Originally Posted by
wantitall4moi
The problem with 'variance' in gambling is your making plays into lines that arent mathematically valid. meaning if you flip a coin a thousand times youre going to see something fairy close to 50%. Same as with cards or dice, all have a mathematically verifiable probability.
Sports betting has no such validity. Lines arent predictors nor are they supposed to be. That is why they are volatile and move. Obviously the logic would dictate that if you are 'good' at gambling you will recognize which side of a line to bet more often than not. But since sports arent always predictable either you have a lot of things going against you in terms of finding your 'mean'. Your prediction of a line being wrong could be correct but the results didnt end up that way, and vice versa, a team was better than the line indicated but for some reason it didnt turn out that way. basically the old adage...'right side wrong result' excuse.
So you could be on the 'right' side of every line move you make and still lose. Sounds like a clearly wrong statement but it is true. Thats why math and logic and too much thinking is just a waste of time. It also isnt safe to assume that over more lays you will lessen these 'bad' results. because there are bad results in a lot of games. Some are flukey, some are just circumstantial. baseball and Hoops are the most circumstantial. An error or a called fourth ball instead of a strike to end an inning can kill many a game. A made 3 pointer that leads to intentional fouls down the stretch can kill a total or even a point spread really quick. You have a team +7, theyre down 6, go down and make a basket it looks like an easy cover, suddenly they start fouling and soon are down 9 or 10. That happens a lot. OT obviously kills a lot of totals as well, you have a 188 total, score is 85-88 with 3 seconds left, a team makes a desperation 3 and it goes to OT your toast. Bad beat or expected result? Depends on perspective I suppose but I dont see many people saying "game could go to OT and get me the over" too much in their analysis.
So it is hard to get these mathematical theories plugged into sports and have them be workable.