 35-1) in the last 10 years. But, I just don't think the price is good enough for what you need to do to win it.
Having said all that, I've always liked the Bengals, even in the Isaac Curtis and Lemar Parrish days, and I hate Pittsburgh, so I hope you make it and do well. Good Luck.
First off, they have to make the playoffs. Winning the division is highly doubtful, since even if they beat Baltimore in the last week, they'd lose on division record tiebreaker, so with the exception of the less than 1% chance of winning the division, they would have to make it as a wild card. With Indy at 8-4, games with Tenn. and KC, and a home finale against Houston which will probably have Houston already clinched the #1 seed, they probably wont pass Indy. That leaves Pittsburgh and Cincy to battle for the #6 seed (sans the 1% chance of Buff, Jets, or Miami getting it). Pittsburgh gets Cincy at home, so you're probably at least +150 to +200 in that game, which you MUST win. Then you may still have to beat Baltimore in the last week, and Baltimore might need a win for the #2 seed and added rest. So even if you're a pick 'em there, i put at best, your chances of getting into the playoffs at 25%.
Now, if you happen to get the #6 seed , you have to win on the road at New England, Denver, or Baltimore, and you're no better than 30% chance on market price in any of those games, (probably more like 25%). If you win that game, you have to win on the road at Houston, where you'd be between +250 and +350, so let's give them a 25% chance there. Then, you'd have to win on the road in the AFC title game, where you'll be an underdog again, probably no lower than +200 (lets say 30%).
So even if we boost our expected chances of each step, let's multiply it.
30 % chance of making playoffs (generous, more like 25%)
30% chance of winning first wild card playoff game on road (generous again, especially vs NE)
25% chance of winning at Houston
33% chance of winning on road in AFC championship game.
.30 x .25 x .30 x .33 = .0074 chance ( 0.74% = 134-1)
If you waited until they made the playoffs as the #6 seed, you can parlay them as sizeable ML underdogs and get a better price than 35-1, and you wont waste any money if they don't make the playoffs. There's no way they would be road favorites against any playoff opponents, and you KNOW they're going to be +300 against Houston, so why bet them now?
Of course, you would have the microscopic chance of them winning the division, but bottom line, the price isn't right.
But thats not to say not to bet it, just dont think its a bargain price, because in reality, the price is terrible.
I hate to be negative, because I love long shot futures, and have hit some nice ones (even longer than 35-1) in the last 10 years. But, I just don't think the price is good enough for what you need to do to win it.
Having said all that, I've always liked the Bengals, even in the Isaac Curtis and Lemar Parrish days, and I hate Pittsburgh, so I hope you make it and do well. Good Luck.
