2012 NFL System - JM and Modified

[bisturis]

Looks great On3!

[catt0025]

Add Cincinnati and Oakland to the potential week 4 play list

[SportsTerminator]

The Seahawks haven't proved anything yet! Dallas picked apart the Champs! That defense was great! Dallas is the play.

[dominate.]

checking in

[sportscreep1]

on3,
are you going to be posting the round robin bets here too?

[on3]

The Seahawks haven't proved anything yet! Dallas picked apart the Champs! That defense was great! Dallas is the play.

Please dont say 'Team X is the play" in this thread unless it is an official play of the system that has been posted by me. People are confused easily when they skim a thread and see someone post a play. I'd hate to see someone place a bet under the impression that is an official play when it is not. Thank you.

[on3]

on3,
are you going to be posting the round robin bets here too?

No. This thread is for the JM system and the Modified JM system only. The round robin doesnt take much effort at all. On Sunday morning, check the lines, anything that is +1.5 to +2.5 and -7.5 to -8.5, throw in a 6 point teaser round robin and boom, youre done.

[on3]

while we are waiting around, ive been keeping an eye out for a system that a few friends of mine use. i havent backtested it myself, but i take it on good faith that they are not misleading me of the success rate being around 66%.

the record of it so far this year is 7-1, and is not a chase system, but a half time 'middling' system, in which it fades the middle opportunity that half time lines provide. the line has to have a 13 point middle or more for it to be eligible.

example: yesterdays TNF game bears/packers o/u of 51 spread of -5. half time score was 13-0 packers. if the line stayed true, we would see a half time o/u of 38 and bears favored by -8. the line was o/u of 24 and packers -1.5. the o/u has a 14 point middle (eligible for a play) and the spread has a 9.5 middle (not eligible). since we fade the middle (saying that the middle WILL NOT occur) we take UNDER 24 as our half time bet.

i will not be tracking this, but i thought some of you might find it helpful.

[DustyDiamond]

If I'm reading into his round robin correctly, it looks like NY Giants, MIA, HOU, and CIN for a round robin based on the SBR lines

[Sandwich]

Hey On3, I'm trying to grasp the "middling" concept. Would you mind providing a few more examples? Trying to understand what makes a half time play eligible or not, thanks so much for the hard work on the threads.

I guess the question is, once you find the middle points, such as 14 for the o/u. What are you comparing that number to, in order to determine the eligibility?

[on3]

few more examples:

denver/pitt game: original line DEN -2.5 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 10-7 Steelers leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: DEN -5.5 o/u 28.5
actual halftime line: DEN PK and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Steelers -3 to Den -2.5 ONLY 5.5 diff. the o/u middle is now 38.5 to 45.5 ONLY 7 diff.).

differential for spread is 5.5 and differential for o/u is 7. both are not eligible and no play is made.

carolina/tampa bay game: original line CAR -3 o/u 45.5
halftime score: 13-0 Bucs leading
if line holds true, halftime line should be: CAR -16 o/u 32.5
actual halftime line: CAR -3 and o/u 21.5 (this means the spread middle is now Bucs -10 to Car -3, 13pt diff. the o/u middle is now 34.5 to 45.5, 11pt diff.).

the system is saying that this middle WILL NOT occur, and the only way for that to happen is if the Bucs cover the +3 in the 2h.

differential for spread is 13 and differential for o/u is 11. spread is eligible, o/u is not and one play is made. the play was Bucs +3 2h (this play was the only loser last week using the system).

System went 6-1 in week 1. and 1-0 on the Thursday night game.

[on3]

If I'm reading into his round robin correctly, it looks like NY Giants, MIA, HOU, and CIN for a round robin based on the SBR lines

just remember that the 6 point tease percentages i stated before are on closing lines, so it benefits you to wait until 5-10 before kick off before you make plays. as of now, HOU is not a play (-6.5) and CIN at (-7) isnt either. only NY Giants, MIA, and possibly IND if it stays at +2.5.

[on3]

2h middle system: Buffalo +.5 at half -- loser, tampa/NY over 21.5 -- winner

All 6 point RR teasers covered in the morning.

[catt0025]

So just to make sure I get the 'middling' concept as well, the skins/rams game 2h play should be the Under...?

(37 1st half pts, 43 ending line on my site, o/u should be 6. actual line 21.5 meaning under should be played...)

[J.M. Disciple]

One question about the actual system for this thread. I seen a post that said the system was 15-6. Was that a 6 (3-game chase losses)? or was it 15-6 record ATS?

[on3]

So just to make sure I get the 'middling' concept as well, the skins/rams game 2h play should be the Under...?

(37 1st half pts, 43 ending line on my site, o/u should be 6. actual line 21.5 meaning under should be played...)

i will only be addressing questions about the middling strategy this week. from then on it will be 100% JM system. i apologize for the clutter.

1st half 37, full game 43. half time is 21.5, that means the range is 43 (original) to 58.5 (new). 43 to 58.5 is the range and we are betting the total will NOT fall in this middle. the only way this does not fall fall in the middle is if they score MORE than 21.5, right? so the play was the OVER 21.5 (which was a winner btw).

sorry if you played the wrong side, but i hope you understand the concept now.

[on3]

One question about the actual system for this thread. I seen a post that said the system was 15-6. Was that a 6 (3-game chase losses)? or was it 15-6 record ATS?

1st post has the record as 15-4. that is 4 (C) bet losses on a 3 game chase.

[on3]

one more week...

system record: 0-0
mod system record: 0-0
units: +0

week 4 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

tenn
oakland
new orleans
kansas city

week 5 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

chicago
new england
minnesota
jacksonville
dallas
washington
ny jets
detroit

[catt0025]

Thanks for the explanation on the middling concept, won't have to ask again! Look forward to getting to week 4!

[jonesin]

Did that middling system this past weekend and got killed more losers than winners.

[jmaldonado]

Did that middling system this past weekend and got killed more losers than winners.

Has anyone backtested (or have the ability/idea on how to) the middling system? I am curious on how it has done season to date and prior years but am not sure on how to easily backtest it.

Should we start a thread to track this?

[Sandwich]

I'll start a new thread called "NFL Half Time Middling System" and we can move the discussion there instead of clogging up this thread. I wouldn't mind if we tracked it for the season officially and see how it performed. I'm not the most consistent poster, so if anyone wants to take on the task of tracking, they are more than welcome to.

[imotiv8]

I'll start a new thread called "NFL Half Time Middling System" and we can move the discussion there instead of clogging up this thread. I wouldn't mind if we tracked it for the season officially and see how it performed. I'm not the most consistent poster, so if anyone wants to take on the task of tracking, they are more than welcome to.

Awesome.. Please post a link to thread

[on3]

Did that middling system this past weekend and got killed more losers than winners.

how? there were like 3 plays? Buffalo +.5 (loser), NYG/TB over 21.5 (winner), STL/WASH over 22 (push).

[Sandwich]

Link to the middling system thread.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-betting/1906204-nfl-halftime-middling-system.html

[alexknyc]

how? there were like 3 plays? Buffalo +.5 (loser), NYG/TB over 21.5 (winner), STL/WASH over 22 (push).

Because the OP doesn't understand the system any more than I do.

The difference is I'm not betting it because I don't get it. He seems to betting despite not getting it.

[uup115]

On3, Denver is an add to week 5 potential?

[JP Varick]

Checking In, long time JM follower (with mods of course) and I'll be following the rest of the year.

[LVwinter]

These potential plays are only system plays, correct? They don't qualify for modified plays as the teams would be less than .500. Am I understanding this correctly? Sorry I'm new to this system.

[on3]

These potential plays are only system plays, correct? They don't qualify for modified plays as the teams would be less than .500. Am I understanding this correctly? Sorry I'm new to this system.

plays will be tagged (JM) or (Mod) to indicate which plays are which.

[cmdyrds]

currently on the hook i believe

saints
chiefs
raiders
titians

[GGPLAYER]

currently on the hook i believe

saints
chiefs
raiders
titians

That's what I have. KC/NO game today. We need KC to win or NO to win and cover the big number.

[on3]

we will usually see a 50% conversion rate from potential plays to actual plays when we are one week away. im putting some change on TEN ML at +175 and OAK at +165. just need one of two to hit.

[Brundle99]

Checking in

[on3]

we have our first official play with NO (next three are @GB, SD, bye, @TB). pending is OAK. will update Monday evening.

im hoping GB blows out SEA so we get a 10+ line next week for NO @GB.