I don't see this as bait, people may take a cue from the browns/chargers win, but Broncos O is starting to get comfortable. I see a game not unlike tonight with the Niners. Broncos by at least 6.
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Nothing to do with being square.. Broncos are best team in afc. Manning is getting stronger each week and team is finally gelling. They have had toughest schedule in nfl. They will probably not lose another game. Cinn is overrated and not very good. This line should be -9. You should nail this game now as the line will move. Sometimes a what looks like a turkey really is a turkey. In the past you never see manning led teams with let downs. Denver needs these games to pad that lead over sdComment -
Texans are the best AFC team. Broncos should be in the Top 5.Comment -
Cincin coming off bye
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Desperate
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Attractive Denver line
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Bengals +160 ML a Wnna chicka dinna!!
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A square is someone who takes the Broncos -3.5, not -3. Understand the difference?
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Cinci bites and isn't going to make the playoffs like they did last year. I don't see any value on them here.Comment -
So if the line drops to -2.5 by game time, is that -3 person a square too?
I was going by the broad definition.
Square plays win too, mostly when sharps are on the same play and move the line.
btw, the line opened -3.5, 3 was mostly juiced and available for a very short time.Comment -
I have denver winning by 5.Comment -
The line opened -3.25 so you pretty much had your choice which way to bet. And it takes a lot to move a line off the 3 at regular juice...so if a person got stuck with -3 and it moved to -2.5 yes you're stuck on the square side.
My question is what makes Denver a "square" play anyways? Because they won on prime-time, that they're the favorite, or Peyton Manning?
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Liking broncos on this one. They will get better each week. Pretty good for a new qb and surgeryComment -
Broncos by 10+Comment -
Square play, for me, can be defined as overwhelming public support. The reason that works is because if you are picking a play that 75% of the public is also on - it isn't exactly "sharp" per se, as the majority of players - regardless of their sharpness or squareness are picking the same play.The line opened -3.25 so you pretty much had your choice which way to bet. And it takes a lot to move a line off the 3 at regular juice...so if a person got stuck with -3 and it moved to -2.5 yes you're stuck on the square side.
My question is what makes Denver a "square" play anyways? Because they won on prime-time, that they're the favorite, or Peyton Manning?
It also allows for some obvious division of the two - because without question, a person betting on a 75% public backed team that wins will call it a "sharp" play.
In the same light, a square play is obviously one that is backed by the public at at least 75%.
That's the way I look at it at least.
That is distinguishing, for me, sharp v. square play.
Sharp v. square player is a different discussion.Comment -
It only means majority of the population will think Denver wins this game.
Nothing to do with the actual "play". That's still uncertain.
The line was a pk'em a few weeks ago so -3 is already inflated and squarish. You can play that numbers game all day.
No one is predicting every line movement and getting the best line every time.
Spread won't matter anyway.Comment -
Pk'em? It's a little unfair to be using preseason spreads in week 9. Last week it was -4 at Cantor in the updated look ahead line. Broncos supporters earned a full point of value based on week 8 games. You think it was the jolly square public who moved it off the -3 this week?Comment -
The only decent team that Cincy's beaten is Washington. I'm on Denver ML -190 large.Comment -
It opened at -3.5 (plus money) at Pinnacle, bet down to -3, back to -3.5(-106).
It depends if you believe any of this stuff but listen to what the DSI guy has to say about the Denver/Cincy game.Comment -
bobby, I fail to see why you don't think there could be decent amount of sharp money on the Bengals?
You think sharps are on Houston this week?
Do only sharps move lines?Comment -
All I have to say about that DSI guy is get real. Public money is utterly irrelevant until Sat/Sun. If sharps loved Cincy in this spot the hook wouldn't be sitting there available all week. Like you said, -3 wasn't available long...why? We're talkin' about the biggest key number. When a line opens on/off 3 with extra juice the early money is generally going to determine which side has value.It opened at -3.5 (plus money) at Pinnacle, bet down to -3, back to -3.5(-106).
It depends if you believe any of this stuff but listen to what the DSI guy has to say about the Denver/Cincy game.Comment -
Vast majority of line movement is dictated by smart money yes. You disagree?
As for Houston, I don't think sharps would want anything to do with the Bills. Fading the Texans isn't a long-term profitable venture...
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I don't disagree. Except for fake line moves.
Remember How I liked Denver at home vs Houston. They lost. Now people think Denver is good.
Don't you think that line would be different now? A lot more people on Denver than before?
Nothing really changed about the teams except perception.
Underrated teams become overrated teams rather quickly. Ex. Vikings.
So who moved this line from -12 to -10, +420 to +380? Were those squares jumping on the Bills? lol
I have Chargers/Packers/Texans ml parlays all over the place and Houston worries me the most here.....Yes Bills suck but...Comment -
I understand the point, but don't really agree about Denver/Houston. Losing Cushing was probably the worst possible player to lose on that defense. Also, Peyton has consistently gotten better. It was going to take time for them to gel and get in sync. Broncos continue to rise the stat charts.
For the Bills game, the look ahead was -9.5...opened in -11 range. Settled on -10. Doesn't really say much since it didn't cross the 10. It's the same number I got so I can't imagine a big move on the Bills, but we'll see what it closes at.
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5dimes most favorite super match up is Texans vs Niners +1250
Kind of surprising.Comment -
Indy Peyton now Denver fan so I watch every one of their games. They've made some key def. changes that aren't being noticed yet. Joe Mays/Tracy Porter out......Chris Harris (good young corner), Keith Brookings, and Jim Leonhard in. Both Brookings and Leonhard provide big game veteran experience. They made these changes after the Pats game since then they've held SD to 7 legit points and New Orleans to 14.
TE Virgil Green (3 catches for 44 yards...one for 28) also just got back from a 6 game suspension....give PM another 6'5 250+ target...plus their only real blocking TE. Marvin Lewis is drawing a line in the sand but this Bengals team doesn't have enough firepower to hang around
Denver -3 paying the juiceComment -
Lol at people betting against Manning in this shit showComment -
I mentioned this in another thread but I would have to think that home dogs after a bye week have to be a good opportunity. NFL is all about parity, never more so than this year. I would like to see an ATS record in the above situation.Comment -
There's also talk that Woodyard is going to keep a lot of his reps even after DJ comes back from suspension.
For me Broncos -3 is a clear option here. Let's consider who they lost to early in the year...Texans and Patriots/Falcons on the road. Bengals have a HORRIBLE record ATS vs playoff teams going back to last year. Not surprised at all the line moved to -4....Comment -
a dream b/c squares will win...
denver all dayComment -
Bengals win straight up.Cause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
CIN+3.5 seems much more likely than DEN-3.5 IMO.Comment
