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C-Gold · 09-05-12, 11:03 PM

The whole off season the ESPN hype machine talked about how RG3 closed the gap between himself and RG3. They'd post questions like, "who would you rather have". Andrew Luck is a country mile ahead of RG3. Andrew Luck would have been the #1 pick LAST year over Cam Newton and Andy Dalton and they have very good rookie years. One guy with record breaking stats and another with a solid year and a playoff birth. RG3 lacks ideal height and was being projected as a receiver even a few weeks into the last college year. The truth is that the gap between Luck and Rg3 is a lot farther than the gap between RG3 and the rest of the rookie QBs.

C-Gold · 09-06-12, 06:04 PM

MVP = Tom Brady
Rookie of the year = Andrew Luck
Defensive rokkie of the year: Luke Kuechly
Defensive player of the year = Patrick Willis
Comeback player of the year = Peyton Manning
Disappointing teams = Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit
New playoff teams = Bears, Jets, Cowboys, Chargers
Best overall record= Patriots 14-2
NFL sack leader: JPP
NFL Rushing leader: Ray Rice
NFL receiving leader: Calvin Johnson
NFL passing leader: Tom Brady
Coach of the year: Bellicheck
Fired Coach: Andy Reid
Tim Tebow's first start will be week 6
Randy Moss released by 49ers before seasons end
David Garrard ends up in Phila or Detroit
Nobody picks up Chad Johnson

C-Gold · 09-06-12, 09:51 PM

Jets go 10-6 or 11-5. The preseason has no bearing on what happens in the regular season.

tshafer117 · 09-06-12, 10:30 PM

What's your best picks for this Sunday? I'm assuming you like Denver? Let me know i like your write up, although I think that the Cowboys might win the division this year. But I am bias

C-Gold · 09-06-12, 11:06 PM

Cowboys might. Most people think it will be a 3 team race but I don't think so. It will be a Giants/Dallas race. The Cowboys offense is going to be strong this year. Murray will be a top fantasy back. Romo is quick enough to mask some of that offensive line. They have good weapons. The corner play will be better, Lee is a budding superstar and Garret will prove to be a good coach. Even after last night I still like the Giants better.

One of my first leans for this week is New Orleans -9.5.

- Overhyped rookie QB on the road.
- I heard Rg3 wasn't making decisions quick enough in practice.
- Redskins have a good front 7 but a suspect secondary. Now they just lost BOTH starting safeties. They are talking about moving D.Hall onto Jimmy Grahmn.
- Saints get a lead and blitz the rookie to death.
- Saints averaged over 30 points last year. Redskins scored 28 once (with a defensive td).
- Saints should win this game pretty comfortably by 14+.
- Where the saints have had problems is on the road on grass, this is at home.
- The saints defense isn't very good but this is by far the best defense rg3 has ever seen in his life.

tshafer117 · 09-07-12, 12:41 AM

I tend to agree with you, although I haven't bet the Saints yet. I think that the Saints have a lot to prove in week one, and the total amount of wins on the season that the casino by my house is putting for the Redskins makes me think you have the right idea. I don't think the Redskins will be any good, but I don't really want to bet against Luck or RG3 until about week 3. I think the Redskins will be lucky to score 10 points on Sunday, but I'm a little scared to pull the trigger. I just don't know enough about the Redskins defense or the Saints defense in depth to make a decision. It takes me about 2-3 weeks to really get a feel for defenses, which is my number one thing I look for in betting games. I really am an underdog guy, usually home dogs that are about +150. This week my only real leans are Arizona +130, and Buffalo +130. I know Buffalo is on the road, but I really like the offensive potential they have, and the defense is a little bit better now. Arizona also I feel is a strong play, I'm not buying into all this Seahawks hype. I know there run game will be good, but I think the game is a 50/50 toss up, which means I'll take the home underdog.

My biggest game of the week is probably Denver over Pittsburgh. I really think Manning is going to bring this team to glory, maybe not a super bowl, but if they got to the 2nd round of the playoffs last year with Tebow, Manning can only make them better.

Good luck though, I'll look forward to reading your threads. I've bet NFL the last two seasons and only hit 46 percent the first year, and 47 percent the second year, neither year had a profit. Hopefully this year will be a little better!

Stevedore · 09-07-12, 01:36 AM

Good takes but think you're off about Brady and the Pats. Brady's decline started to take shape last year as Rodgers and Brees have overtaken him. As his mobility and pocket presence start to decline because of age, Brady will have to rely even more on his O-line; problem is they're in decline too and it will be the Pats undoing this year. They'll probably make the playoffs because of the schedule, but nobody will fear them like in years past.

C-Gold · 09-07-12, 09:38 PM

TShafer:

I make the case for the Saints but there is only 1 thing that scares me. My sources tell me the plays the Redskins ran in their preseason games is nothing like they ran in practice. Apparently they ran a lot of 4 WR and plays to utilize RG3's legs but Shannihan didn't want anybody to have film of it yet. I still don't think it matters. A lot of talk about how few passes RG3 threw in preseason - he threw less than any rookie and will get a birth by fire on Sunday.

Saints get players back from bountygate. Think they will be pissed?

Redskins defense will be without both starting safeties.
Tenard Jackson was cut for drugs
Merriweather is hurt
Reed Doughty is truly awful.
The other safety is an inexperienced 2nd year player

They will have 2 inexperienced players in New Orleans against a world class offense. They say they might match up Deangelo Hall against Jimmy Grahmn.

The Redskins front 7 is good. I like their D-Line. They have 2 rushers on the outside and a tackler in the middle. Brian Orakpu is a decent player but highly overrated at this point. Kerrigan is a good outside lb and the better player. The Redskins defense will be better at home, on grass, where they can get teams into 3rd and longs. I think the Saints are a bad matchup for the run stopping Redskins. Josh Wilson is their best player in a thin secondary. I think the Saints strength exploits the Redskins weakness. Saints get a lead and then attack Rg3 and win easily.

C-Gold · 09-07-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by Stevedore

Good takes but think you're off about Brady and the Pats. Brady's decline started to take shape last year as Rodgers and Brees have overtaken him. As his mobility and pocket presence start to decline because of age, Brady will have to rely even more on his O-line; problem is they're in decline too and it will be the Pats undoing this year. They'll probably make the playoffs because of the schedule, but nobody will fear them like in years past.

Drew Brees had a down year 2 years ago. Everybody was down on him, I picked him in fantasy on the cheap. Yeah we forget about it now but he threw for 33TD and 22INT.

Losing Matt Light hurts but I think Brady works quick enough to negate that. Brandon Lloyd is exactly what that offense needs. They are literally impossible to match up with with Welker, Lloyd, Gronk and Hernandez on the field at the same time. I think they will get better RB play this year too. I like Ridley as a later round RB in fantasy.

Aaron Rodgers is the best but I see his stats taking a step back. I was on the Aaron Rodgers bandwagon early and I think he will win multiple super bowls but Brady will be the stat king this year.

C-Gold · 10-21-12, 09:51 AM

After 7 weeks here is some evaluation
NFCE: I still see the Giants winning this division, I still see Dallas coming in 2nd, I still see Vick getting hurt and Philly finishing in last. I think Andy Reid will be fired and will be the coach of the Cleveland Browns next year. RG3 I should have spoke better of. Mobile QB's always transition better into the NFL. They have higher floors and lower ceilings and never peak out as high.

NFCC: Glad I wasn't all high and mighty on the Packers. Glad I faded the Lions. Glad I was high on the bears. The Bears might actually win this division but I'm glad I said the Packers/Bears were the teams. I know some people were high on the Lions. Minnesota has a decent record at this point but I'm not buying it. Christian Ponder is playing game manager.

NFCS: Glad I picked Atlanta to win the division. Seems Crystal clear at this point. The Saints losing their head coach WAS a big loss as I noted. The only problem is that the other 2 in the division weren't that good to take advantage of it. I am glad I didn't have Cam Newton fever and pick the Panthers to make the playoffs or do anything like some people. He has regressed and is now running a college FB offense.

NFCW: I went out on a little bit of a limb and picked the Rams to finish in 2nd. I said Alex Smith still sucks. I said fade Randy Moss but I expected good things out of Vernon Davis. Right now the other 2 teams are fighting it out. Seattle's D looks good. Arizona is a surprise team.

AFCE: I stand by my pick that the Jets will finish in 2nd. I said Tebow's first start would be week 6. I still think it's coming soon. So far I am intrigued by Tannehill.

AFCN: The Ravens are the best team. Glad I said to fade Pittsburgh, I believe they are 1-4 ATS at this point. Andy Dalton has impressed me so far and the guy is underrated at this point. Cleveland sucks and Andy Reid will be their coach next year.

AFCS: It's basically the way everyone thought, Houston and everybody else. I still think the Titans are the 2nd best team in that division, Hassellback or Locker.

AFCW: Denver is the best team, glad I picked SD to finish #2 instead of the trendy Chiefs pick.

I am pretty happy with my calls so far. Pats can't go 14-2 but I think they only lose 1 or 2 more games this year. Had some close losses.

Disappointing teams = Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit <--- good calls
New playoff teams = Bears, Jets, Cowboys, Chargers <---- good calls