Go to ESPN.com and there are 11 different individual passing stats listed. There are nine individual rushing stats and 11 receiving stats. There are even nine individual scoring stats, from rushing touchdowns to points per game.
But wait, there's more.
Return breakdowns, kicking breakdowns, punting breakdowns, defensive statistical breakdowns. And then there is what happens in the team statistical categories. On the home page alone, between offense, defense and special teams, there are 27 categories of statistics to analyze. Everything from offensive third-down conversion rates to forced fumbles.
The fact we can break down NFL numbers to their most minute form is not a news flash. Coaches, fans and Bill Jamesian disciples have been adding layers of statistical analysis to every sport like they were app tiles for years. Even coaches in free-flowing games like hockey and soccer are now diving into the matrix of digits and algorithms to find ways to perform at a higher level.
For the stat-heads running franchises, the constant struggle is deciphering which numbers matter and will improve performance and which are full of sound and fury, but actually signify nothing. The same is true for bettors, especially the latest and greatest generation of handicappers who belong to the analytics camp. Is yards per play a better identifier of a team's true performance than yards per point? We know total yards is a scam, but what about average rushing yards per game?
The smart sharps are in a constant state of re-evaluation, examining their philosophies, their ratings and their formulas. They back-test to see if the stat they thought mattered actually leads to tighter power ratings and more accurate predictions. If they don't, they die. Or at least lose their bankroll.
So I was impressed the other day when I received an email from The SportsBoss, who has been a column regular over the years. He came to me the old-fashioned way, aggressively emailing his statistical breakdowns of games until I finally called him back. And I was glad I did, because he is the kind of analyst who represents a lot of what the industry looks like right now: young, a love of sports, an MBA from an elite school, a career in finance.
The SportsBoss analyzes each team from the perspective of 16 different categories on offense and defense. Within each category, he has five statistical plateaus for which a team is given a point. For example, if a team rushes for 168 yards per game, it gets a five. If it rushes for 65 yards or fewer per game, it gets a zero. He adds up the total number of points he prescribes for offense and defense to give each team a rating.
A perfect team gets 160 points (80 for offense and 80 for defense. If you are mathematically challenged like me, he gets the 80 by multiplying the number of total categories, 16, by the number of total possible points for each one, five).
"In all my years, no one has ever received a score of 160," he says. "The highest this year was Houston rating a 144 against Tennessee in Week 7, which the Texans won 41-7."
Some of the categories he chooses are obvious: Yards per rush, yards per pass attempt, sacks. But some others speak to a deeper understanding of what matters in handicapping: third- and fourth-down conversions, the first-down rushing percentage of total carries.
When The SportsBoss breaks down a game, he will take one team's per-game average for each stat, plus the opponent's defensive yield for that stat, average them and then prescribe his 0-5 grade. For example, let's look at Atlanta-Jacksonville from Thursday night. On offense, the Falcons gain 4.07 yards per rush this season. The Jags allow 4.02 ypr. The average of those two is the expectation of what the Falcons would gain, which was 4.05. The Boss graded that as a two (teams need to be projected to gain 5.4 ypc or higher to reach a rating of five).
Here's another example: The Falcons gain 111.6 yards rushing per game. Jacksonville gives up 111.5. That averaged to 111.5, essentially, so The Boss gave a rating of a three (remember, 168 or higher yields a rating of five).
When he added the 32 total categories for each team, Atlanta rated as a 90 (40.5 points on offense, 49.5 points on defense) and Jax was a 70 (30.5 and 39.5 respectively.)
The way most handicappers use power ratings is by comparing the number they have for one team to the number they have for their opponent and then comparing that difference to the posted point spread. If there is a significant difference, they find value and make the bet. The SportsBoss does that, too. But he also runs models like the one above. "This is not meant to mean that Atlanta is projected to win by 20 points," he says.
Instead, what he is working on is determining how often teams with ratings of 80 or more actually cover the spread, regardless of their opponent's rating. It's an analytical tweak in handicapping's evolution. I've seen his results going back to the start of the 2010 season and they are strong, unusually strong. If I repeated them, it would make me look like an irresponsible carnival barker who claims he found the cure for cancer and it's just behind the flaps of this tent.
The SportsBoss speaks

Using 80 as a baseline, here are the teams The SportsBoss feels the strongest about this week.
Team Rating Houston 95 Cincinnati 93 Tennessee 92.5 New Orleans 92.5 Dallas 92 Green Bay 91 Atlanta 90 Baltimore 89

And even The SportsBoss admits it's too early to get excited. "What I need to do is continue to refine the rating system from a projection perspective before any of this can really be utilized to its fullest extent."
A rating of 80 is the baseline. So I asked The SportsBoss to send me the teams he felt strongest about this week, along with their rating based on his math. See the chart to the right:
We break down five of them below. We excluded Houston, because the seasonlong numbers are not reflective of T.J. Yates being under center. And we excluded Green Bay, because the other games rated higher include pass-heavy teams, and I wanted to see how the formula plays out from a defensive perspective.
Matchup: Cincinnati Bengals at St. Louis Rams

Line moves: Opened at Bengals minus-6.5 and holding.
The Sports Boss says: "That is almost exclusively driven by Cincy's defense against the Rams' offense. Within the defense, it is mostly the rushing metrics. In yards per rush and rushing yards, those are Cincy's strong points and St. Louis' weakness. For completion percentage, St. Louis only gets one point when stacked against Cincy.
Also, I think sacks will be huge in this game. St. Louis allows the most and Cincy records nearly three a game. Finally, in ypp, St. Louis is second-worst in the league and Cincy is fifth-best ypp allowed. The way I see this through these stats is that St. Louis will struggle to run the ball early and go into passing situations, and there will be pressure on Bradford, with an O-line that stinks. Meanwhile, St. Louis' rushing D has given us six straight 100-yard games."
Matchup: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

Line moves: Opened at Titans minus-7, currently Titans minus-6.5.
The Sports Boss says: "What really stands out all year is Matt Hasselbeck has played a lot better than people expected, and Indy's pass defense has been brutal. It is ranked 32nd in the league in total D. That is killing them as much as the offense. The stats where the Titans pick up a lot of points in my model is ypp, where Indy is allowing 7.4 and the Titans gain 6.5. In completion percentage, Indy allows 71.5 percent, so that is another area where the Titans pick up rating points. They can control this game with their passing. Tennessee is going to have the edge there and combine that with Chris Johnson against Indy's bottom-of-the-pack rush D, and this is a game where the Titans will have no trouble moving the ball via pass or rush."
Matchup: New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings

Line moves: Saints opened at minus-7, currently at minus-6.5.
The Sports Boss says: "All the edge here is driven by the success New Orleans will have on offense. New Orleans is scoring four or five in most of my metrics. In yards per passing attempt, the Saints are picking up four points in that. Completion percentage, they are also picking up four points. And then passing yards, the Saints average 325 a game, which is first, while the Vikings are 26th in the league with 248.8, so the rating for that is a five for New Orleans. Even QB rating grades out to a five. Tim Tebow had his best game against the Vikings secondary, so you know they will give up a lot."
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Line moves: Dallas opened at minus-7 and holding.
The Sports Boss says: "Looking closer at Dallas, it is mostly its offense driving this rating. Dallas is sixth in the league in yards per pass attempt and Tampa is dead last in defense, so that is worth four. Dallas is six in passing yards and Tampa is 27th, so that was worth four. The gain for ypp and yield for ypp is 6.2 for both, so that was a five. You can feel pretty good about this one, because the numbers seem to match up well."
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers

Line moves: Ravens opened at minus-1, currently at minus-2.5.
The Sports Boss says: "Baltimore is scoring an 89, but most of that is driven by its defense. The Ravens' yards per rush is first, their rushing yards per game allowed is second. They are top three in the first seven stats I cover. And this season, the Chargers' running game is better than their passing game. It doesn't seem like San Diego will be able to run the way it would like, and when it has to start passing, it faces the No. 1 defense against gains per play, sacks and passing touchdowns."