New England ML is good as GOLD

[C-Gold]

New England Patriots
14-2 Regular Season
Most likely team to win the Super Bowl
Undefeated 8-0 at home
Patriots are even better at home 34 PF, 19 PA
Patriots have scored 30+ points 8 games in a row - best offense in the NFL
10-5-1 ATS ( perform better than expectations)
Young defense has gelled, giving up 7, 3, 27, 7, 3, 24, 28, 26 in their last 8 games
Their only true close game in the 2nd half of the season was vs Green Bay
Win Margins, 31, 31, 4, 29, 42, 21, 3, 13
Patriots won 9 games by 9 or more points
Tom Brady is also maybe the best cold weather QB of All-Time
Bye week

Arguments against Patriots:
Patriots are 1-1 vs Jets already
Patriots lost to Mark Sanchez, Colt Mccoy, and nearly Matt Flynn ( weak QB's)
Jets have less injuiries

Jets only average 24 PF on the road, 23 PA ( largely skewed to Patriots blowout loss)
Jets 7-2 on the road ( I can't complain about that)
Jets will be playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks - that's tough
The Jets have a lot of talent on their roster and they have a good coach but the weakness is a big one... quarterback. Sanchez is good for his age - he came out as a true junior but he's still not a very good QB yet.

The best game plan for the Patriots is to get ahead and take away the Jets run game, and try and have Mark Sanchez pass the ball. The Patriots have the best offense in the league and should be able to score, I can't say the Jets will score with the same confidence. The Jets best shot to win the game is keep it close, reduce the number of possessions, run the ball and make Sanchez a game manager who sprinkles in a few passes. If the Jets are down by double digits and Sanchez has to keep passing the Jets have little to no shot IMO.

I think the Patriots win and cover. I will be on the Patriots ML big, I have them -2 in a teaser ( I love getting them under 3) and I will probably put some cheese on the spread too. Rex Ryan upped the stakes and is begging the Pats to run up the score if they get the chance to, and I believe they will have a chance to.

[walshy83]

I would love nothing better for the Pats to run up the score on the jets. Ryans comments are so stupid yet kinda funny. Im a Pats fan here, I must say Ryan says some weird comments but I bet hes a good shit to have a few cold ones with haha. Lets go Pats!!

[bacon22]

I am not really impressed with the Jets win in Indy. In my opinion, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC. I can see the Pats playing the Falcons or Packers in the Super Bowl.

[SR]

Its also extremely expensive. Never worth the risk.

[Robust]

its the jets or nuttin' for me..

though the pats can get on a good run and put the game outta reach easily.. hmmm..

Robust

[Jive]

I hate both these teams, but I am probably going to be with you on this one.

[MCherry281]

These huge ML's are never worth it. If uncomfortable laying the points then I'd tease. I will just lay the points though. 45-3 won't change that much in a few weeks!

[raiders32]

I expect a blow out win by the Patriots.

[NY Playa]

I expect a BLOW UP by the Pats...NY Jets 21-20.....Brady will have the worst game of his life, woodhead will fumble and hernadez will drop balls. the D will collapse against LT and Greene. JETS WIN...good as Silver Dollar!

[bobbyk1133]

Tease NE with GB for better value.

[McBa1n]

I really like the ML play on the Pats. I can almost guarentee that it will run up to -500 or -550 by kickoff.
-400 is about right in this spot which is where the line is around right now. Decent value, definitly a play I like to make.
Is it a lock? Hell no, but it's my 2nd favorite play of the weekend for certain.

[Kindred]

laying -400 how much value can really be there? Are they really -500 favs to win? Everyone thought the seattle had no chance.

Pats were undefeated in the super bowl playing the Giants..they were bigger favorites in that game.

[Crazygamble]

too good to think about good luck

[PD77]

As long as the Pats play their game they will be fine but the first time they played the Pats forgot to show up for the second half. I just dont like risking $400 to win $100.

[KGB]

I am not really impressed with the Jets win in Indy. In my opinion, the Pats are the team to beat in the AFC. I can see the Pats playing the Falcons or Packers in the Super Bowl.

The Jets executed their game plan to perfection. With all the Indies injuries this year they were still #4 offense in the league overall, and the Jets D shut them down. Defensively I think they will play the same way as against Indy, they will not blitz as much and keep the guys in coverage. As far as offense is concerned the game plan will be simple, pound the ball with Greene and LT, and some short underneath throws or screens for Sanchez. The idea is to win not to put on an offensive show. Can they beat Pats in NE? Yes they can. Will they? That will be determined on Sunday. BOL with ur bet, I'll probably be taken Jets +9 or IMO it will be higher by kick off.

[samdapatriotsfan]

I, of course, like NE as well but -400 is too much to be laying. Nothing is a sure bet in the postseason.

[tad0matic]

As long as the Pats play their game they will be fine but the first time they played the Pats forgot to show up for the second half. I just dont like risking $400 to win $100.

risk\reward is too far apart on this one. This is the NFL Playoffs, too much money to win too little IF everything goes as expected.

[Mr Handicapable]

It doesn't mean the Jets will win (or cover) but I've never seen #6 seeds with more talent in my life!! Both the Jets/Packers have a ton of talent! I think GB might have shown how to shake up Brady a little in their game....blitzed up the middle...double covered Welker and outrushed New England! If the Jets can do some of that (Revis on Welker?) then it could be close?

I doubt the Jets would say they executed their gameplan to perfection against Indy? Sanchez made sure they were shutout at halftime and they squeaked by a team w/18 guys on Injured Reserve? I'm starting to argue both ways on this one....staying far away w/my money!!

[jagermeister1]

The Colts D letting them score with only :55 left is the only reason they are in this game.

The Jets suck. NE wins by double digits. Anybody expecting Brady to have the worst game of his his life against a team this shitty will be sorely disappointed.

[headhunter34]

i dont trust sanchez at all. pats all the way!

[Redchevy]

The Colts D letting them score with only :55 left is the only reason they are in this game.

The Jets suck. NE wins by double digits. Anybody expecting Brady to have the worst game of his his life against a team this shitty will be sorely disappointed.

I agree, NE will have 38-45 points with :55 seconds left and will not be in Indys' situation. Look for Brady to have one of his "Statement" games Sunday!!!! As for anyone looking for Brady to have one of his worst games in this spot, you obviously don't watch enough football. Good luck.

[ochenta y cinco]

Teasing NE to -2 is really safe. It's a better option than taking the ML @ -400 IMO.

[Numenor80]

terrible price for the moneyline

[LT Profits]

Tease NE with GB for better value.

Sharpest post in the thread.

[JosephPavs]

I like the way this is going I hope that they all pull it off

[C-Gold]

Its also extremely expensive. Never worth the risk.

The Patriots implied probability to win the game is 80%. Now do you think they have a greater or lower chance of winning this game? If you think they have a 90% chance of winning and the market says they have an 80% chance of winning then it can be worth a wager.

I find it extremely unlikely the Patriots lose this game. They win this 9/10 times. If this is the case then a -400 Money Line is in fact cheap. Teasing the Patriots to -2 is a gift.

[C-Gold]

Tease NE with GB for better value.

Tease New England with Baltimore for even better value.

NE dusted off the Jets 45-3 a month ago
Ravens are 12-4 this year and they have not lost a game by more than 5 points through 17 games.

[C-Gold]

The Jets executed their game plan to perfection. With all the Indies injuries this year they were still #4 offense in the league overall, and the Jets D shut them down. Defensively I think they will play the same way as against Indy, they will not blitz as much and keep the guys in coverage. As far as offense is concerned the game plan will be simple, pound the ball with Greene and LT, and some short underneath throws or screens for Sanchez. The idea is to win not to put on an offensive show. Can they beat Pats in NE? Yes they can. Will they? That will be determined on Sunday. BOL with ur bet, I'll probably be taken Jets +9 or IMO it will be higher by kick off.

Jets at times had 1 down lineman formations vs the Colts. They were basically laughing at the Colts offensive line and running backs and daring Peyton to audible into running plays. 1 lineman, 4 LBs, 6 DBs????

You say Sanchez will be a "game manager", but what if the #1 offense in the NFL starts scoring points? What happens if the Jets are down by 7, 10, 14, 20 points? Is he going to be handing the ball off and throwing passes into the flats?

Let's look at some splits on Paco Sanchez
56% completion percentage, 1967 yards, 8 TD 9 INT, 75.9 QB rating when his team was behind

Pancho Villa Sanchez QB rating by month
Sept: 104
Oct: 63
Nov: 86
Dec 58

QB rating in wins = 87
QB rating in losses = 51.2
In losses, 48.6%, 979 yards, 1 TD 7 INT, 51.2 rating

Mark Sanchez at Gillete stadium
51.5%, 164 yards, 0 TD 3 INT, 27.8 rating, and his team put up a pitiful 3 points.

The Jets do have a lot of talent, they are actually loaded with talent, but they are weak at the most important position of quarterback. A good QB can mask a lot of deficincies on a team, and a weak QB can drag a good team down. Sanchez is poised to let all that talent on the Jets rot like they did a month ago when they went up to Boston.

[rake922]

Pats MoneyLine 40k to win 10k.... easy 10k after 3 hours of game play

[SR]

The Patriots implied probability to win the game is 80%. Now do you think they have a greater or lower chance of winning this game? If you think they have a 90% chance of winning and the market says they have an 80% chance of winning then it can be worth a wager.

I find it extremely unlikely the Patriots lose this game. They win this 9/10 times. If this is the case then a -400 Money Line is in fact cheap. Teasing the Patriots to -2 is a gift.

Talking implied probabilities is nice and all but I'm not interested in taking a chance on an NFL game with outrageous moneylines. Regardless of stats you are laying a large amount for little reward on a sporting event.

[C-Gold]

Talking implied probabilities is nice and all but I'm not interested in taking a chance on an NFL game with outrageous moneylines. Regardless of stats you are laying a large amount for little reward on a sporting event.

Scared money makes no money

I'm wagering a lot to win a little?
Would you rather wager a little on something that will lose money?

[LT Profits]

Tease New England with Baltimore for even better value.

NE dusted off the Jets 45-3 a month ago
Ravens are 12-4 this year and they have not lost a game by more than 5 points through 17 games.

Packers +8.5 is better value than Ravens +10 (which can essentially be +9.5 in some teasers). With Green Bay, you are going THROUGH the 3 and the 7.

[C-Gold]

Packers +8.5 is better value than Ravens +10 (which can essentially be +9.5 in some teasers). With Green Bay, you are going THROUGH the 3 and the 7.

With the Ravens you get key numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, 10... 3 is fantastic to tease up to 10

Especially since the Ravens haven't lost a game by double digits this year. They won 13 games, and lost their games by 3, 3, 5, 5. So the Raven's haven't even lost a game by 6 or 7 points nevermind 10...

Further, it figures to be a low scoring game where points are marginally worth more. If there are going to be 70 points scored in a game they are marginally worth less than if there are going to be 30 points in a game.

Ravens get off the Key number of 3... I mean the difference between 3 and 3.5 is big right?
7 is another key number

but 4, 6, and 10 are secondary numbers. You get all of those... 3 is a fantastic number to tease up.

[LT Profits]

With the Ravens you get key numbers 3, 4, 6, 7, 10... 3 is fantastic to tease up to 10

Especially since the Ravens haven't lost a game by double digits this year. They won 13 games, and lost their games by 3, 3, 5, 5. So the Raven's haven't even lost a game by 6 or 7 points nevermind 10...

Further, it figures to be a low scoring game where points are marginally worth more. If there are going to be 70 points scored in a game they are marginally worth less than if there are going to be 30 points in a game.

Ravens get off the Key number of 3... I mean the difference between 3 and 3.5 is big right?
7 is another key number

but 4, 6, and 10 are secondary numbers. You get all of those... 3 is a fantastic number to tease up.

10 is either a loss or a push and Ravens are starting ON 3.

Packers are starting at 2.5 and going THROUGH 3. Thus, Packers +8.5 is more valuable.

[C-Gold]

10 is either a loss or a push and Ravens are starting ON 3.

Packers are starting at 2.5 and going THROUGH 3. Thus, Packers +8.5 is more valuable.

10 is a push for that wager, but you are still compensated for Patriots -2.

Ravens gets OFF 3
Gets through 7
Gets ON to 10
Plus you get the secondary key numbers of 4, 6

Plus it will be a lower scoring game. Packers/Falcons could be one team scoring in the 30's to another team scoring in the 20's, what if the final is Atlanta 30, Green Bay 21? Atlanta 34- Green Bay 24.

The Steelers-Ravens game could be 13-6 for all we know.