you know I'm really fascinated with teasers in the NFL because it seems like so many lines in the sport as so incredibly sharp and I've really been amazed by how succesful you can be with teasers in this sport. I am honestly debating just making this my only form of betting in football. Now I'm talking pro football, college football is just a much more unpredictable sport at times because of the talent disparity that you see sometimes
Last week, I calculated smart teaser plays to have something like a 10-2 record, with the only loss that should have been covered was pittsburg getting blown out(in a game that I surely thought would have been a very close game)
now, this week, I wanted to take a look at some smart teaser plays and what their record was. Now I bet on 2 teasers today (GB/Det and ATL/Over) and they were both succesful after going 1-1 last week
now the best form of teasers in football is taking a 7-10 point favorite and turning it into a 1-3 point favorite, or turning a 1-4 point underdog into a 7.5-11 point underdog because the most common margin of victory in football fall in that group. I guess people call this wong teasers??? Or this is a slightly different interpretation of wong teasers with a similar philosophy. Basically my point being to tease the big favorites down and the small underdogs up (as long as you don't take favorites who are bigger than 9-10 point favorites)
this week
Saints Game - teasing 7 pt favorite down = success
Jaguars - teasing 9 point favorite down = success
Oakland - teasing 4 point underdog into 10 underdog = success
Lions - Teasing 8.5 point favorite down = success
Arizona - Teasing 4 pt dog into 10 point dog = success
Packers - Teasing 10 point favorite into 4 point favorite = success
Colts - Tease 2 pt dog into 8.5 point dog = fail
Tampa - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Dolphins - Tease 3 pt dog = fail
49ers - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Bengals - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Pats - Tease 7 pt favorite = success
Falcons - Tease 2.5 pt dog = success
so teasers where a 1-4 point underdog was teased up and 7-10 point favorites were teased down had a record of 11-2
I'm wondering if anybody has had a lot of history of doing this long term in football. Is this just a hot streak in this style of betting or can you really hit 65-75% long term doing this??
Last week, I calculated smart teaser plays to have something like a 10-2 record, with the only loss that should have been covered was pittsburg getting blown out(in a game that I surely thought would have been a very close game)
now, this week, I wanted to take a look at some smart teaser plays and what their record was. Now I bet on 2 teasers today (GB/Det and ATL/Over) and they were both succesful after going 1-1 last week
now the best form of teasers in football is taking a 7-10 point favorite and turning it into a 1-3 point favorite, or turning a 1-4 point underdog into a 7.5-11 point underdog because the most common margin of victory in football fall in that group. I guess people call this wong teasers??? Or this is a slightly different interpretation of wong teasers with a similar philosophy. Basically my point being to tease the big favorites down and the small underdogs up (as long as you don't take favorites who are bigger than 9-10 point favorites)
this week
Saints Game - teasing 7 pt favorite down = success
Jaguars - teasing 9 point favorite down = success
Oakland - teasing 4 point underdog into 10 underdog = success
Lions - Teasing 8.5 point favorite down = success
Arizona - Teasing 4 pt dog into 10 point dog = success
Packers - Teasing 10 point favorite into 4 point favorite = success
Colts - Tease 2 pt dog into 8.5 point dog = fail
Tampa - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Dolphins - Tease 3 pt dog = fail
49ers - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Bengals - Tease 3 pt dog = success
Pats - Tease 7 pt favorite = success
Falcons - Tease 2.5 pt dog = success
so teasers where a 1-4 point underdog was teased up and 7-10 point favorites were teased down had a record of 11-2
I'm wondering if anybody has had a lot of history of doing this long term in football. Is this just a hot streak in this style of betting or can you really hit 65-75% long term doing this??