Originally <a href='https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/showthread.php?p=29072990'>posted</a> on 11/25/2019:
The market closing line is efficient over a large sample, no-one here claims it's 100% efficient for every game so it's definitely possible to "select" those games where the market is off. I have yet to see someone do it over a large sample size though, so somehow I don't believe you have now magically found that formula if any of your previous posts are an indication. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. From what I gather you are looking at something along the lines of form from favourites and are betting the dogs at high odds. I assure you anything that simple has been priced in and you have simply been getting lucky. At those odds, variance goes a long way. So does survivership bias. As I said somewhere else: come back in a year or 2 when you've made 1k + plays on these.
You won't, either because you'll have lost your shirt or because you are have become a pro.
The market closing line is efficient over a large sample, no-one here claims it's 100% efficient for every game so it's definitely possible to "select" those games where the market is off. I have yet to see someone do it over a large sample size though, so somehow I don't believe you have now magically found that formula if any of your previous posts are an indication. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. From what I gather you are looking at something along the lines of form from favourites and are betting the dogs at high odds. I assure you anything that simple has been priced in and you have simply been getting lucky. At those odds, variance goes a long way. So does survivership bias. As I said somewhere else: come back in a year or 2 when you've made 1k + plays on these.
You won't, either because you'll have lost your shirt or because you are have become a pro.