Haser's NFL Teaser and Prop thread

[haserfauld]

Everyone-

I don't really care about 90% of the garbage posted on here. I have a job and I do this for fun, not to get out of a hole or to make big money. I usually start the season with $1K, and try to get up to $4K to take a sweet little vacation in the spring.

I do mostly 3-team 10-point and 2-team 6- or 7-point teasers. Sometimes 2 or 3 team ML parlays. I play props as I see them. Last season, I netted enough to buy myself a new digital piano.

Most will ignore me, and that's fine. Anyone who's not on here for the board-wide dick swinging contest, you're welcome anytime in the thread. Input and ideas are appreciated.

I don't like teasing through 0, and I don't like teasing to 3, 6, or 7. I will, on occasion, do one or both.

Tail, fade, I really don't care. I just hope to make some money like last season.

-haser

[haserfauld]

Week 1:

Two plays

3-team/10pt:

Houson -3
Chi +0.5
Philly pk

1.2u to win 1u



2-team/7pt:

Eagles -2.5
Lions -2

1.3 to win 1u

[haserfauld]

1 and 1, out 0.3u.

damn that -2.

[haserfauld]

Adding AJ Green over 4.5 catches
1.4u to win 1

Also, tailing EP36 with Flacco Over 19.5 completions.

That's his play, not mine, so I'm not tracking it. But it's a good value!

[BoutDemCowboys]

Tailing A.J. Green!

[haserfauld]

Tailing A.J. Green!

Nice!

Already cashed.

That + EP36's Flacco pick made for a good night for me. At least my picks are positive now, as well.

Record now: 2-1 +0.7u

[haserfauld]

Two props for tomorrow:

Jay Cutler over 1.5 TDs (-150)
2u to win 1.3u

Loving Cutler in this position. Alex Smith torched GB's seconday in GB, I don't see how Cutler doesn't have a 2 touchdown day. Their O-line is bad, I admit, but this is Chicago's chance to show everyone they're the real deal with their new explosive offense. Green Bay will do everything they can to not open the season 0-2, which spells a shootout to me. I'd love Cutler over 2.5 TD + Int, but I don't have that line at my book.

Jordy Nelson over 72.5 REC yards (-110)
1.1u to win 1u

Even if Jennings does play, I think he'll be limited. Jordy should easily go for over 72, if my shootout theory holds true. This isn't going to be the "Randall Cobb screen pass all day long" formula. Look for rodgers to take his shots deep, and to connect with nelson for >20 and >40 at least once.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

Matt Forte OVER 3.5 Receptions (-150)
1.5u to win 1u


Forte had 3 last week despite being pulled in the 4th. Marshall is going to be the target all day long, and the pack should be focusing on beating up Cutler, because Marshall should win the battle against the DBs more often than not. GBs plan should be to not give Cutler time to set his feet and deliver to Marshall. This means lots of blitzes, and lots of check downs to Forte. 1 per quarter should be easy.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

Matt Forte OVER 3.5 Receptions (-150)
1.5u to win 1u


Forte had 3 last week despite being pulled in the 4th. Marshall is going to be the target all day long, and the pack should be focusing on beating up Cutler, because Marshall should win the battle against the DBs more often than not. GBs plan should be to not give Cutler time to set his feet and deliver to Marshall. This means lots of blitzes, and lots of check downs to Forte. 1 per quarter should be easy.

That's a winner.

[haserfauld]

Two props for tomorrow:

Jay Cutler over 1.5 TDs (-150)
2u to win 1.3u

Loving Cutler in this position. Alex Smith torched GB's seconday in GB, I don't see how Cutler doesn't have a 2 touchdown day. Their O-line is bad, I admit, but this is Chicago's chance to show everyone they're the real deal with their new explosive offense. Green Bay will do everything they can to not open the season 0-2, which spells a shootout to me. I'd love Cutler over 2.5 TD + Int, but I don't have that line at my book.

Jordy Nelson over 72.5 REC yards (-110)
1.1u to win 1u

Even if Jennings does play, I think he'll be limited. Jordy should easily go for over 72, if my shootout theory holds true. This isn't going to be the "Randall Cobb screen pass all day long" formula. Look for rodgers to take his shots deep, and to connect with nelson for >20 and >40 at least once.

1W 1L on these.

2W 1L on the night for a complete break even (including the juice)

Record is now: 4-2 +0.7u

[haserfauld]

Two Prop Bets for tomorrow:

AJ Green over 4.5 REC (-150)
3u to win 2u

This should be EASY. Last week, he had 11 targets and 5 catches in just over 3 quarters against a good defense in Baltimore on the road.

This is his home opener against Cleveland, without Joe Haden. Dalton looks his way 8-10 times tomorrow, and he should be good for 5.


Darren Sproles over 62.5 RUSH + REC Yards (-110)
1.1u to win 1u

I know he had no carries last week, and came in under this number. Sproles is capable of putting up 25 yards a touch--and he should get his touches. I think the Saints come out and put the game in Brees' hands, and Sproles is the master out of the backfield. Carolina gave up 118 rush+rec to Doug Martin. I think Sproles can get half that.

[haserfauld]

Adding:

Reggie Wayne over 6 REC (-110)
1.1u to win 1u
18 targets week 1. All I have to say. Donald Brown won't be able to run on Minny. Collie is still out. Wayne will easily get 12+ targets, and he should be able to pull in 50%. I see him pull in 6, 7, or 8 tomorrow. I wouldn't take it at 6.5, but 6 or lower I'm all over it.

2-team ML parlay:

Cincy/Pats (-210)
4.2u to win 2u
-210 is a lot of juice, admittedly. But for a two-team ML favorite parlay, I'll take it. I don't like any of the other matchups this week for ML parlays.

[Hustler11]

Very nice, I'm liking the picks. I might would've added Giants in that ml parlay though.

[haserfauld]

Very nice, I'm liking the picks. I might would've added Giants in that ml parlay though.

I do like the Giants tomorrow. That makes it a -109 play rather than a -210.

I may play that tomorrow for a unit or two, as well.

[haserfauld]

Actually, a 2-team 6-point with Giants -1 and Cincy -1 comes out to -110. Might do that, just because I'm so heavily on the pats ML already. God forbid they lose, somehow.

[Hustler11]

One of my plays for tomorrow.
10 pt teaser.
Bucs +18
Patriots -4 1/2
Bengals +2
Texans +2
49ers+3

[haserfauld]

One of my plays for tomorrow.
10 pt teaser.
Bucs +18
Patriots -4 1/2
Bengals +2
Texans +2
49ers+3

You lose a lot of value teasing through 0, especially to numbers like +2 and +3 (assuming ties push/drop out of the teaser). If the bengals lose, they'll lose by more than 2--same with the texans. Niners game could easily come down to a FG, and +3.5 is where that value is. I sometimes do tease through 0, but only when I have a very high confidence in the team winning straight up, and I just need a 2nd or 3rd team for the bet.

Pats and bengals should be okay. But 5 teams is a lot in the NFL. BOL to you, though.

Id probably split that into 2 3-teams if you want the 10, or 3 2-team 6/7 point plays.

[matt1216]

Ya it only takes 1 team to shit the bed...... im a fan of 2-3team teasers. i woul be a little scared of that Bucs +18. Im thinkin the Giants could be pissed and win this in a rout. who knows

Im liking

Pats -7/ Giants Pick/Ravens +10. I think thats a solid 3 team teaser

[haserfauld]

Let's get this!

[Hustler11]

Well the patriots screwed me. And yeah i totally get what you're saying teasing through 0 the only reason I teased those is because I wanted better odds and less juice out of my teaser. So i only did the ones i was real confident in.