Originally posted on 10/10/2012:

Interesting concept here guys and a belated congrats on hitting the first attempt. This experiment peaked my interest so I decided to look a little deeper into the percentages of underdogs winning outright against a -350 favorite in college football (entire game). Some interesting tidbits:

Through Week 6 of the 2012 College Football Season

-91.2% of favorites -350 or greater were winners (Lines based off Pinnacle closing #s)
-13 underdogs won outright out of a 147 game sample.
-Of those 13 underdogs, 5 teams upset were from the ACC. (38%)
-10 out of 13 upsets were BCS conference schools being upset (77%)
-Georgia Tech and Air Force have been upset as -350 or greater favorites TWICE


What can we learn from this? Well for one, the ACC cannot be trusted. Each year the few teams that are expected to carry the flag for the conference are beat by an inferior opponent. Clemson, Va Tech and FSU have each had their share of let downs in recent years. Also, these numbers are not to ensure that -350 will hit at a 90% clip, these numbers are padded by heavy moneyline favorites that offer little to no value to bet at all. Also not many non BCS conference schools were upset. I attibute that to a few things, one being that the disparity from top to bottom of these conferences could be so great that upsets are minimal. It also could be due to the fact that alot of these schools are going against BCS conference members early on in the year in non conference matchups to where they rarely are greater than a TD favorite.

In comparison to previous years, this year seems to be on pace for similar results. Phil Steele included a blog that referenced how often underdogs win outright from a 1997-2011. Teams that were 10.5 point favorites or greater were upset 9.8% of the time (compare to this year upsets occuring 8.8%). Seems like a good plan that will require patience and spots to be chosen wisely. Just wanted to share some info with you guys and if anyone wants me to analyze these numbers from a different angle, let me know. Best of luck.