What I've Learned - Betting Strategies : Nominated Post

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The problem with 'variance' in gambling is your making plays into lines that arent mathematically valid. meaning if you flip a coin a thousand times youre going to see something fairy close to 50%. Same as with cards or dice, all have a mathematically verifiable probability.

Sports betting has no such validity. Lines arent predictors nor are they supposed to be. That is why they are volatile and move. Obviously the logic would dictate that if you are 'good' at gambling you will recognize which side of a line to bet more often than not. But since sports arent always predictable either you have a lot of things going against you in terms of finding your 'mean'. Your prediction of a line being wrong could be correct but the results didnt end up that way, and vice versa, a team was better than the line indicated but for some reason it didnt turn out that way. basically the old adage...'right side wrong result' excuse.

So you could be on the 'right' side of every line move you make and still lose. Sounds like a clearly wrong statement but it is true. Thats why math and logic and too much thinking is just a waste of time. It also isnt safe to assume that over more lays you will lessen these 'bad' results. because there are bad results in a lot of games. Some are flukey, some are just circumstantial. baseball and Hoops are the most circumstantial. An error or a called fourth ball instead of a strike to end an inning can kill many a game. A made 3 pointer that leads to intentional fouls down the stretch can kill a total or even a point spread really quick. You have a team +7, theyre down 6, go down and make a basket it looks like an easy cover, suddenly they start fouling and soon are down 9 or 10. That happens a lot. OT obviously kills a lot of totals as well, you have a 188 total, score is 85-88 with 3 seconds left, a team makes a desperation 3 and it goes to OT your toast. Bad beat or expected result? Depends on perspective I suppose but I dont see many people saying "game could go to OT and get me the over" too much in their analysis.

So it is hard to get these mathematical theories plugged into sports and have them be workable.

Can you show me a major sport in the last 10 years where any of the below is true?

a) Favourites have covered the closing spread in more than 50% of all matches
b) Underdogs have covered the closing spread in more than 52% of all matches
c) Totals have gone over the closing total in more than 50% of all matches
d) Totals have gone over the closing total in more than 52% of all matches

I bet you can't, in fact I know you can't.

NFL and NBA markets have had a remarkable tendency towards 51% underdogs covering and 51% unders hitting over whatever timeframe you care to look at. This means that these markets represent highly efficient vehicles and it is for this reason that even the very best bettors will struggle to hit at over 55% on a consistent basis and by the same token why even the biggest square shaped hamburger will hit at 46 or 47%.

Lines/odds in major sports ARE predictors and they are very good predictors. They are so good that beating those lines by a single point in basketball is, conclusively, enough to turn a 50% 'picker' into someone who can WILL in the long run if betting at level stakes.

Picking the right side on the basis of information that is widely available to and used by everyone who has an interest in betting on a match as well as the oddsmakers, or by watching the teams involved previous matches is not easy. If it was more people would be able to do it. Do you think you are going to beat these markets by watching games on TV or gleaning basic stats from ESPN?

The idea "math and logic.... are a waste of time" is just laugahble, How do you think Billy Walters determines his fair line? The history of the Computer Group should give you a clue. Likewise how to LVSC or Pinnacle determine their openers? Do they utilise mathematical modeling or do they stick a finger in the air to determine which way the wind is blowing?