Originally posted on 06/15/2015:

yes, and the fact that with a 5%-min "rake" on each choice guaranteed (without risk) to a book that achieves balance on each side (by boosting the payout on the thin side/shrinking it on the fat side)...a book tends to not want to, in general form an "opinion" on a match (ie. try to steer/"trap" the public on the side that their opinion says will lose...

opinionated lines DO form from time to time, generally in hi-profile/big-$ markets...it is in essence the book gambling...if they're right (and they have succeeded to steer/trap more $ to the losing side) they score windfall $ over the basic rake (the chalk difference between the dog/fave prices)...but if they are wrong, the book loses money relative to what they'd have made with a non-opinionated line...and in some cases they may be very successful in steering money to what they thing will be the losing side...and end up actually losing money to the public when that side cashes...

it's a real headache to actually "work" a line actively according to an opinion of the future...and since there's a damn-nice rake guaranteed to them by the chalk if they automatically avoid an opinion and just balance the money passively..to the point that actively worked/opinionated lines are MUCH rarer than people imagine...and tend to be confined to the hi-profile events (such as playoff final series, tenny slams, golf majors, etc.)

so, interpreting observable price differences as books trying to steer you ACTIVELY into one side because they know it'll lose (rather than trying to steer you PASSIVELY into the thin side to help them balance the sides and thus lock in the chalk) is always an option, but it is exhausting intellectually and most often inaccurate

when there's a hugely public event, it's good to suspect steering/trapping motives behind initial line-settings and subsequent price movements...but most of the time, it's better to forget this extra layer of intrigue and concentrate on finding value in poorly-placed lines (which creates a bargain price on one side of bet)--a difficult enough undertaking on its own at the best of times