2012 NFL chase experiment

arpeggiomeister · 09-08-12, 11:55 AM

I just read that the line has dropped from -7 or -7.5 to 5 on the NE vs TEN game. I find this puzzling. I have been reading about fixed games and if this one goes Tennesse's way I would be very suspicious. The Patriots offensive line has some question marks. Perhaps that is the reason, but I just can't see the Titans with an inexperienced QB beating Brady with all his weapons.

The Lions also moved in favor of the Rams??? I am on both of those games. Got NE for -5 and DET at -7 but I put them in a 10 pt teaser with HOU so they are now +5 and +3. Let's see what happens.

arpeggiomeister · 09-08-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

I am running an chasing experiment. I will be paper trading. Since I am not using real money I am going to chase until I win, and then see if it was worth it afterward. I have back tested the last 5 years and the deepest I had to go was 7 tiers.

I will pick a Sunday 1:00 pm game, the Sunday 8:00 pm game, and the Monday night game. (If more then one like this week I will just pick one).

According to the sharps chasing systems do not work. It is statistically impossible. In a game where the results are purely random I would agree. However, the point spreads control the odds, and public opinion controls the point spreads. This would make the odds cyclical, not random. The more the public leans one way, the more the spread is affected until the trend breaks, thus reveresing. I call this the Pendulum Cycle because it oscillates from favorite to underdog and back like a pendulum. I haven't figured out how to turn this into a forecasting tool yet, but that is why I am doing these experiments.

Until I can produce results to the contrary, I must maintain the sharp bettors are correct. Even if I can get this to work it is far more risky then keeping your betting average above 52.4%. I explore this because I doubt my abilities to maintain such an average, and chasing can produce a profit with less then 50% as long as a losing streak does not wipe you out.

I have joined the Beat the Prick competition as well. I'm not in it because I think I am going to win. I joined because I have never tried the sharp approach before. I simply want to see how well I can do. If I can produce an average above 55% I'll be very happy.

Here are is how this chase will work. I will allow myself the freedom to choose the first game out of any of the 1:00 games. The 8:00pm game and the Monday night game will be the favorite. The thinking is that these are high profile games and the percentage between favorites and dogs winning should remain close to 50%. If there are no large losing streaks the ROI at the end of the season should be good. If I have to go deeper then 7 tiers it will not be so good.

I am compensating the 11/10 odds. $25 is one unit. I must risk $27.50 to win $25, $55 to win $50, $110 to win $100, etc.

My week one picks:

Sun 1 pm - NE @ TEN NE -5 $27.50 to win $25
Sun 8 pm - PIT @ DEN DEN -1.5
Mon - CIN @ BAL BAL -6

Let's see what happens

Should have scanned this for typos... ...yikes. So far there are no replies so I am just talking to myself. lol I will continue just so my experiments are a matter of public record. If I manage to "crack the code" I want hard evidence that the system works.

arpeggiomeister · 09-09-12, 03:25 PM

New England wins 34 to 13. Late game $27.50 on Denver. It is important to note that I would have a hard time calling this game if I wasn't playing a system. Will Peyton Manning be the the MVP caliber QB we have become accustomed to or will he be rusty? Will a new offensive scheme for the Steelers be problematic? If I were handicapping I would avoid this game.

New England was my top choice and then I second guessed myself going with Detroit for my 2 unit play in the beat the prick competition... ...bad move. That is why I look to chasing systems. I will continue to try straight up handicapping so I can compare my results to chasing.

arpeggiomeister · 09-09-12, 10:53 PM

My Beat the Prick picks had an abysmal start, but my chase is fairing well. NE wins and DEN wins. BAL bet $27.50.

rogue40 · 09-10-12, 12:32 PM

good luck with your chasing

arpeggiomeister · 09-11-12, 07:40 AM

Originally posted by rogue40

good luck with your chasing

Thanks. BAL wins. 3-3 for opening week. Much better then my 1-4 in the BTP contest.

arpeggiomeister · 09-11-12, 07:54 AM

Looking towards week 2

Early game NE -13.5 vs ARI

Late game SF -6 vs DET

Monday ATL -3 vs DEN

There are some important points to take note.

*NE is based on my personal bias. 13.5 is a lot of points to cover, but I think they can do it. That may just be a fan talking, but they looked good against TEN. ARI is coming to the east coast and playing early. I have noticed in the past that these early east coast games have been disastrous for them. I do not have the stats to back it up, just my personal observation.

*I am playing a system where I take all favorites. I have my reservations about picking ATL over DEN. I could see this going either way. If I churn out a couple of wins I may opt to sit this one out. My gut tells me DEN is the right choice here.

The reason I take all favorites is that I am trusting the point spread system to even things out. Favs should win 50% of the time and dogs should do the same. My whole purpose for this experiment is to get the system to do the work for me.

arpeggiomeister · 09-16-12, 11:47 PM

NE loses, SF wins. Up $25 this week and $100 total. I will take the Broncos +3 in tomorrow's game.

arpeggiomeister · 09-18-12, 08:56 AM

Broncos lay an egg. Should have stuck with the system. Hopefully I can recover quickly.

The late Sunday game and the Monday game are too tough to call so I will just lean on the favorites. Tough choice for the 1:00pm game though. SF is my top choice, but also like WAS @ home. CHI vs STL and BUF vs CLE also caught my eye.

arpeggiomeister · 09-20-12, 09:41 AM

Week 2 we encountered some losses and thus we get to see the corrective quality of chasing systems.

Arizona beat New England in a stunning upset. This was a loss of 27.50. We therefore increase the next bet to $55 according to the standard Martingale. This is where it is important to pay attention to the payout differential. You must risk $55 to win $50. We are attempting to win $25 with each win. However, we just lost $27.50. If we win we will recover the $27.50 we lost and profit $22.50. We must bet $57.75 to make up for the $2.50 loss.

A $2.50 loss is not a big deal, but if you continue to chase without making up for the differential then it will eat away at your profit and eventually go negative. To make up for the loss you add up your losing bets, which in this case is $27.50. Add $25 to the losing bets; $27.50 + $25 = $52.50. Finally, you multiply the total times 1.1:

$52.50 x 1.1 = $57.75. This is how much you should wager on the next chase.

The 49ers covered so we start the chase over. The account is up $125.
I went with my gut on the Broncos/Falcons and that came up short. We start week 3 with a second tier chase bet: $57.75

My picks for week 3:

1pm STL vs CHI -7 CHI
8pm NE vs BAL -3 BAL
Mon GB -3.5 vs SEA GB

My gut tells me to go with the Patriots and not the Ravens, but I did not do so well on the Broncos so I will stick with the system.

I choose all favorites because the spread should balance out the wins and losses between favorites and underdogs. As long as I do not encounter a lengthy losing streak (7 losses or more) then this will be profitable.

arpeggiomeister · 09-23-12, 07:20 PM

Won my first game. I am a Patriots fan and my real bet is on them but for this experiment I am sticking with BAL -3. $27.50 to win $25.

My eye is on the Cardinals. They were undervalued coming in. I will be interested to see what the line will be facing the Dolphins next week.

arpeggiomeister · 09-25-12, 10:12 AM

CHI game wins, followed by two losses. First bet this next week will be for $93.78.

I am looking at the Patriots to rebound against the Bills.

1 pm NE -3.5 vs BUF
8pm NYG vs PHI -1
Mon CHI vs DAL -4

I prefer NYG in the late Sunday match. I think I will swap it out for MIA vs ARI -6.5. In a non-paper treading situation you would have to watch the first game and make your decision to chase before the finish to get the 4:00 pm game. It can be done but surprises like we had in the SEA vs GB game this week can bite you.

arpeggiomeister · 09-30-12, 03:04 PM

ARI line has dropped to -4. This will be my second play for today. It appears NE has this wrapped up.

arpeggiomeister · 09-30-12, 11:42 PM

ARI misses by 1 point. NYG beats the spread by the narrowest margin possible... 1/2 point. I can't feel too bad about swapping out that game.

My beat the prick picks have been horrible, struggling just to get back to 50%, to say nothing of beating 52.4% to make a profit. This is why I am a big believer in chasing. It gives the casual sports bettor a chance to profit without being a rocket scientist. Consistently sustaining 53%+ is not accessible to the average bettor. To play with the pros takes an immense amount of skill and hard work. Most people are not capable of it. Chasing is not a perfect solution but it gives a chance to those who can only pick under 52.4% to make money they otherwise would have no hope of making.

Looking ahead to tommorrow, I have one loss in the current chase so I take the Cowboys -4 for $57.75. The NE win put me up by $150 and this DAL will be a second tier chase.

arpeggiomeister · 09-30-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

CHI game wins, followed by two losses. First bet this next week will be for $93.78.

I am looking at the Patriots to rebound against the Bills.

1 pm NE -3.5 vs BUF
8pm NYG vs PHI -1
Mon CHI vs DAL -4

I prefer NYG in the late Sunday match. I think I will swap it out for MIA vs ARI -6.5. In a non-paper treading situation you would have to watch the first game and make your decision to chase before the finish to get the 4:00 pm game. It can be done but surprises like we had in the SEA vs GB game this week can bite you.

I must correct a math error. The 3rd tier bet would need to be $121.28 to recover the losses and gain $25.

4th tier - $254.68
5th tier - $534.83

arpeggiomeister · 10-05-12, 11:49 AM

Starting this week with a 3rd tier chase. ($121.28):

1:00 pm Ravens -6

8:00 pm Saints -3.5

Mon Texans -8.5

If I were not playing a system I would dump the Saints. They have been in it in every game and maybe they can turn it around and finally win one, but their defense is abysmal and they desperately need their coach.

The Ravens should annihilate the the Chiefs, and there is no rest for the wicked in the Texans/Jets game. Jets got spanked by the 49ers, which is one of the best overall teams in football. Now the Jets face the other most balanced teams in football. Anything can and does happen, but I like these two matchups.

arpeggiomeister · 10-09-12, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Starting this week with a 3rd tier chase. ($121.28):

1:00 pm Ravens -6

8:00 pm Saints -3.5

Mon Texans -8.5

If I were not playing a system I would dump the Saints. They have been in it in every game and maybe they can turn it around and finally win one, but their defense is abysmal and they desperately need their coach.

The Ravens should annihilate the the Chiefs, and there is no rest for the wicked in the Texans/Jets game. Jets got spanked by the 49ers, which is one of the best overall teams in football. Now the Jets face the other most balanced teams in football. Anything can and does happen, but I like these two matchups.

Ravens have ugly win and do not cover. I go to a 4th tier for Saints. Saints cover. Texans win by six. Lose this bet. I will start week six in a 2nd tier chase

arpeggiomeister · 10-10-12, 11:45 AM

Week 6 pix:

I do not like the Monday Night Chargers as Favorites. I am leaning on the Broncos for that game. In order to stay with the favorites and try and be somewhat consistent I will swap that game out for the Steelers vs Titans. I picked this game up for -5. I see the line has moved to -5.5. In my unprofessional opinion I believe the Steelers are grossly undervalued in this game. I would not be surprised if they win this game by 2 touchdowns or better.

Thursday:

PIT -5 vs TEN PIT

Sunday:

1:00pm

STL vs MIA -3 MIA

8:00 pm

GB vs HOU -4.5 HOU

I have started conducting a chase experiment with 10 point teasers as well. I won my first two but I am reluctant to start posting them until I see if I can produce some consistency, or if I just have beginner's luck.

arpeggiomeister · 10-17-12, 11:00 AM

Week 7

NO -3 vs TB
PIT -1 vs CIN
DET vs CHI -6

Rough week last week. Only 3 favorites covered. Let's see what happens this week.

arpeggiomeister · 10-21-12, 08:36 AM

I have been experimenting with a 10 point teaser chase system. So far the results are impressive. I have started backtesting it and the process is really tedious, but it worked really well in the beginning of 2011 and then fizzled out at the end. The start of this year looks to be stronger then last year. Only one loss.

I will start releasing teaser picks as well.

NO +9 vs TB
NE -0.5 vs NYJ
CLE vs IND +7

The filters I am using do offer picks that would oppose the public, but there were so many teams that fit the criteria this week that I got all the square picks this week.

arpeggiomeister · 10-25-12, 08:33 AM

Week 8 already. How time flies. Favorites bring home the bacon in week 7. I went 3-0 and I hit on my teaser play.

This week I am taking

NE vs STL NE -8
DEN vs NO DEN -5
SF vs ARI SF -7.5

7 is such a critical number that I would consider buying half a point on SF. It could be the difference between a push and a loss.

For my 10 point teaser I am taking

NE vs STL NE +2
SF vs ARI SF +2.5
SD vs CLE SD +7.5

I was seriously considering GB for the 3rd slot because I think they will hammer JAC, but irt doesn't fit my system. I am looking for elite teams coming off a loss ATS. This year is a bit tough because the elite teams do not look quite so dominant, and there are other teams that seem to be on the rise. There are other filters to consider, but that is the main one.

arpeggiomeister · 10-30-12, 11:59 PM

Week 8 was good to me. I hit all three of my standard chase picks as well as my 10 point teaser.

This week I am looking at

DEN vs CIN DEN -3.5
DAL vs ATL ATL -4
PHI vs NO NO -3

For my 10 point teaser I was looking at HOU, GB and NO. They fit the criteria I am looking for, but I do not trust NO enough at this point to put my faith into them. Denver won ATS last week, which does not fit my criteria, but I think Peyton Manning is back and that DEN is a serious contender. I am putting DEN in place of NO in the teaser:

ARI vs GB GB -1
BUF vs HOU HOU -0.5
DEN vs CIN DEN +6.5

arpeggiomeister · 11-04-12, 08:56 PM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Thanks. BAL wins. 3-3 for opening week. Much better then my 1-4 in the BTP contest.

That should say 3-0. I don't need any help in the loss department. lol

arpeggiomeister · 11-07-12, 02:04 PM

I hit all my picks in week 9. The 10 point teaser has become my primary tool after much backtesting.
My teaser pick for this week are

BUF vs NE NE-1
DEN vs CAR DEN+6.5
STL vs SF SF-1

My straight picks are
BUF vs NE NE-11
HOU vs CHI CHI-1
KC vs PIT PIT-12.5

I am playing a system with these straight bets, but I would actually steer clear of them with real money on the line. They may all cover, but you are asking a lot of points of PIT and NE. They are both capable but I am leary of games where the spread is over 10. The difference between favorites and underdogs is much smaller then most people think. I think Houston has a very good chance of beating Chicago straight up. I am only on these games because the system plays strictly favorites or strictly underdogs, and expects the spread to balance things out in the end.
My teaser system is far more refined. The straight bets was my first version for the Pendulum Cycle Theory. The teaser system is the next step, where I begin to forecast results instead of just hoping the spread will balance things out. So far it has worked very well.

arpeggiomeister · 11-13-12, 01:04 PM

The pendulum made a swing on me. My gut told me that the Week 10 straight picks would not cover, and I said as much. My teaser pick lost but came very close to covering. It all came down to a field goal for SF in OT. David Akers missed. Missed the teaser by one point.
This week was a tough one to choose. 2 of my stongest indicators are on teams going into their bye week so I must scrap them. My system picks mostly favorites to put into a 10 point teaser.

I narrowed my choices down to 5 games. Of these 5 I had 2 that are surpising. I did not go with them, but thought they were wirth mentioning. My teaser system picks primarily favorites. There are rare occasions when there are indicators that pick the underdogs. I have not one, but two this week: The Jets and the Dolphins.

I have a list of teams to fade when they win ATS. The idea is that they will return to playing poorly as everyone would expect them too. The Bills and Rams are two teams on that list. Miami was on that list but I pulled them off when I saw them performing well. I feel the Rams are due to break out at any time. In a 10 point teaser I would take the Dolphins over the bills at +10, and the Jets over the Rams at +13. The problem is that I do not trust either team to get the job done, especially on the road. I thought it was worth mentioning because if it were teams like the Vikings or the Bengals I would be on these games. The Dolphins were on my list as cellar dwellars but I pulled them off it after they surprised me. The Jets are well on their way to making that list.

My Teaser Picks are
IND vs NE NE +1
GB vs DET GB +7
ARI vs ATL ATL pk

My straight pick is
GB -3 vs DET

The Sunday night game and Monday Night game are both not on the boards, at least in my book. I will update once they appear.
My gut says to take Baltimore, and I have no opinion on SF vs CHI. Both QBs suffered concussions. If Jay Cutler is out than things have changed significantly for the Bears. Alex Smith looks hopeful to be back in according to early reports from the coaching staff. These are significant losses for both teams and I would not touch either team without more information. Apparently Las Vegas agrees with me, which is why the game is not on the boards.

arpeggiomeister · 11-20-12, 10:16 AM

I just realized that I never came back to update my straight picks. for last week. Well the one pick I gave covered, GB -3. The teaser wins. Looking towards this week.
Many of my system plays are in situations that I do not trust. I should take the Giants coming off the bye week, but they are facing the Packers so I will not touch it. Cleveland is not on the board and neither is Chicago.
I am going a little outside the box to make teaser a play for this week. BetDSI allows me to take 10 points on one total in a 10 point teaser so I am looking at the NE vs NYJ game for this.
It is interesting to note the Jets vs Rams system play that I was afraid to touch did cover.

10 point teaser

DEN vs KC DEN +0.5
ATL vs TB ATL +10
NE vs NYJ o 38.5

Straight bets

Early
OAK vs CIN CIN-8

Late
GB vs NYG NYG-1

Monday Night
not on the boards yet so I will take a thursday game

Hou vs DET HOU -3

Since this is a paper trade I include the GB vs NYG game but if my money were on the line I would not touch this thing.

arpeggiomeister · 11-27-12, 02:04 PM

Week 12 was a good week. My teaser covered. Houston pushed, and the Bengals and Giants both covered.

On to week 13. My teasers have been doing so well that the straight chase picks are more of an after thought at this point.

My teaser for this week is:

NE vs MIA NE +3
MIN vs GB Over 36.5
TB vs DEN DEN +3

My straight picks are

SF - 7 vs STL
PHI vs DAL -9
NYG -2.5 vs WAS

My chase has been successful. My goal is to gain 30% for the season. I have already done that. I will continue to post to finish out the season and see how well the system works. My teasers have done well enough that I did not even need a chase system, but my backstudies have shown that is not always the case. 2009 was a rough year but by using a chase system and getting out at 30% it was still a successful year.

arpeggiomeister · 12-04-12, 12:06 PM

My teaser covers for week 13 and my straight picks all tank. I am very pleased with the results of the teaser system. I have backtested it for 10 years and have made 30% for each of those years. One of my rules is to exit once you make 30%. This leaves a lot of money on the table for most years, but protects you from losing streaks that could wipe out your bankroll otherwise. There were 2 years in my backtests where this rule turned what would have been a losing year into a winning one; 2009 and 2011.

On the other hand. The system has been working so well that no chasing system would be necessary for most years. 2003 was a perfect season and 2005 had only one loss. We are in week 13 and I am 9-3 on the season.

There are no system plays this week. It is a unique situation. The cellar dwellars that won ATS are facing each other. STL vs BUF and KC vs CLE. That eliminates 4 teams that would have been system plays otherwise. Then I have HOU vs NE. NE just pushed which means it qualifies but they are facing another top team. I am not ready to call Houston an elite team, but the Patriots have got some holes of their own. I am avoiding this one.

Here are the matchups I like for a teaser this week, but only one actually fits the system I am using: MIA vs SF

MIA vs SF SF pk
ATL vs CAR ATL +7
DEN vs OAK DEN -0.5

My straight picks are

Den vs Oak Den -10.5
Atl vs Car ATL -3
Det vs GB GB -6.5

I have made my 30% for the season and have moved to the NBA. I will continue to post to finish out the season and see how well the system performs.

arpeggiomeister · 12-09-12, 04:04 PM

Falcons are tanking. The beauty of chasing is that you can jump in when something is going bad and use some of the ideas and combine with new ones.
I am chasing my teaser with another one
MIA vs SF SF -0.5
ARI vs SEA SEApk
SF over 28

arpeggiomeister · 12-12-12, 11:58 AM

My week 14 teaser lost. My last minute teaser covered. My straight picks had a win, a loss, and finished with a win. Good week over all.
I am doing something a little different this week. I have gone beyond my goal of 26% so I am taking some of the “house money” and taking a shot. This is a key principle to something I call the Hybrid Martingale System. The goal is to boost your ROI without risking your seed capital.

I am on a 3 team parlay this week instead of a 10 point teaser. You could tease this play and reduce your risk. You should only do this once you have several wins under your belt, and if you lose do not give chase.

DET -6 vs ARI
PIT -2 vs DAL
SF vs NE -5

My straight picks are

TB vs NO -3.5
SF vs NE -5
NYJ vs TEN -2

arpeggiomeister · 12-19-12, 12:24 PM

Week 16 picks

Posted on December 19, 2012 by Arpeggiomeister
I took a shot and got beat badly last week. My Parlay tanked on all 3 games. Thank God for chasing systems. I will attempt to make it back this week with the following 10 point teaser:

TEN vs GB GB -2.5
CIN vs PIT PIT +6
NE vs JAC NE -4.5

My individual teams faired better this week. Lost the middle game but won the early and late games. Here are my picks for this week.

Thursday

ATL vs DET ATL -3.5

Sunday

WAS vs PHI WAS -4

Monday

SD vs NYJ SD +2.5

I am going with the underdog on this one because the Chargers are a good team playing badly, while the Jets are just a bad team. The Jets have officially made my Cellar Dwellar list and the Panthers have temprorarily made their way off that list. I expect SD to play hard in this one. People are fighting to save their jobs. Perhaps the same could be said for the Jets, but the Chargers have more talent and a better QB.

arpeggiomeister · 12-26-12, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Week 16 picks

Posted on December 19, 2012 by Arpeggiomeister
I took a shot and got beat badly last week. My Parlay tanked on all 3 games. Thank God for chasing systems. I will attempt to make it back this week with the following 10 point teaser:

TEN vs GB GB -2.5
CIN vs PIT PIT +6
NE vs JAC NE -4.5

My individual teams faired better this week. Lost the middle game but won the early and late games. Here are my picks for this week.

Thursday

ATL vs DET ATL -3.5

Sunday

WAS vs PHI WAS -4

Monday

SD vs NYJ SD +2.5

I am going with the underdog on this one because the Chargers are a good team playing badly, while the Jets are just a bad team. The Jets have officially made my Cellar Dwellar list and the Panthers have temprorarily made their way off that list. I expect SD to play hard in this one. People are fighting to save their jobs. Perhaps the same could be said for the Jets, but the Chargers have more talent and a better QB.

I pulled the trigger too quickly on this and made drastic errors on my dates. I looked at the order of the games and not the dates themselves. There were no Thursday night games or Monday Night. The Atlanta game was on Saturday, and the Chargers were on Sunday (not sure how I got that one in a monday spot for the last game was SF vs SEA, some mysteries aren't meant to be solved I guess)

Although both my Washington pick and Sandiego covered I can only accept one of them for a chase system. I have two wins for week 16, not 3. Perhaps I'll check the schedule a little closer on holiday weekends for the next time. lol

arpeggiomeister · 12-27-12, 11:39 AM

Week 17

Hard to believe the final week of the NFL regular season is upon us. All of my week 16 picks covered, including my blooper that I had originally published as a Monday Night game and there were no Monday Night games last week. Yes I am human. lol

Looking to this week has been tough. For my 10 point teaser I have two plays that stand out, two system plays that I do not trust, and another that is not on the boards at BETdsi yet. I am thinking that I will play a total for my third pick.

10 pt teaser:

MIA vs NE NE pk
STL vs SEA SEA -0.5
CAR vs NO over 44

For my straight picks my goal is to end with a win. If my first pick wins then the season is over. If it loses I will chase into my second pick. If the second pick loses I will go into the playoffs and try to chase a win. One more win and the season is done.

Straight picks:

CAR vs NO NO -5
DAL vs WAS WAS-3