Originally posted on 01/29/2018:

Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
Dave,

Took last week off from almost all sports betting except a few NBA 2h's, the under in the pro bowl (they actually try now, it's a fun game for the first time ever!) and your nice winner in the highly enjoyable warriors/celtics game.

From a statistical model perspective, do you believe that it makes sense to just add a certain number to the pats at this point? I mentioned before the Jags game that the pats opponents have severely underperformed their stats. We saw Jax do the same in an AFC title game that should have us asking ourselves if Blake the Snake would be turned into a cute plush doll jags fans can buy their kids.

Statistically I see such a big advantage for Philly just like I did with Jax and while I secured enough +5.5 to feel comfortable, I do wonder if i'll just be giving away money playing the ML and alt spreads.

Im ready to add a TD to my NEP stats!
A big part of this actually takes care of itself if turnovers and special teams are factored into the equations well. Where the Patriots are so good is at allowing fewer points than the performance of the defense would seemingly call for, which was a topic of discussion last week. So much of that stems from two key areas: they don't turn the ball over often, which means fewer opportunities for an immediate score by the opposing defense, and also fewer opportunities in good field position following a TO; and outstanding special teams, which consistently force the opposition to start in bad field position.

Over the past two seasons the Patriots have been the only team that has limited the opposition to starting the average drive inside of their own 25-yard line, and they did it in both campaigns. So what was a prime reason why Jacksonville did not maximize off of the offensive production? The average Jaguars drive started at their 20.8 yard line. The NFL average this season was 28.2, which meant that over the course of 11 drives (I don't count the kneel-down possession at the end of the first half), the Jax offense had an additional 81.4 yards tacked on that they had to navigate vs. the average SOP (Start of Possession).

That was not a one-off, it is what the Patriots do. Hence something like this needs to be a part of any rating system, the average SOP for the New England offense, and defense, in 2017 and 2016:

Avg SOP 2017 2016
Offense 27.7 (17) 30.7 (2)
Defense 24.6 (1) 24.9 (1)

This will be one of the lead topics that I will weave in (probably on Wednesday) because it deserves a little more attention. Imagine how big of a plus it is to get an advantage of 3.1 yards over your opponent at the start of each drive, and LY it was a robust 5.8. That is not just hot dice being rolled, but rather some intelligent football design and execution.