Originally posted on 11/25/2019:

Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
Read the OP again until you get it. Do you think that the next 1000 soccer favs that close at 2.0 will all have 48-50% chance to win? Is it so hard to believe that 50 of them have only a 40% chance to win? If you think the market gets every game right you're insane. If you don't think that then I'm right.

And I have an NHL thread as an example. But to people like you I just keep getting lucky all the time so what does it prove? Also my record posted above is legit but according to you every odds range should eventually get into the red and lose on juice because muh efficient market.
The market closing line is efficient over a large sample, no-one here claims it's 100% efficient for every game so it's definitely possible to "select" those games where the market is off. I have yet to see someone do it over a large sample size though, so somehow I don't believe you have now magically found that formula if any of your previous posts are an indication. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. From what I gather you are looking at something along the lines of form from favourites and are betting the dogs at high odds. I assure you anything that simple has been priced in and you have simply been getting lucky. At those odds, variance goes a long way. So does survivership bias. As I said somewhere else: come back in a year or 2 when you've made 1k + plays on these.

You won't, either because you'll have lost your shirt or because you are have become a pro.