WHOLE BANKROLL ml parlay

[hitman09]

look solid, double bank roll tomorrow.

[adila1401]

The thing is sports aren't poker, and good cards don't always win.

Where is it that you play poker where good cards always win?

[tshafer117]

Was trying to make a point, I know good cards don't always win. More of a figure of speech that didn't really make sense

[bulichm]

tshafer117, The reason I refered to poker is that it took me a long time to really know how to play my hands. A friend showed me how to be patient and wait for good hands to make the money, so even if the cards are not in your favor on a certian day you will lose less or make only marginal gains.

Raw stats show that teams that are favs of 7-10 win 74% of the time historically. But when you break it down in view of recent yrs the HOME team wins over 80% of these games. It is very rare to see team that finished very poorly play good teams the next year with these large point spreads. Rare hand indeed!

[tad0matic]

I like it! hell we're all basically shottakers anyway, if you see a good opportunity early take the shot. Most degens wait until they've whittled down there roll week after week and then take the shot. I'm going to lay 1k points on it just to lend support and +rep for putting your nuts on the line week 1.

[bulichm]

tadumatic, thanks for your support.

[bulichm]

WOW!!!!!!!!!!! talk about close.

[MexicanStallion]

Congrats. Nice start you have.

[arpeggiomeister]

Nice play.

[DOM-Ganador]

CUDOS.BUT, what is your objective if you bet "bankroll" 1st game.
Take the win. Long term (17 weeks?) this strategy is a loser.
We all want to be alive for the SB, no?

[bulichm]

CUDOS.BUT, what is your objective if you bet "bankroll" 1st game.
Take the win. Long term (17 weeks?) this strategy is a loser.
We all want to be alive for the SB, no?

In post #15 I do lay out a breif overview of MM system along with my thoughts on the games, with the top two going down the way I wrote them up. I should have played the first two only and heeded my own advice on DET. Otherwise I'm happy with the results and plan on posting more plays in the future with more proper MM.

[bulichm]

I do have an objective and a goal. The goal is to reach $2,000. by seasons end. The object is to do it outside of the ridgid money management system that was not intended for small BR people such as my self. And what I mean by this is that you can go any where and find MM info the problem for me is the lack of satisfaction in the gains with a small BR vs the effort put in to succeed. I have read that using all of the MM skills of pro handicappers of %'s to wager vs the expected overall win rate of a season of wagering that a 20% increase of your BR would have you on the right track. Will finish this later.

[SportsTerminator]

Nice hit, but upsets do happen... I know you were biting your nails in the first half.

[bulichm]

Nice hit, but upsets do happen... I know you were biting your nails in the first half.

Got that right. But now I don't need to clip them. just a little filing.

[bulichm]

Thanks Zola.

[hitman09]

what's your thoughts on second week ? Any ML parlay like this ? If you do, you will reach your goals in the first half of the season.

[bulichm]

what's your thoughts on second week ? Any ML parlay like this ? If you do, you will reach your goals in the first half of the season.

I will not be rolling my whole BR for sure this week. Being a little over $700.00 right now would require an average of $80.00/week increase to reach the $2,000.00 goal. That would call for some aggressive wagering of some sort for sure.
I did play a small teaser for the week already. The play is an 6tm/11pt ties push $28.00 pays $60.00, and the teams are BAL+3(this was mon night fb),GB +5 1/2, NYG +2,NE -4,HOU +2 1/2,and SF +4. MY top 3 leans right now for the week are NE,HOU,SF(ml) followed by NYG,DAL,CIN(ml). After I look them over a little closer I'll write up my favs with ATS leans like the ones for week 1 (post #15). Also I will not make any large bets till I do my write ups, because I questioned my own reasoning afterwards. I was really confident that CHI and HOU would easily cover the spread, which would have made a nice 2tm ATS parlay and not have to risk as much money.

[bulichm]

There is an angle that I plan on following this season,which makes me think that I should have taken CHI instead of GB in my teaser. I have 3 people whom I bounce ideas off during the week, people who are willing to challenge my thoughts and ideas about the outcome of games. Well one of them reminded me of a scenario about teams who played PIT had a low ATS record the following week. I don't know the actual time period that this covers, but I did recall having heard it somewhere else as well. The reasoning was that their opposing team was taking more time to recover from the physical beating and could not preform at their max level the following week. So I checked into SF's games from last year just to find that teams that played them covered the spread only 36% of the time the following week. So my thinking is this is worth watching this season.

[arpeggiomeister]

I do have an objective and a goal. The goal is to reach $2,000. by seasons end. The object is to do it outside of the ridgid money management system that was not intended for small BR people such as my self. And what I mean by this is that you can go any where and find MM info the problem for me is the lack of satisfaction in the gains with a small BR vs the effort put in to succeed. I have read that using all of the MM skills of pro handicappers of %'s to wager vs the expected overall win rate of a season of wagering that a 20% increase of your BR would have you on the right track. Will finish this later.

I definately hear ya about ROI on a small BR. I know going all in draws a lot of criticism but the flipside is if you do not have a lot than you do not have a lot to lose. I made $18,000 my first season by being aggressive. It was all balls, no brains, and a lot of luck. I have never been able to recapture that magic since.

You had a plan and you executed. Good job!! I'll keep checking in to see how you do. Nice hit.

[bulichm]

arpeggiomeister, Thanks, I hope to have th same fortunes as yourself. And lets do a double dose on the luck.

[bulichm]

There are 3 teams this week that people are saying there is no way they lose 2 in a row, GB, NYG, PIT. They are all at home this week.
I have CHI tied up in some teasers this week, My overall feeling is that they stand a chance to win SU, a very good chance to win ATS and if they lose it should be less than 10 pts. Therfore they are in 3 different Teasers of 10 pts or more.

[bulichm]

I am going to post the remainder of the teaser bets when I get time.

[bulichm]

2 teasers 1 parlay

13 1/2pt 7tms- CHI +18 1/2 (win), NE -1 1/2, BAL+14 1/2, CIN+6, HOU+5 1/2, SF+5 1/2,DEN+16 1/2 $28/$40

11pt 6tm- BAL+3 (win), GB+5 1/2 (win), NYG+2, NE-4, HOU+2 1/2, SF+4 $28/$60

5 tm parlay NYG ml, NE -13 1/2, HOU ml, DAL+3 1/2, SF-6 1/2


Crunched for time, Hope all of you do well today.

[eddie1086]

You can definitely do it dude. Just keep taking big calculated risks i play almost the same bought in 400 and cashed out over 2000 last 2 seasons with 20 percent br bets per play already at 1400 this year and getting the 100 percent bonus each year helps also . Rollovers arent shit if you bet smart

[eddie1086]

Also helps that you wont lose much like the bigger bankrolls if you take a hit

[hitman09]

best of luck today man. 90% you hit that 13 pts teaser.

[bulichm]

Darn those Patriots. They fooled me with their good showing vs TEN.

[hitman09]

Dont' worry , you would bet it back this week even though I think this week is a tough week, at least tougher than week 2 imo.