Originally posted on 08/22/2013:

8/22

Minnesota Twins +1.5 (+105) 5Dimes
Chicago White Sox (+157) 5Dimes

YTD
148-142-2 +16.36u

I normally don't bet +1.5 but I feel it's an auto play here at this number. Going a little contrarion with the selection as well. Verlander is 2-0 this season against the Twins with a 0.75 ERA and no Mauer in the lineup. Tigers are supposed to roll here and Joe Public will be hammering the Tigers RL after yesterday's "easy" 7-1 win. Setup for a public burial?

If you took +1.5 runs against Verlander in each of his 26 starts this season, you'd be 14-12. It's always tough cashing a home Run Line and Verlander is still getting credit for his name here on overpriced lines toward the end of the regular season. His skill set doesn't match the juice you have to lay on him anymore. He's a pedestrian 5-5 at home this season with a 3.56 ERA. He has a WAR this season of 3.6 (almost half of what it was last season), all his advanced #'s are worse from last season, his walk rate is up almost a full point BB/9 innings, his strike out rate is down and his average fastball has slowed down every year since it peaked in 2009. Verlander's fastball is averaging 93.1 MPH this season. Opponents are hitting .257 off Verlander at Comerica. Mauer is out, but the Twins still have a lineup that can power it out of the ball park. The Tigers always seem to lull them self to sleep around this time of year and make the Central Division far more interesting than it should be. Miggy is banged up with bad wheels. I mean Christ, Kevin Correia was beating this lineup tonight until the bottom of the 7th inning. It's not out of line to think this Albers kid can bounce back and throw a crafty quality start.

With the White Sox, again, I'm going against a pitcher here in Shields that just hasn't fared that well at home this season. Shields is 2-5 with a 4.15ERA, batters are hitting .262 off of him at Kauffman Stadium. Quintana on the other hand pitches very similarly home vs. away, yet he has not been credited with a loss on the road yet this season. More of a statistical aberration, but kind of funny. I have these two pitchers matched up very evenly and believe this game is much more of a coin toss than the line suggests.

*On a side note, I see a lot of people complaining about how rough August has been in bases and how they can't wait for football season to start. Baseball is still beatable late in the season, but you have to be ultra selective and stick with the +$ bets. I'm on pace for my best all around month in August. So far in 37 total plays in August, I'm 24-12-1 66.67% +16.84u. I'm on pace to have a higher unit count, win percentage, and lowest # of units risked all season. All but 2 of my 37 wagers were risking 1u or to win 1u. The two that were not were both to win 2u bets. I also played more dogs in August than any other month. Out of my 37 graded wagers, 26 of them have been +$ wagers (+100 or lower lines) that's 70.27%. Now, I'm not posting these #'s to brag, but to show that it's possible to profit without chasing a bunch of juice or making a lot of multiple unit bets. Just like avoiding bad bets, it's important to avoid risking an unnecessary # of units. Take advantage of the +$ plays while bases is still around, boys. Before long, we are all going to be laying juice on every spread bet and posting about how we cannot wait until bases is back.