Just My Picks

[F42294]

So far Ravens games going like we thought. Texans inability to put the ball into the end zone when presented with opportunities is keeping the game from being over the total already. Fourth Qtr still need one TD for the over. Hopefully Houston will pick one up and not let us down. Thinking an intereception return for a TD before the game is over. Maybe by Baltimore, maybe by the Texans.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[hoku808pc]

There you go bro...

Cash that over...

[F42294]

Thinking an intereception return for a TD before the game is over. Maybe by Baltimore, maybe by the Texans

Felt that pick 6 coming for sure just didn't think it would take until OT. It was ok though gave me a cover on my unpublished Ravens and Over parlay.

Ok 5-1 now. Hard to resist being action junkie and trying to force picks. Going to try and only make the really good plays.

[fuggles]

Felt that pick 6 coming for sure just didn't think it would take until OT. It was ok though gave me a cover on my unpublished Ravens and Over parlay. Ok 5-1 now. Hard to resist being action junkie and trying to force picks. Going to try and only make the really good plays.

keep it up man

[F42294]

Tonight I am going to make a popular pick which always scares me when I agree with the public. I have a strong enough lean on this game to justify a pick even though the public is so strong. I was hoping that the results of the past two weeks would make the public less favorable to this pick but San Diego's loss to Oakland two weeks ago and San Fran's 40 points last week seems to not have discouraged the public support of San Diego for tonight.

San Fran sports offensive numbers in the bottom middle of the league in offensive categories (inflated by last weeks performance) and similar numbers in passing defense. Their rushing defense is impressive ranking #9 in the league, however they are facing the #2 PASSING offense this week. San Diego backs up their strong passing with the #13 ranked rushing offense but throwing against this San Fran defense will be the theme of the night. San Fran's performance last week seems impressive, but a quick glance at the stats show something a little different. Two of their TDs last week were from 42 yards out and 62 yards out on pass plays, they had an interception return for a TD and a 15 yard TD pass. Everything else was FG, FG, FG and FG. While they were able to hit big plays against the leagues 30th ranked pass defense in Seattle, they didn't seem to be able to put together substained drives for scores and the drives they had stalled and resulted in only FG's. This week the pass defense they face from San Diego is a slight bit better as San Diego has the BEST pass defense in the league and backs that up with the #4 ranked rush defense. Maybe San Francisco can get a long TD pass somewhere during this game but they won't do it multiple times like they did with Seattle and they definitely won't be able to put together long substained drives for TD's anywhere during this game. Expect the only scoring from San Fran to come either on the 1st drive of the game or late in the 2nd half as they try to play catch-up throwing the ball on every down. San Diego is over their let down game to Oakland, which came after a big win in Indy, and won't play mad like they did in shutting down division leader KC 31-0 last week. However they are motivated to continue to win and take over 1st place in the division from KC before the end of the year so they can get a home playoff game. San Fran is still in the hunt at 5-8 in a week division and this is a must win game for them to keep any hope of the playoffs alive, however they know in their hearts they aren't a playoff team and that will become apparent in the 1st two quarters of the game tonight. That should be enought to break their spirit and keep anything resembling a back door cover from happening against San Diego who should dominate this game. I know you might be a little gun shy after the Tennessee cover against Indy last week and are thinking Thursday night games are trap games. I was thinking that might be a possibility as well so I looked back over this season at the Thursday games and found the favorite team covered in all but 3 games this year. Other than the cover last week, the only other underdog covers were Dallas vs NO on Thanksgiving and Chicago beating Miami SU earlier in the season. If you remember the Miami/Chicago game Chicago was way underrated and Miami started 3rd string QB Thigpen. This late in the season I don't think any teams are still underrated and San Diego will be starting Rivers even though TE Gate is doubtful. This game looks "easy" but is it ever easy giving up 9 1/2 points in the NFL? I won't say this pick is easy but less than a double digit spread for the #2 pass offense against a below average defense, backed up by a strong San Diego defense against the weak, big play relient San Fran offense is tasty enough to make tonight an official pick. Take San Diego -9.5 tonight over San Francisco and feel good there won't be a late back door cover. San Diego -9.5 over San Francisco.

(I know I'm not buying the .5 point tonight but don't think we'll be close to needing it.)

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[F42294]

6-1 Not bad, not bad. Feeling pretty good but need to make sure I only make quality picks, don't push don't over extend, don't play just for the action.

Hope lots of you cashed on San Diego with me. Didn't watch game as I was at WEC fights, but it looks like the game basically went down as predicted. Lots of passing by San Diego and lots of nothing by San Francisco. Late score for the 7?

Stay tuned for next pick coming soon.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[F42294]

6-1 going into full throttle bowl season. I expect to have several plays over the next week. Stay tuned.

[F42294]

Merry Christmas everyone!

My next pick is up but I'm a little scared for this pick for two reasons. One the public is all over this pick and two the line is so far off where it should be something is fishy. I've looked at this play six ways to Sunday and still don't see what I'm missing, so I am going with the public and taking the Vegas bait on the low line (even after the Dallas debacle last night for everyone who thought lock.)

Baltimore goes into Cleveland in a game that Baltimore wants to win to get into the playoffs (they still have a very outside chance at winning the division but should be able to lock up a wild card.) and Cleveland wants to lose to pump up their draft position (especially after the Arizona win last night). The Ravens are clearly the superior team and should be able to pump a lot of revitialized Ray Rice down the throats of the 25th ranked Cleveland rush defense. Baltimore can be passed on especially late in the game and with deep passes. The problem Cleveland will have is their pass offense is only ranked 28th in the league...ouch. Colt McCoy will be an upgrade of Seneca Wallace who started for Cleveland in Baltimore earlier in the year, but Seneca had a 103 passer rating in that game and Cleveland still lost the game by a TD. I don't think Colt will pull a 103 passer rating today. Cleveland also had over 100 yards rushing in the 1st game when they lost in Baltimore. So they get a 103 QB and a 100 yard rusher and still lose the game? How do you do better than that so you can win the game? Obviously I don't think Clevelands offense will improve on those numbers this game and I don't see the defense doing anything to slow the Ravens. The 24-17 game in Week 3 should become a 31-10 game today. Ravens cover 4 points pulling away late in the game when Cleveland facing the inevitable finally gives up and lets Ray Rice run all over them. Remember Baltimore rushing attacks have a history of dominating, record setting performances against Cleveland defenses. Joe Flaco's job today will be to protect the ball and hand off to Ray Rice from what will be the best seat in the house. Take Baltimore against all the bad ju-ju (public love and vegas line) 31-10 over Cleveland. Baltimore -4 over Cleveland.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[F42294]

7-1 with the win by Baltimore today. Ok this one was much closer than we thought it would be but a late pick by Ed Reed in the end zone, minimal mistakes by the Ravens and 4 turnovers by Cleveland (told you McCoy wouldn't have a Seneca Wallace type day...lol.) all help to pull us out a clean win. Ray Rice never broke any big runs like we thought he would but over 150 yrds rushing as a team is just what the doctor ordered against this Cleveland defense.

Got an eye on the Toledo v Florida Intl. game tonight, check back later to see if we have a pick.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[hoku808pc]

Good call bro...

[F42294]

I really like Toledo tonight over Florida Intl. but the line has been moving against the public. Meaning although 53% of the bets are coming in on Toledo the line movement is actually favoring Florida Intil. which means there is more money on Florida Intl. even though there are more bets on Toledo. When crazy line movement like this happens it usually means something is fishy in Denmark (or Detroit as the case may be.) The sharp play on this game will be Florida Intl. as "connected" people obviously know something I don't know, however I can't base my bet just on that line movement so I will NOT have a play on this game.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[F42294]

Glad we watched that "Wise Guy" money that kept us of Toledo last night.

Tonight I am liking the MNF game between Atlanta and New Orleans. Everything in this game points to an Atlanta win and cover. Atlanta is 6-0 at home this year and 4-2 ATS at home. Atlanta is 7-2 ATS where the line is +3 to -3 and 10-4 ATS in all games. Basically they are a cover machine. New Orleans is 1-2 in games where the line is +3 to -3, 6-8 ATS in all games, and 2-5 ATS in road games. While New Orleans is still a good team and is playoff bound, they are not the team from last year. Their run defense has been exposed and that was never more evident than last week against Baltimore and Ray Rice who ran all over New Orleans. Atlanta comes into this game with the 8th best NFL rushing offense which will be looking to take advantage of New Orleans 21st ranked rushing defense. Even in the now pass happy NFL, rushing is still king. Ball control, clock management and the ability to close out games is what makes the difference between a great offense and a superbowl contender. New Orleans still has a great offense, but Atlanta is a superbowl contender. New Orleans will score points against Atlanta tonight, but Atlanta will score more and then they will be able to put the game away in the fourth quarter and not allow Drew Brees a chance at a last minute drive. An undefeated at home Atlanta team with a chance to clinch home field throughout the playoffs against an ATS nightmare no rush defense New Orleans team equals an Atlanta cover and an increase in our bankroll. Expect a high scoring game but an Atlanta win and cover.

Atlanta -2.5 over New Orleans.

GL to everyone whoever you are on this week.

[hoku808pc]

Im with you bro...

I am never fading ATL at home again... I did it when they played the Packers and learned my lesson the hard way...

Good luck tonight...

[F42294]

7-2

Disappointing loss last night, didn't get to watch the game but based on highlights and the little bit I caught it seems like we had plenty of chances and blew everyone. Rushing game didn't get going, fumble at the goal line, unable to take advantage of other opportunities. I still feel like it was a good pick just didn't pan out for us.

Still 7-2 and looking to build. Next pick coming soon.