Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=30839367'>posted</a> on 04/10/2022:
Agreed. It's just that some people have no appetite for "risk" and variance. Can't handle the swings. You pay for the privilege of "smoother" returns.
Originally posted by KVB
I totally get what your saying here. And I think you and I are beyond the hedge/arb semantics, but you really aren't hedging in the sense I'm talking about in what you put in bold in my post. I think you get that too.
You started with "yes and no" but as I read further we see why. You say "don't hedge" max bet, and then talk about "partially at an arb".
We aren't disagreeing, but I'm most certainly not talking about an arb strategy when I talk about selling back a +EV bet.
I'm talking about selling back, paying extra vig, and partially reducing you're payout so you can walk away with something over nothing. I'm talking about hedging out of the bet.
If the bet is +EV, just go with it, be patient, and have patience in the long term...math and volume like you say.
But understand that what you are talking about is incredibly useful for many reasons. It's not the straight +EV wager strategy, it is a different strategy that can not only help pad the bankroll, but can also be used to move Funds around the marketplace.
Fuk, did I just say that?
lol
Eventually, sticking to almost soley that partial or total arb startegy, those of us with experience in the practice will often see, no matter the massive numbers of accounts at different books, no matter teh network, if you do it long enough you'll find that one particular set of accounts, all at one particular book, ends up getting all the losses. They get the money you don't walk away with.
All accounts rise at other books, but one book must be reloaded constantly while you are making profit.
One book.
In the whole entire world.
You started with "yes and no" but as I read further we see why. You say "don't hedge" max bet, and then talk about "partially at an arb".
We aren't disagreeing, but I'm most certainly not talking about an arb strategy when I talk about selling back a +EV bet.
I'm talking about selling back, paying extra vig, and partially reducing you're payout so you can walk away with something over nothing. I'm talking about hedging out of the bet.
If the bet is +EV, just go with it, be patient, and have patience in the long term...math and volume like you say.
But understand that what you are talking about is incredibly useful for many reasons. It's not the straight +EV wager strategy, it is a different strategy that can not only help pad the bankroll, but can also be used to move Funds around the marketplace.
Fuk, did I just say that?
lol
Eventually, sticking to almost soley that partial or total arb startegy, those of us with experience in the practice will often see, no matter the massive numbers of accounts at different books, no matter teh network, if you do it long enough you'll find that one particular set of accounts, all at one particular book, ends up getting all the losses. They get the money you don't walk away with.
All accounts rise at other books, but one book must be reloaded constantly while you are making profit.
One book.
In the whole entire world.