I'll give it a shot...
Probability of guessing the exact score of 1 set:
There are two scores, the loser and the winner. The winner's score (aka # of games won will be 6 or 7), and the loser's score can be any of 0-6).
Probability of guessing the 1st part of the set right (winner) = 1/2 = 0.50 (50%)
Probability of guessing the 2nd part of the set right (loser) = 1/7 = 0.143 (14.3%)
Probability of guessing both right (Multiply the two together) = 0.50 x 0.143 = 0.0715 = 7.15%
Probability of guessing all three set scores right = The above number ^ to the power of 3....
0.0715 ^ 3 = 0.000366 = 0.037%
Obviously, that's the probability only if we know its a straight set victory...having to guess the # of sets will reduce this number DRASTICALLY. And I'm not sure how to build that into the equation but it could be along the lines of this:
Probability of guessing the # of sets right = 1/3 (Either ends in 3, 4, or 5 sets). So the finals will be one of the following results:
3-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00012062
4-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00000862
5-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00000062
*0.0715 is the key number. Thats the probability of guessing the exact score of a given set, so we just multiply it by itself as many times as the # of sets in each given situation.
And also, this is assuming we know the finalists...if you factor in the chances of guessing the exact match-up, ull have to add in a couple of more zeros to those numbers
Those numbers above are inflated because there are several assumptions made.
Probability of guessing the exact score of 1 set:
There are two scores, the loser and the winner. The winner's score (aka # of games won will be 6 or 7), and the loser's score can be any of 0-6).
Probability of guessing the 1st part of the set right (winner) = 1/2 = 0.50 (50%)
Probability of guessing the 2nd part of the set right (loser) = 1/7 = 0.143 (14.3%)
Probability of guessing both right (Multiply the two together) = 0.50 x 0.143 = 0.0715 = 7.15%
Probability of guessing all three set scores right = The above number ^ to the power of 3....
0.0715 ^ 3 = 0.000366 = 0.037%
Obviously, that's the probability only if we know its a straight set victory...having to guess the # of sets will reduce this number DRASTICALLY. And I'm not sure how to build that into the equation but it could be along the lines of this:
Probability of guessing the # of sets right = 1/3 (Either ends in 3, 4, or 5 sets). So the finals will be one of the following results:
3-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00012062
4-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00000862
5-setter: Probability = 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.0715 x 0.33 = 0.00000062
*0.0715 is the key number. Thats the probability of guessing the exact score of a given set, so we just multiply it by itself as many times as the # of sets in each given situation.
And also, this is assuming we know the finalists...if you factor in the chances of guessing the exact match-up, ull have to add in a couple of more zeros to those numbers
Those numbers above are inflated because there are several assumptions made.