Spladle08: Improvement on last week?

Fanatik · 10-21-11, 04:32 PM

Spadle,

I like Carolina -2.5 big, at home and a New QB in Wash
I like ATL + at home against a weak Detroit run defense
I like Denver in the PK playing inspired football infront of a sellout crowd in Miami that will be mostly supporting their Fla boy Tebow
I like the over in the Pittsburgh/Arizona game at 43.5... Az will be fired up for this superbowl rematch at home and will put up enough points to cover it, Big Ben should be fine with a very weak Az secondary less Adrian Wilson.
Of your looks so far; I like Balt and GB a lot, Dallas and the NO over somewhat, and I dont like Det... As far as Oak goes I'm just staying away b/c of the QB stuff in Oak, their less than avg run def in Oak, and Cassel and D Bowe looking good as of late. Note: That is not enough to make me go with KC, I'm staying away all together

As far as this being a credible source, I have no track record for you to look at... You helped me out on NCAAFB a lot this week, something I am relativley new at betting wise, and I have done good this year on NFL. That being said, I am not trying to persuade you, just giving you some food for thought that will hopefully return some of the favor... GLGB

spladle08 · 10-21-11, 05:02 PM

I will definitely look at all of those, My NFL has been lacking this year, I think my best week I came out a 3-bet winner, I also think this is a direct result of not putting in the time. Thank you for the help

loopydude11 · 10-21-11, 05:11 PM

ATL isn't playing at home

My plays are: Car -2.5, PIT -3.5, DAL/STL over 43.5

spladle08 · 10-21-11, 06:30 PM

Thanks loop

Fanatik · 10-22-11, 12:11 AM

Thanks for the correction Loop, not sure why I put that... But, I still like ATL. Also, I will post my picks tomorrow for this week, and for the rest of the season at that... New to this forum, so my record will start this week!

DarkNite · 10-22-11, 12:48 AM

No matter what, I really like GB to smash Minny very hard, and I like Denver to show up for That little Tebow plus Carolina to win this game.

spladle08 · 10-22-11, 04:52 AM

yeah Broncos will play "inspired" for whatever reason... maybe Tebow pays em. And GB is just unstoppable. I wanted a Carolina win last week and even bet em straight-up but I was wrong, sigh.... the research continues, thanks guy.

DarkNite · 10-22-11, 08:40 AM

It was hard for Carolina to win last week on the road, but this week is at home, if this team does not win this week, I think they win have no more chance to win this year.

spladle08 · 10-22-11, 11:06 AM

Ok so I have locked in this card and I have reasons for each but just trying to figure this out so dont tail me on NFL at all, lol follow somebody more credible, my NFL game is weak but Im trying to improve it. If you favor a separate team and want to know my reasoning just holla and I will be more than willing to discuss any game (it will only help me.) I aimed to get out write-ups by Wednesday but things have been hectic. I will have an easy week this coming week so I hope I can get some out by Wednesday and we can discuss the various games and possibly come out with a more solid card..... anyways My card is as follow and yes I know I am on all favorites (which is never good)... but the match-ups just seem very favorable.
Bal -8
GB -9.5
Dal -13
Pitt -4
Detroit -3.5
Broncos-PK (Tebow is the chosen one... much to my dismay... and this is the only way, I will force myself to watch this game...)

*** Board Pick****
Carolina -2.5 (I just picked this because most everyone else was)

spladle08 · 10-22-11, 11:09 AM

and yeah I question the Detroit play, but Detroit is 15-4 at home versus Atlanta.... just saying

Fanatik · 10-23-11, 12:25 AM

Here are my picks... Thanks for the college help, I broke even on the week. However, when you see my unit distribution format, you will see that breaking even is very good for me. I bet alot on parlays, so I tend to lose more than I win. I bet strictly for a hobbie, I bet 12 units each week on NCAAFB and 16 units that are 2.5x bigger per unit on NFL each week. If I were to lose everything I bet all weekend long, I would still spend less on this than I do on any of my other hobbies... So, as you can see, I bet very very small. This is because I have a very strict budget on all of my hobbies, and I like it to be fun win lose or draw. That being said, my format is a risky one with very small units. I just love the competitiveness of trying to beat the books...

Total Units Bet: 16
Format: Very Risky/Not Afraid To Lose Every Dime I Bet/Strictly Hobbie

Parlay 1: 3 Units
Den PK
Hou/Ten ov44
Dal -14
GB -10

Parlay 2: 3 Units
Car -2.5
SD +1
Chi -2
Pitt ov44

Cover Teaser: 6 Units
Hou/Ten ov38
GB -4

4 Single Unit 1 Team Bets
Car -2.5
Hou/Ten ov44
Den Pk
SD +1

Hope this helps, note that after some research, I backed off of some of my ATL pick... GL Man!

DroppinDimes · 10-23-11, 02:47 AM

I like those picks as they match mine. I'm taking:

Carolina -2.5
Detroit -4
Denver - EV Biggest play of the day for me.
Good luck.

riffraff24 · 10-23-11, 03:16 AM

What do you guys think about this parlay?

Bears -1.5
Chargers +1
Denver pickem

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 12:07 PM

Sorry I disappeared for yesterday, went into depression and drank myself into misery...good luck today boys

startwinningtoda · 10-23-11, 01:06 PM

me too

lol still hurting

Bentley · 10-23-11, 01:16 PM

lets bounce back i got kilt too liking all your picks

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 01:47 PM

Originally posted by startwinningtoda

lol still hurting

Yeah it was a bloodbath and im sorry startwinning... I'll keep grinding out angles, Im sure a lot less people will put any stock in them.. but hopefully the stars re-align and it starts going well again... got all tuesday and wednesday to do nothing but football so im hoping I can make myself back some $$$ and help others but jesus... last week has given me el jitters.

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 01:48 PM

Fanatik
Parlay 2: 3 Units
Car -2.5
SD +1
Chi -2
Pitt ov44

Looking good... good luck

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 03:28 PM

Bal -8
GB -9.5
Dal -13
Pitt -4
Detroit -3.5 L
Broncos-PK W
Carolina -2.5 W

DarkNite · 10-23-11, 04:03 PM

Originally posted by DarkNite

No matter what, I really like GB to smash Minny very hard, and I like Denver to show up for That little Tebow plus Carolina to win this game.

Two games are right on. I will wait and see if GB will deliver.
What's the pick tonight, Spladle? I really like Indy to come close or this team is dead?

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 04:50 PM

DarkNite Im not on the game at all and my NFL expertise is lacking, but I would lean Indy, they have only lost by 2tds once this year and that was the season opener vs Houston.
The Saints have only beat one team by 2tds+ so that's encouraging as well.
its hard to compare historical data because the Colts usually have P.Manning.
The Saints are 3-10 off a division game (over the last 3 seasons)
The Colts are 6-1 O/U after 2 consecutive losses (over the last 3 seasons)
and 5 of their last 5 games have gone OVER
(Both teams are allowing 25+ pts a game but the Colts are only averaging 17pts of offense)
I would take the Colts +14 or the Over.... I really dont like the over especially with the Colts lack of offense but I feel like if they keep it within 14 its going to also hit the over... tough game... blah + 14 and the under with a phenomenal defensive effort on the road in NO? I just dont see it...
let me know what you play... haha sorry I wasnt much help

Fanatik · 10-23-11, 07:08 PM

Saints/Under is the pick...

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 07:54 PM

Steelers looked nice and cowboys as well... greenbay lost the cover in the end

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 07:56 PM

4-2 through 6.. Baltimore to go

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 09:36 PM

Lol looks like we were both half wrong... or right ... your call

Fanatik · 10-23-11, 09:51 PM

Yeah, I thought the saints would lay it on em, but I didnt know they would drop 50+... See Ya next week for some college help...

spladle08 · 10-23-11, 10:22 PM

Yeah we need a 10-0 weekend

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 05:55 AM

Bal -8
GB -9.5 L
Dal -13 W
Pitt -4 W
Detroit -3.5 L
Broncos-PK W
Carolina -2.5 W

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 07:25 PM

Loaded up on Baltimore over 24 for no reason.. wish me luck!

spladle08 · 10-24-11, 09:19 PM

lol terrible mid-dinner decision

Fanatik · 10-30-11, 01:39 AM

Hey man,
FYI- LOVE the bills-4.5 pick, I would like it if it were -10... Like the pats -2.5 coming off a bye... Like Det -2, but always cheer for my man TEBOW! Like phil -3 off bye week, but not enough to bet. Like Tex -9.5, I bet it, but Jags always seem to cover. Like Cin +1.5, but the whole country seems to be on SEA. Like the colts +9, but didnt bet it. Like the Cards +12.5, but it really feels like a bad pick. GL whatever you decide, PS thanks for talking me out of the AF over, b/c of that and CBASS giving me Nev ov, I broke even...