2012 NFL System - JM and Modified

**on3** · 08-14-12, 06:42 PM

while the first system play doesnt come until week 4 at a minimum, there is a play for week 1, and that is fading the previous SB champ on a 3 game chase.

Week 1 -- Dallas +3.5 (A)

**bisturis** · 08-15-12, 12:24 AM

Thanks On3! Can't wait to get this started!

**DustyDiamond** · 08-15-12, 05:56 AM

Checking in

**hagball52** · 08-15-12, 09:16 AM

Me too. Thanks On3 for putting this together.

**doin** · 08-15-12, 01:09 PM

def need this bookmarked. appreciation

**ChiLLx** · 08-15-12, 03:31 PM

What is the backtest for fading the defending SB champ just curious

**hagball52** · 08-15-12, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by ChiLLx

What is the backtest for fading the defending SB champ just curious

Never lost in 89 years Morrison says. Check it out.

http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/087998

**xgame** · 08-16-12, 02:07 AM

Originally posted by hagball52

Never lost in 89 years Morrison says. Check it out.

http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/087998

last year got killed choke bro....

**Winning oasis** · 08-16-12, 02:06 PM

This is where you wager against the SB Champs to cover and increase the bet if it loses the start of the season. I think it went 3 weeks until it covered last year. Right?

**aznknightt** · 08-19-12, 12:38 AM

Green bay was the fade last year. They did not cover against Carolina in week 2. I remember cuz I played it

**bisturis** · 08-21-12, 10:47 PM

Are you guys putting your bet in now for the Cowboys at +3.5 or are you going to wait closer to game day to see if the line moves any? Since there are a few injuries pending so far.

**UnderDog_Philip** · 08-22-12, 01:33 AM

I'll be following this system play, gl.

**arpeggiomeister** · 08-23-12, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by on3

here is the thread that i ran last year: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-modified.html

2011 records: JM = 15-4 for -21 units and Modified +.500 = 15-2 for +6 units

This is a 3 game chase, in which you TAIL the team who has lost 3 games SU and ATS in a row, in hopes that they will cover 1 in 6 games. Games are A, B, C format and a win at any level of A, B, or C counts as a series win.

The Modified +.500 system is 3-game chasing teams who are at or above .500 after they lose 2 games SU and ATS.

Only difference this year is that I wont be running the labby in thread. It becomes cluttered and it seems it doesnt benefit too many people. So in the interest of keeping things clean, I will be posting the plays and keeping track of the records.

Cheers to a good season everyone!

Very interesting thread. I have been studying chase systems and this is similar to what is called the "Gland Martingale", typically used on roulette. You would wait for say black to show up 5 times in a row. You then start betting red with a chase system in hopes that red comes up before you lose.

The colts were a disaster last year. I will have to go check and see if this system worked with them.

I'll be interested to see how this plays out.

**analyzer** · 08-30-12, 07:29 AM

Looking forward to it!

**Snoopdonk** · 08-30-12, 10:00 AM

The defending Super Bowl Champ New England Patriots did not lose against the spread until week 8 in the 2004-2005 season. FYI

**on3** · 08-30-12, 11:27 AM

Originally posted by Snoopdonk

The defending Super Bowl Champ New England Patriots did not lose against the spread until week 8 in the 2004-2005 season. FYI

they lost/pushed the spread on week 1 depending on the closing line of +3.5/+3 that season (which would have negated the 3-game chase). same thing happened in week 5. they also lost straight up during week 6 as 3 point faves.

in any case, i would recommend buying a half point on key numbers (3, 7, 10) to prevent being moosed on NFL chases. not sure what the letter of the law says about how NWE in 2005 was graded (assuming it was cancelled/no action after week 1), but to say that they didnt lose ATS until week 8 is simply wrong.

**on3** · 08-30-12, 11:42 AM

for those that are fans of 'no capping' systems, here is one that yields +EV year after year and went 64-32 last year. when only playing home teams, the ROI is over 10%:

round robin 2-team tease any and all teams that fall within +1.5 to +2.5 dogs or -7.5 to -8.5 faves. for example, week 1 plays would be PHI (-7.5), DET (-.7.5), KC (+2), TB (+2), ARI (+2.5), OAK (+1.5). for week 1, that is 15 bets total when you round robin 2-team them.

A B C D

Through 3 & 7	889-316-7	53.8	2.71%
Home and through 3 & 7	500-152-5	57.9	10.57%

**the records are for individual teams, you must square the win percentage to get the success rate shown in column C.

**imotiv8** · 09-02-12, 03:51 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-football-betting/1878060-jm-like-college-football-system-2012-a.html

JM LIKE COLLEGE FOOTBALL SYSTEM

**DustyDiamond** · 09-03-12, 10:50 AM

Sorry for the noob question, can you explain the round robin 2-team concept?

Originally posted by on3

for those that are fans of 'no capping' systems, here is one that yields +EV year after year and went 64-32 last year. when only playing home teams, the ROI is over 10%:

round robin 2-team tease any and all teams that fall within +1.5 to +2.5 dogs or -7.5 to -8.5 faves. for example, week 1 plays would be PHI (-7.5), DET (-.7.5), KC (+2), TB (+2), ARI (+2.5), OAK (+1.5). for week 1, that is 15 bets total when you round robin 2-team them.

A B C D

Through 3 & 7	889-316-7	53.8	2.71%
Home and through 3 & 7	500-152-5	57.9	10.57%

**the records are for individual teams, you must square the win percentage to get the success rate shown in column C.

**DustyDiamond** · 09-03-12, 10:51 AM

Dallas is now +4. Should we wait or go for it now?

**on3** · 09-03-12, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

Sorry for the noob question, can you explain the round robin 2-team concept?

lets say you have 3 teams you want to bet on, team A, B, and C. instead of doing a 3-team parlay as A/B/C, you can round robin them and split them into three 2-team parlays and do A/B, A/C, C/B. so if a team loses in this parlay, you still hit one of your three bets. most online books will do this for you automatically if you select the round robin option.

**DIRTYDIRTY** · 09-03-12, 03:08 PM

im down lets get it thanx 3

**bisturis** · 09-05-12, 07:23 AM

Dang it! The line moved to 3.5 and I didn't put my bet in when it was 4!

**bisturis** · 09-05-12, 09:20 PM

Yeah buddy!! Looking GREAT so far guys!! Let's do this!

**delbiand** · 09-06-12, 12:47 AM

Dallas

**on3** · 09-06-12, 11:55 AM

Week 1 -- Dallas +3.5 (A) WIN

The next update will be AFTER week 2 about teams eligible for week 4 plays.

**J.M. Disciple** · 09-06-12, 05:40 PM

On3

Do you mind posting the plays as well as units next to them for people? I know you are running the labby on the side from what I read, but you could simply round the unit size to nearest 1/2 unit so people can just follow the unit sizes.

**GGPLAYER** · 09-07-12, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by aznknightt

Green bay was the fade last year. They did not cover against Carolina in week 2. I remember cuz I played it

Me too....this bet always hits!

**TwoCats** · 09-08-12, 12:20 AM

Did anybody actually get an email from JM telling you what the (Dallas) bet was?

I purchased his NFL system last year (before I found this forum) but have only got the usual bullshit email to buy the system.

**catt0025** · 09-08-12, 01:03 PM

With the Modified +.500 system... technically won't be able to get started until week 6 right? Any team through 5 games would have to be 3-2 and have lost SU and ATS last 2 games coming into week 6; if I'm understanding the system correctly? Let me know if I'm thinking right here, looks awesome though, can't wait to get going!

**on3** · 09-08-12, 01:35 PM

modified is .500 or better. potential action in week 5 if team starts 2-0 and then goes 0-2.

**catt0025** · 09-08-12, 02:30 PM

Sounds good, thanks for the clarification.

**on3** · 09-10-12, 02:06 PM

just because im impatient and want to post something...

system record: 0-0
mod system record: 0-0
units: +0

week 4 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

ny giants
indianapolis
buffalo
miami
tenn
new orleans
kansas city
green bay
seattle
carolina
pittsburgh

**GGPLAYER** · 09-10-12, 04:13 PM

[QUOTE=on3;15967112]just because im impatient and want to post something...

I like it.....we can start tracking these teams.