Originally posted on 07/01/2010:

#1: LA Angels -124

Yesterday we successfuly faded Kazmir, and today we're going to successfuly back Jered Weaver.

CJ Wilson has an ERA of 2.70 with WHIP of 1.3 in his last 3 starts. In 20 innings he has given up only 13 hits (very good). But he does have 13 BB's to 13 K's in that span (1 to 1 ratio). That is pretty poor. For the season he has issued 69 K's to 44 BB's in 96 innings. By the way, Wilson is a life-time reliever who was converted to a starter for the first time this year. He has already pitched 23 innings more than he did in any other year of his career. He had a nice start to the season but I expect him to regress a bit going forward.

In his last 3 games, Weaver has an equally impressive 2.25 ERA and a WHIP of 0.7 (half of what Wilson had). In 20 innings pitched, he has given up 12 hits but only 2 BB's to 29 K's. Those are some pretty sick #'s. Compare Wilsons 1:1 K to BB ratio with Weaver's 14.5:1 K to BB.

Both pitchers struggled in their last outing against one another (May this year). Wilson went 4.3 innings, giving up 7 hits, 7 ER's, 2 HR's while Weaver went 4.7 innings, giving up 7 ER's, on 9 hits, and 3 HR's. The difference was that Weaver was on the road. At home this year, he has an ERA of 1.96 and WHIP of 1.043. Also, he has a lifetime ERA of 3.88 and WHIP of 1.242 against the Rangers, so I'll chalk up his last outing as an anomoly. Wilson on the other hand has a lifetime ERA of 12.0 and WHIP of 2.0 against the Halos.

Looking at advanced stats, seals the deal for us on this play. Weaver's K/BB on the season is 5, while Wilson's is a mediocre 1.57. Why is Wilson's ERA (3.35)so close to Weaver's (3.01)? Well, he has a BABIP of .256, the 9th most luckiest in the league, while Weaver's is at .311. Like I mentioned above, expect Wilson to regress to the mean quickly. Wilson's FIP is 4.07 and xFIP is 4.60. Compare that to Weaver's 2.93 FIP (6th best in the league) and 3.22 xFIP (4th best in the league) and we clearly see that there's a ton of value on Weaver today. Oh, and a final note: Wilson's E-F discrepancy is -.72, which is the 19th highest to the negative side, further indicating that we will see a big regression in his performance.

Finally, I talked yesterday that Texas has had double digit hits in their last 6 games. Well that was snapped yesterday, as they had 9 hits (still very solid, but against a very mediocre pitcher in Kazmir) overall, and left 5 men on base. I don't expect them to hit as well against Weaver today. Angels on the other hand had 8 hits, but left 9 men on base. I expect them to bring a few more of those baserunners home as they get to the over-valued Wilson tonight.

#2: St Louis Cardinals -130

Yesterday I faded one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball in Scott Kazmir, and today I'm going to fade THE WORST ONE! Randy Wolf has an ERA of 4.92 on the season with a WHIP of 1.57. Looking at advanced stats, his FIP is 6.05 and xFIP is 5.39, both are the worst in the league among starting pitchers. Interestingly enough, his BABIP is .279, 34th luckiest in the league, telling us that there is still room for even further decline to his terrible #'s. HIs E-F is -1.13 to the negative, ranking 9th worst in the league. I expect Wolf to pitch even worse than he has been so far, especially against a Cardinals lineup that hits .270 against him.

Cardinals' pitcher Hawksworth is nothing special, but he did have a very efficient outing last time out, going 5 innings, giving up 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 BB and 1K against Kansas City. If he can give 5 innings tonight, Cardinals' superior bullpen will close the deal the rest of the way.

One key note: scanning the preview by Stats LLC ==> Hawksworth has NOT given up even 1 run against Milwaukee, having pitched 6 times against them in relief, spanning 8 innings. I like this investment even better already!