You hear it every week

[jaybo72]

Squares just killed everybody yesterday, crazy

[tokio]

I'm only up 10% of my BR from yesterday. Guess its better than being down 10%

[kbm222]

What does all this tell you about tonights line?

Philly +3 all day!!

[tto827]

What does all this tell you about tonights line?

Philly +3 all day!!

Care to explain how you got Philly +3 based on the rest of this weeks games?

[kbm222]

In Lamens terms.....Betting public loves to bet favorites. Books got raped all weekend with an extremely high % of favorites covering. The books get back tonight some of their millions they lost yesterday, i.e Philly covers.

[hurricane1091]

If Boise State didn't muck it up, I go +525 this weekend.

[tto827]

In Lamens terms.....Betting public loves to bet favorites. Books got raped all weekend with an extremely high % of favorites covering. The books get back tonight some of their millions they lost yesterday, i.e Philly covers.

Ok, I get that, but could you please explain how the outcome of games on Sundays effects the way that the players on Philly and NO will perform tonight?

[Frisco]

had my best weekend this year. won $635 between saturday and sunday. thats a decent amount to me.

Congrats man. And to the person who said "they have nobody to blame but themselves for the lines they put out", I couldn't agree more. The Oregon line should have been at least -10 so it would be daring people to take USC. The Bama line was perfect but the over/under was a joke (even though the over almost hit). The lines they are putting out make me believe that they aren't really losing too much $$.

[Frisco]

The only dog i played was the Panthers on the ML and think that was one of the easier plays of the day. Panthers probably should have been the fave or at least a pk em game.

[kbm222]

It doesn't have anything to do with how anyone plays tonight. This line opened at -3.5 with 60% of the $$ on Saints and has dropped to -2.5 in many books. Fishy if you ask me. It by no means says Philly will cover, but if I had to bet it, I would bet Philly. Just my honest opinion. Trust me, I have been wrong many times.

[PAULYPOKER]

According to the new beta SBR consensus the books are all but bankrupt...............
the book(Probably 5dimes) SBR uses for this lost
Den/Cin $17k
Ari/GB $32.5k
Mia/Ind $67k
Det/Jac $19.5k
Chi/Ten $73k
Car/Was $28k
Tam/Oak $190k
Min/Sea $40k
total losses $467k

games they made profit on

Bal/Clev $34k
Buf/Hou $32.5k
Pit/NYG $48k
Dal/ATL $166K

total profit $280.5k

Net total -186.5k

[Grits n' Gravy]

The books in Vegas got destroyed this weekend. The figures I saw will have some execs ripping book directors a new one. When your parlay and teaser cards are even hitting, you are in trouble.

[No coincidences]

The books in Vegas got destroyed this weekend. The figures I saw will have some execs ripping book directors a new one. When your parlay and teaser cards are even hitting, you are in trouble.

Again, though, what are you going to do: make Jacksonville +20 at home against Detroit? Tennessee +30 at home vs. the Bears? Cleveland +10 at home against a team they've already nearly beaten on the road? Cincy +10 at home against a team they are basically equal to on paper?

The only two lines that could've been better were Buffalo +13 and the Buccaneers should've been favored, but they would've covered anyway. Colts probably should've been -3 with a push instead of +2.5. Not sure how this was the books' fault overall, though.

[k13]

Take the games off the board if they are getting hit too hard like the stock market does. lol

[wantitall4moi]

Buffalo did open -12 but for some reason the line move would have suggested everyone was betting Buffalo. Same with Dallas. But thats where books play the 'respected' money versus public angle, they get a few 'respected' guys betting Buffalo and Dallas and they over compensate the lines. Those lines did nothing but fall all week, so if they arent moving the line basedo n action but on some guy(s) opinions then they deserve what they get.

Thats why theye making less money now than they used to, they have bought into the hype that a few guys are making the market. Their handle was down 20% last year in football, that a huge drop, but mostly because theyre moving lines on the bet of one guy they think knows more than they do.

Whie it may have worked or sort of worked in the past (I dont think it ever worked personally) when you start losing profits like they lost last year, and have a day like they had yesterday they might need to re-evaluate.

Like I said it is surprising it hasnt happened more, with the air moves and every one cloning every one else these guys can never balance their action. Theyre scared shitless of getting middled to post a line that makes sense. If they posted a responsible line in the first place, even if it were a point off some other book who cares, at least they have closed most middle opportunities. Most of them dont post openers anyway, they give it 12-15 hours before they post up their numbers, but this week it wasnt long enough, at least in hind sight. But lines move every week, this week they just happened to hit.

[tto827]

It doesn't have anything to do with how anyone plays tonight. This line opened at -3.5 with 60% of the $$ on Saints and has dropped to -2.5 in many books. Fishy if you ask me. It by no means says Philly will cover, but if I had to bet it, I would bet Philly. Just my honest opinion. Trust me, I have been wrong many times.

Ok, you look at it logically and take the line movement as a component. I thought you were on of those, "look at what the line did, pound the Eagles" type, who lose money.

[No coincidences]

Thats why theye making less money now than they used to, they have bought into the hype that a few guys are making the market. Their handle was down 20% last year in football, that a huge drop, but mostly because theyre moving lines on the bet of one guy they think knows more than they do.

I find that interesting and fascinating, given how much more "inside information" the general betting public has now vs. then thanks to the Internet. Why you would continue to cater to the "whales" these days is beyond me, knowing how much info. is out there now and at anyone's fingertips.

Hey wanti: do the books move their lines strictly based on bets that come in -- i.e., simple cause and effect -- or do they manipulate lines and/or show "leans" based either on what they think of a particular game or to draw action from the other side? In other words, can lines be taken at faced value simply because of the money coming in, or are the numbers sometimes headfakes?

[tto827]

I find that interesting and fascinating, given how much more "inside information" the general betting public has now vs. then thanks to the Internet.

Hey wanti: do the books move their lines strictly based on bets that come in -- i.e., simple cause and effect -- or do they manipulate lines and/or show "leans" based either on what they think of a particular game or to draw action from the other side? In other words, can lines be taken at faced value simply because of the money coming in, or are the numbers sometimes headfakes?

Brent from dsi touched on something similar this week (maybe it was last week) with Loshak. Some books want to balance the money, even if it means the slight opportunity of being middled. Others are fine with being on the side of the sharps against the larger public money. He also mentioned that sometimes sharps will bet small amounts to move a line in their favor, since it takes less money to move a line early in the week, and then take the other side large when it reaches the number they want.

[stikymess]

A lot of doom and gloom, did they mismanage the money they took in from the previous 8 weeks?

Ask Grits n' Gravy, Year after year the books show a profit for the NFL period.

This is great advertising for them, brings in more action and they will be back on track next week.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

just looking at the beat the prick numbers you know the books got destroyed this weekend. before this weekend the masses were down over 3000 units...

after this week, the public recovered almost 1000 units...

WLT: 23204-22767-896
Percent: 50.48 %
Units: -2,142.47

[BEANTOWNJIM]

WHAT AM I THE ONLY IDIOT THAT LOST YESTERDAY

I HAD THE OVER 44 IN THE COLTS GAME IT LANDS ON 43

I HAD THE NY GIANTS DUMB PICK BUT THEY WERE UP BY 10 POINTS IN THE 3RD QURTER

I HAD THE OVER 199 1/2 IN THE OKLAHOMA ATLANTA GAME AND IT ENDS ON 199 I LOSE BY 1/2 POINT.

ALL SAID AND DONE MY HERITAGE ACCOUNT READS 000 AND BEFORE YESTERDAY IT READ 1643

I MUST HAVE BEEN THE ONLY GUY IN THE UNITED STATES THAT LOST YESTERDAY

[PAULYPOKER]

crazy Beaner,

the only fukk who can make losing a joke

[iwantcougars]

now everyone is an expert, and are telling the books how to run. we were just lucky yesterday its part of the risk, the question can we win the season?

[PAULYPOKER]

now everyone is an expert, and are telling the books how to run. we were just lucky yesterday its part of the risk, the question can we win the season?

No way,

the people who won yesterday are the ones that keep books in business..........

Thinking the books are now going to lose is the same as thinking the world will end on Dec 21st 2012...........

[paranoyd androyd]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/85...k-9-nfl-season

"Years ago, you had about 25 percent of your business tied up in parlays," Vaccaro said. "Now, I think we're coming close to 75 percent of our business is in parlays. People are taking $60 to $70 and hoping it lands every once in a while."

pretty interesting

[wantitall4moi]

books are winning, but not nearly what they had been I really think it is because theyre booking scared and moving lines way too early. Some are always leery of 'head fakes' but this week they barreled lines non stop one way. So even though it looked like they opened themselves up for buy backs they didnt seem too afraid. However its one thing to offer arbitrages on odds where you lose one side, totally another to offer middles up on point spreads and have them both win.

Hey I always win so I cant relate but guys who lose all the time who did well can probably appreciate it :P.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Jimmy Vaccaro is a low life. Guy stole from every place he worked.

Beantownjim is a consistent loser because his walking sperm bank of a wife wears out all the black players after they are done making deposits in her.

Parlay/teaser cards did not offset the action this week.

Yes wanti, some books move on air. Stems from Dr. Bob heyday of 4/5 years back and the rise of Pinny. Book directors at most shops are interchangeable. Not much job security aside from Rood and Johnny A.

[paranoyd androyd]

tell some stories about vaccaro if you have them

[TheLock]

This type of weekend is the best thing to happen to the books. It gives the squares hope and they come out in droves the rest of the season.

And bingo was his name-o