Originally posted on 11/14/2017:

Quote Originally Posted by SportsHec8 View Post
Dave I'll provide some color on this while also ask a question about the upcoming week

1) With the Giants now my #32 Defense and the ghastly performance vs SF on Sunday, I made over 44 in the KC game one my strongest plays of the season. As you can see, I have KC rated 30 and while the Giants don't have much offensively, there should be enough there to allow eli to get me a couple td's, which is all i think i'll need if KC gets the 30+ i expect. Any thoughts on that total?

2) The other game with seemingly terrible defenses facing off is Oak/NEP. I made that total 59 so I fired on over 51. But it has to be said that NEP again held another opponent to under 20 pts while giving up over 5.9 YPP. Is their redzone D truly that spectacular? I was happy to cash the over ticket on SNF but did feel fortunate with the special teams providing so much of the help. How much have you upgraded NEP's defense?

3) There will be an awful lot written about the Sean Lee absence for Dallas. The numbers are dramatically different. But is one player really that important on defense or was it just that he missed games against Atlanta, Green Bay and LAR?

I ask this because the 48 seemed way too high for SNF. Eagles #1 Run D will make it very difficult for dallas to move the ball and may be it's wrong but I still believe Dallas has put together a top 10 D, especially on the Dline that will pressure Wentz all night long.

Thank you!
The Giants defense is a grading conundrum, as are the Broncos, because the capacity is for far between than what we have seen from them, Denver #1 and NYG #2 on the Football Outsiders adjusted ratings last year, without many changes in personnel. So some of their downfall may be football regression off of 2016 being a little too good, and some of it certainly stems from a lack of passion in recent weeks. But is there a sense of professionalism still there with either that could have them trying to right the wrongs? The situations are vastly different, one team with coaches on the way out, and another with a new staff trying to build something, but I will be doing a lot of reading between the lines for both, their attitudes influencing how I weigh their statistics. I can't fault a KC Over notion, since the Chiefs run some complex offensive schemes that force an opponent to study hard during the week, which NYG may not do, all the while if McAdoo is on the way out, he may get creative and open up his own offensive playbook down the stretch (certainly no reason not to).

My Patriot defensive upgrades have been slow, but gradual. In watching their games it is as much what the opposition is doing wrong as what they have been doing right, even admitting that part of the program for them is in getting the opposition to be inefficient. I am still keeping them down because they just aren't making plays to force action: #32 in Yards Per Rush; #20 in Interception% and #27 in Sack%. They have to rely on the opposition not maximizing, because they still aren't stepping up and making clean stops.

There is a lot to be said for itemizing the Lee In/Out based on the opposition, but there has also been a body of work accumulating - while he wasn't a starter as a rookie in 2010, since then he has missed 22 regular-season games. It may be more of an issue this time because one of the things the Cowboys have done intentionally has been to get their best players on the field in the DL, regardless of traditional position fits, and while that has made the pass rush dynamic, they are #24 in yards per rush allowed, and I believe when the Football Outsiders have their updated rush defense rankings out tomorrow morning the Cowboys are going to be #31. They can get after QBs, but they can also be blocked at the point of attack on running plays, and without lee cleaning up against the run, his absence may be magnified this time.