The Prediction Machine/Accuscore and Gil Alexander

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  • sunzal
    SBR MVP
    • 10-13-10
    • 1245

    #1
    The Prediction Machine/Accuscore and Gil Alexander
    I will post all 3 together because they all use computer models- which I'm a fan of.....whenever they all overlap I will hit it hard....The only overlap for today is Gil and TPM both having high rated plays on White Sox- nothing on all 3)

    Accuscore is tough to track- their 3 and 4s are doing well overall but that's a lot of plays

    TPM is up overall but also lots of plays- sticking with the highest rated for a while

    Gil is getting hammered hammered hammered- but gotta get out of this slump sometime

    THE PREDICTION MACHINE

    The number I post is the difference between what the expected percentage chance victory under their model and the percentage that would be necessary at the ML

    I will only list those higher than 2.7 because that is the point at which we must hit for cash

    Sides

    Normal Plays:

    White Sox at -120 4.8%

    Weak Plays

    Toronto at 153 ia 6% (not sure why this is rated as weak and not normal like WS play- makes me want to lay off of it)
    Texas at +120 4.6%
    Colorado at 102 3.3%

    Totals:

    Totals are written like their hoop plays- just the percent likliehood of success

    Normal

    Cin over 6.5 60.5%
    Clevland over 8.5 57.5%

    ACCUSCORE

    Not sure the best way to use these yet- playing just the 3 and 4 stars is too many plays-and at the same time, they use a bunch of diffference lean systems so they may rate both sides of a game as 4 stars bc of different leans....rather annoying...will have to figure out how to use- i guess their idea is for us to use their system as an aid and not as picks

    4 star:

    Seattle -163
    Mets over 8
    Giants -108


    Gil Alexander

    Detroit -135
    White Sox-125
    Padres -115
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