C-Gold's Week 12 Breakdown + Picks

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 08:26 PM

Some thoughts on the games...

NE @ Detroit +7
- The Patriots are not the same team on the road as they are at home, I do tend to like the over in this game as I think both offenses are advanced over the defenses, the one thing is the Lions D-Line has played well at home ( in particular the Washington game) but it looks like Cliff Avril will be out.

NO @ Dallas +4
Haven't thought about this game yet, but the Saints looked to have fixed some of their problems but then again Dallas is playing better too. I like what I've heard from Jason Garret so far.

Cincy @ Jets -9
Saragin's line says this line should be Jets -14, I just think the public has perceived some very close Jets wins and hasn't bought 100% into Sanchez yet. On the same token Cincy's defense is horrible ( fire Marvin already) and the offense is NOT good, it has actually regressed. T.O admits the team sucks, but did they hit bottom? I think the Jets would be a good TEASE down to -2.5 to pair with something else and I'd tend to agree they win by double digits but I'm not excited to lay all those points for some reason.

GB @ Atlanta -2.5
Saragin says this line is correct and he likes the Falcons a lot more than I do. I still consider them pretenders as I can't see them beating the Giants/Saints/Packers/Eagles in the playoffs but that's just me. If they do win this and get some sort of homefield advantage who knows. Ryan is still not in the same class as Brees, Rodgers, and Eli in my book and I'm not impressed with Atlanta's D. I know people will like to play Atlanta because Matt Ryan has won X number of games at home in a row but streaks are made to be broken. Aaron Rodgers is the better QB with the better defense. Further research for sure.

Jacksonville @ Giants -7.5
So I look at the standings and see the Jags tied for 1st place? I'd like to fade them but the Giants are hurt in some key areas on offense. They were missing lineman ( including their center) last week AND Hackeem Nicks and Steve Smtih. It makes Eli Mannings job a hell of a lot harder with backup lineman and throwing passes to Derrick Hagan they just picked up off the street. The Giants have 4 WRs on the injury list and as much as I think the Jags are overrated I just don't want to lay all those points. It's too hard of a job for one dude. I still maintain that Garrard is overrated and will never win shit in the playoffs but this line should be under 7 IMO.

Ten @ Hou
Who is starting for the Titans? Don't want to play this game.

Carolina @ Cleveland
Cleveland or nothing for me. Saragin says the line should open at -15.55, but I'd guess it opens at Cleveland -9 but that's just me. It could actually be a play depending on the price.

Pitt @ Buffalo +6.5
Like Pitt a lot even though I think Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing really well. I think Buffalo's defense is garbage and I think the Steelers D will make it hard enough for Fitz. This is no "lock" because Fitz beat the Ravens 3-4 defense on the road by himself, I just see Pittsburgh winning by more than 7 and it's probably my favorite play of the week.

Minn @ Washington
Washington has the unfavorable trend of being a DTWOTFTFW. Saragin says they should be favored by a lot more, Minny is what 2-8 ATS but they do have a new coach and the reason why Washington has (value) is because they lost like 6-7 guys to injury last week. When you factor that in it's not so easy. Washington won a close one last week but they got killed by the eagles two weeks ago and their slow defense was exposed. Minny gets Sidney Rice back and has the speedy Adrian Peterson. I'd tend to lean Minnesota but they've been an utter dissapointment this year and don't know if they are worth the play. Maybe tease them up to +9?

Mia@ Oak
Miami with their 3rd string QB vs Campbells raiders? I don't need to gamble that bad.

KC @ Seattle +1
Seattle is too much of a Jeckyle Hyde kind of team to bet on.

STL @ Den -4
Line seems reasonable, not too interested in this game either as I don't have an "edge".

Philly @ Chicago +3.5
I think the world wants to take the Eagles -3.5, but I think more often than not Chicago covers this spread. Chicago is tied for the #1 defense in points given up, they have Peppers to run around and chase Con-Vict and the Giants made the blue print for stopping him. This game is going to come down to CUTLER NOT CON-VICT. If the Bears can protect him and run the ball some they lose by 3 or less or win the game. If Cutler is on his back all game the Eagles should score on defense and win by DD. So how smart do you think Lovie Smith and Mike Martz are going to be in this? Well no I haven't done extensive research on this game but I tend to think the Eagles are overrated.

TB @ Baltimore -7.5
I want to fade Tampa but doesn't everyone? I think they are the worst 7-3 team I have ever seen... Ever. But they keep getting lines like this and nobody really respects them. I just don't like laying a lot of points with Flacco the Wacco. Saragin says the Ravens should be laying 9.33 points and I do think the line will move to Ravens -9 by kickoff and I think they probably cover but I'll want to do some reasearch.

SD @ Indy -3
This is probably my 2nd favorite play of the week. Colts at home pressuring Rivers... SD hasn't been that great on the road... I'd tend to lean Colts and the Over but I feel pretty good about the Colts coming home and beating the Chargers in this one.

SF @ Arizona +1
How many weeks are people going to get burned by the 49ers. It seems like people picked them to be good this year ( I didn't and that's documented) they keep losing... people keep chasing... and people keep getting burned EVERY WEEK! Mike Singeltary is the biggest joke of a coach in the NFL. It's not even that he isn't smart enough, it's that his mindset is totally wrong. Honestly, watch a 49ers game and YOU could predict their play calling. Run run run... 3rd and 12 they are going to run a screen or a draw... Their passes are dump offs... UNTIL they are down by 14+ points and then they open it up and start throwing it a little bit.

You talk about teams in sports built to win? Play aggressive, get a lead and then protect it? In baseball you might protect it with a closer like Mariano Rivera in football you might run your 4 min. offense with lots of handoffs and clock running? The 49ers gameplan is the exact opposite. They play conservative... start losing, and then open it up a little bit. Then the coach says that the problem is about not having WINNERS, it's about EFFORT, EXECUTION... sorry mike, you are running a 25 year old game plan, this is a PASSING LEAGUE NOW. THEY CHANGED THE RULES! Not only do the 49ers suck right now, but they are not very fun to watch. In fact the only reason to watch the team is too see if their coach has his inevitable COORS LIGHT blow up moment.

knelson · 11-23-10, 08:44 PM

Thanks for the write-ups. That GB vs ATL matchup should be pretty fun to watch!

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by knelson

Thanks for the write-ups. That GB vs ATL matchup should be pretty fun to watch!

Yeah I might just watch the game as a fan, but my gut tells me the Packers win, but on paper it should be a good game. I don't know what I'm going to do.

ChileCheese · 11-23-10, 09:33 PM

Tease it. Seems like a good option.

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 09:51 PM

Originally posted by ChileCheese

Tease it. Seems like a good option.

GB + 9 or so seems good, but a 10 point win really isn't a lock lock for a big game that could have a lot of points. I don't think GB +9 is incrimentally that much better than +2 for the risk taken. I mean haven't you seen games end with a 10 point margin that were really close? I don't feel "that" much safer as this is a big game and teams will score points because they know that if they are up by 1 possession at the end of this game they could easily lose as both QB's can drive down the field.

I think Baltimore from 8 to 2 seems pretty good.
The Patriots teased down "should" win by more than a FG
Same with Baltimore...
Same with Pittsburgh...but the odds are one of them gets upset.

Detroit has been a covering machine and is better than their 2-8 record and the Patriots did shit a brick on the road in cleveland a few weeks ago.

I was thinking of doing this...
Teasing one of the Thanksgiving day favorites ( Patriots, Jets, or the Parriots/Lions over down) paired with the Steelers on Sunday...

IF the first leg losses ( say the Patriots lose) then I could re-tease the Jets with the Steelers as a chase.

If the Steelers lose then I lose but I see them as a pretty strong play to beat the Bills.

Just thinking outloud here.

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 09:56 PM

Two more things to point out...
Florida teams traveling north...
Jacksonville & Tampa ( but the weather has been unseasonably warm in the North East). Let's see how it holds up.

ChileCheese · 11-23-10, 10:00 PM

I have NE on a a teaser already, and the Over with Dallas and New Orleans.
But yea, as for Sunday, I think taking NYG, BAL, and PIT are easy money.

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 10:17 PM

New England's results
Won by 3
Won by 13
Lost by 20
Won by 10
Won by 3
Won by 3 in OT
Won by 27
Won by 8
Lost by 14
Won by 14

Detroit
Lost by 16
Lost by 2
Lost by 3 OT
Won by 12
Lost by 8
Won by 38
Lost by 2
Lost by 14
Lost by 2
Lost by 5

NE 5-5 if they laid 7 points in every game
Det 7-3 if they received 7 points in every game

Further Detroit is a terrible road team and better at home, look at their last 4 home games...
Lost by 3 in OT to the 8-2 Jets
Beat 5-5 Washington by 12
Beat the Rams by 38
Lost to everybodies Darling Michael Vick Eagles by 3 at home

Early money looks to be pouring in on the Patriots. It may win, but I think this one isn't as easy as people think... However I do think the over could be attractive as the Patriots score nearly 30 per game and this game is on the fast field and the Lions Back 7 is weak... the X factor will be their front 4 and if they can get after Brady.

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 10:44 PM

Atlanta wins at home, but who did they beat?
Arizona 41-7 ( shit team, but they gave them a beat down)
San Fran 16-14 ( shit team, and shoulda woulda coulda lost with a Nate Clements fumble the gw int)
Cincy 39-32 ( another real game against another shit team)
Tampa 27-21 ( Not impressed by this win either)
Baltimore 26-21 ( won the game but it was too close RIGGED finish)

So Atlanta and Matty Ice have a nice winning streak at home, but 4/5 of the teams they beat were awful, and they deserved to beat Baltimore, but there sure were some shitty calls at the end of that game. I still believe GB wins pretty easily on a neutral field.

Green Bay on the road...
@ Minny 31-3 win ( KO of Favre and Chilly)
@ Jets 9-0 ( gave an 8-2 team one of their losses)
@ Washington 13-16 OT loss ( Outplayed Wash, got comfortable and lazily let Washington back into it)
@ Chicago 17-20 ( Special teams beat them in a game they outplayed the Bears in)
@ Philly 27-20 ( Beat everybodies favorite team)

That's a pretty quality schedule and the Packers outplayed their opponent in every game but lost two close ones they shouldn't have lost. The Packers are a decent team on the road for two reasons...
1. They have a top notch QB who can play on the road
2. They have a defense and defense travels

I lean GB, I think Atlanta is overrated and that the Packers are on their ascent.
GB 4-0 in their last 4 games
GB 4-0 ATS

I picked them to win it all LAST year before the season when nobody cared about them, and wanted to pick them this year but they got so overvalued out of the statosphere and now people jumped off that bandwagon. I've been riding them and I think they are the play getting 2.5 points vs the Fal Coons. GB or nothing for me.

ChileCheese · 11-23-10, 10:56 PM

I really like your analysis of the GB - ATL game. Ryan is excellent at home... but they arent quite Bradyesque performances.. and he will ahve to lose again eventually.

C-Gold · 11-23-10, 11:22 PM

In all reality the Falcons were dead to rights vs the 49ers. Not only did Matt Ryan get picked off by Nate Clements on what could have been the "game winning drive" with under 2 minutes in the game but it was on 4th and 10 I believe ( if not 3rd and 10). The Mr. Hot dog is running the interception back and gets his pocket picked. The 49ers should have won the game if not for that bone headed play. Then Atlanta marches down kicks the game winning FG. I'm not going to fault Atlanta for exploiting that opportunity but they EASILY could have lost to that awful 49ers team... and that also was a west coast team traveling east for a 1pm kickoff.

ttrace35 · 11-24-10, 12:24 AM

I think this is the last time we will get mike vick on the cheap. The Greek has him at -3 right now. The bears aren't really that good and I love to fade Cutler whenever I can. Think about it C. I'm not a mathematician but take a look at the winning percentage of the teams they have beaten. 1 good GB team early in the season before They got it going. Somebody please help me with the math on this. Then take a look at the teams philly has beaten. Big difference. I think Mike Vick is on a mission. Eagles are the better team. C, tell me why I shouldnt make a nice size play? -3 is the key.

C-Gold · 11-24-10, 07:21 AM

I'll respond after work but Michael Vick is the most over hyped over rated of all time.... all time. He's been better this go around but if you look at his career body of work and how much media hype he's received he's head and shoulders above everybody else. For most of his career he's been Joey Harrington on wheels (maybe even worse) yet they put him on video games, they had a 15 min promo not part of the pregame but him running his mouth before he came back against Carolina... the guy gets injured all the time, I mean I'm so sick of it. He has 12,000 career passing yards since being drafted 7 years ago and Phillip Rivers has 3,000 in half a season... I'm so sick of Con-Vict.

PS. I knew people that would see him around V-Tech and he's a ****** and I've been saying it since 2001. He's a horrible horrible person and it's not even just about dog fighting.

ttrace35 · 11-24-10, 09:48 AM

I dunno C? Ill wait til you get off work for your analysis. I don't really care what kind of person he is. Just tryin to make some $$$$$. Let's not let emotions cloud our handicapping. The real issue here is the bears suck. Haven't played anybody yet. They lost at home to D-mac. We'll talk more after you finish work.

officepoolguy · 11-24-10, 10:23 AM

Turner is the key. If he has 100 yds atl wins. He does struggle vs 34 defense.. I think gb is a 34 (correct me if I am wrong) so I would lean gb. Just a thought.

C-Gold · 11-24-10, 08:53 PM

Philly
I wanted to take them when everybody penciled in the Giants to the SB, I saw Philly to win it all at 25-1. Now the tables have turned and everybody liked the Eagles, I just can't picture the overrated Vick making it through the playoffs and winning it all but 25/1 was a good price for a decent team.

Last few games, Road games in bold
Win by 10 (Vick)
Win by 31 (Vick)
Win by 2 (Vick)
Loss by 18 (Kolb)
Win by 14 (Kolb)
Win by 3 (Kolb)
Loss by 5 (Vick)
Win by 24 (Vick)
Win by 3 (Vick)
Loss by 7 (Kolb)
Philly in ALL Games would be 4-6 vs a mythical 3.5 point spread
Philly in road games would be 2-3 vs a mythical 3.5 point spread
Vick would be 3-3 vs a mythical 3.5 point spread

Sorts of puts it into perspective huh... That .5 makes a big difference... Granted Philly's schedule has been alright, but they have been a .500 team or worse when you look at their splits vs a 3.5 point spread.

Bears Home games in bold
Won by 16
Won by 14
Won by 3
Lost by 3
Lost by 3
Won by 17
Lost by 14
Won by 3
Won by 7
Won by 5
Bears in ALL GAMES would be 9-1 if they received 3.5 points in every game
Bears would be 5-0 if they were given 3.5 points in every game

The Eagles schedule has been modertely challenging
The Bears schedule has been pretty easy
The Bears are "over rated" to most people (Cutler)
The Eagles are a front runner to many and overrated IMO

Some of my thoughts...
The Bears defense is good...underrated

Cutler
Everybody wants to hate on Cutler and say he's trash, but I think he hasn't been given the tools he needs... Johnny Knox is not a very good WR, neither is Earl Bennett and neither is Devin Hester... His line sucks, and his coach is trying to run a bad scheme for the personel he has... He has a weak line and poor WR's and he's trying to run a down field passing attack.

When Cutler was in Denver and had talent and coaching around him he looked fantastic, he looked like a long term stud... Then he goes to Chicago.... has the opposite around him, has bad stats and people are so quick to forget... You see a guy throwing 4 picks, I see a guy with no line and horrible receivers trying to run a squre peg scheme into a round hole.

Look at what Favre had last year ( with a team around him) and his wonderful stats and look at what he had two years ago with a not so good team around him and bad stats. Stats can vary big time from year to year and Cutler is being given a raw deal this year. The reason why his stats suck is because he's not a quitter and would rather go down TRYING and taking RISKS and THROWING and maybe throwing 4 picks than losing for sure and making the "safe" play. I actually like that instead of the Jason Campbell route where it's 3rd and 15 and I'll keep throwing that checkdown pass to my RB for 5 yards.

Vick
Even in Vick's first go around he was the most overrated player in the league. People talked about him like he was a top 5 QB when in fact he was average at best. No receivers? Roddy White looks pretty good for Matt Ryan. Vick was just a pike of excuses after a pile of excuses. He was the best guy ever yet he was always injured and had Joey Harrington passing stats.

He's been better after jail, but after the best game of his life the Warren Sapps, Marshall Faulks, Stuart Scotts and black announcers on TV annointed him the best QB in the league. He had around 400 combined yards for once in his life and they want to already push him to #1? That doesn't happen when Matt Schaub gets 400 yards... or Brett Favre... or anybody else.

But the reason why Vick is so overrated is it's very EASY to see why he is good,
but it takes a trained eye to see all of the plays he's leaving on the field....

Everybody can watch a 30 yard run in awe. Vick can do some things that no other QB can do, but he also can't do a lot of the routine things even an average QB can do. Aaron Rodgers can throw a 30 yard back shoulder throw that is nearly impossible to defend if the QB/WR are in sync... it's undefendable and truly amazing... but people don't always realize that... Drew Brees can read a defense before the snap of the ball and know where to go with the ball and it's so hard to defense that... he can audible from a play that won't work into a play that will work... but that's harder to see... but Vicks runs anybody can see...

Slants against the Eagles
Chicago's underrated defense
The game will be on grass which partially slows down the Eagles speed
The weather should be cold and slow down all players/make angles easier for defenders
It's the "prime time" 4PM game and the Refs seem to more so "influence" those games
Eagles are the #2 most bet side I see so far after the Patriots.

Further thoughts
- In all honestly I'd probably rather have Bears +3.5 & Lions +7 than Patriots -7 and Eagles -3.5... I see the public loading up on those teams and the public won big last week... Best day for the public in 5 years.

- The Eagles and Bears will probably be playing with backup centers... I'd like to see the Bears move Peppers to the right side to Exploit RT Winston Justice and attack Vick's blind side...

- The Bears will HAVE to protect Cutler against trent cole

I think the Giants laid out a decent game plan to stop Vick

I just see this game a lot harder than you do. One other thought I've been thinking about the last couple years is how I just subjectivly see stronger Line play as the biggest difference between home & away teams. Maybe it's the crowd juicing them up, maybe it's a better night's sleep but I just feel like when a team is at home their offensive line for whatever reason pushes better for run blocking and D-Lines pass rush better at home as opposed to on the road. It's just a slight thing I see from week to week home to road.

ttrace35 · 11-24-10, 10:06 PM

Nice write up C. Thanx. I will take this under consideration. Might not go too heavy but have to drop something on it. I hate Cutler. Think he is a really bad QB. He goes on a 3 game win streak against cream puffs and everybody forgets. I remember a month ago people hated this guy. His defense is what has been winning games. Not him or that bad offense. The giants did a GREAT job against Vick, but could only contain him. Chicago doesn't score enough. IMO. We will see.

C-Gold · 11-24-10, 10:11 PM

TB/Baltimore
TB has had an easy schedule and is "overrated" right?
They lost to the teams they were supposed to lose to...
@ ATL lost by 6
NO Lost by 25
Pitt Lost by 25
but they beat the weaker teams...
@ SF won by 21
Car won by 15
@ Arizona won by 3
STL won by 1
@ Cincy won by 3
@ Carolina won by 13
Cleveland won by 3

but they are supposed to lose to Baltimore, so how did Baltimore do in games they were supposed to win?
They lost to Cincinatti ( were supposed to win), also lost to NE and ATL which were tougher games
but beat Pitts, Jets and the other easier teams on their schedule

I tend to like Baltimore in a Teaser, but Flacco is nothing special and I'm not sure they cover. Tampas run defense isn't good

C-Gold · 11-25-10, 10:28 AM

ADD

Detroit Lions +7 ( 1 unit)

C-Gold · 11-25-10, 02:13 PM

ADD

Patriots @ Lions 2nd half OVER 25 ( 1 unit)

C-Gold · 11-25-10, 08:22 PM

ADD for 1 unit

Jets -4, Steelers -1 = 6 point teaser. I'd consider Jets -3 with something else but the payoff drops with a 7 point teaser and I think the Jets take them on the short week.

C-Gold · 11-25-10, 08:27 PM

ADD

.5 units on the Jets -10

C-Gold · 11-27-10, 07:59 PM

ADD

Packers +2 ( 1 unit)
Steelers -7 ( 1 unit)
Steelers ML ( 5 units)
Pending Teaser: Cincy -4 WIN/Steelers -.5 ( 1 unit)

StackinGreen · 11-27-10, 09:01 PM

C,

I very much enjoyed your analysis. Hopefully you learned that at least with Brady, streaks aren't meant to be broken: He breaks them or he continues them. You have to be crazy to go against him currently, I'm interested in what they open up Jets/Pats at.

As for your picks, my two favorite teams are the Bills and Packers and I love your analysis. My brain has been telling me to stay away from GB/ATL all week, but it is on TV, and it IS a great game. I love Rodgers and I think you are right with the defensive angle. I'm leaning to them, but they aren't part of my official picks. You can see my plays this week on the thread I started.

The Bills have two rookies on O-line and Pitt does need to win, the bookies are gonna get washed by another "public" here: they aren't particularly good at stopping the run or stopping anyone, let alone Roethlisberger. The Bills pull out stops and look OK every once in a while but I just don't see it this week, I agree, I'm on the bigger than I was on New England on Thanksgiving actually 3x greater.

I also agree with the user above that it's better to just take Pack essentially ML or +2 vs. messing with the tease, which is too much risk for little relative gain.

Anyone else realize that when they hit teasers they basically drill it as a true parlay anyway? I seem to do that a lot. It gets me peace of mind but a whole lot less money ... haha, sometimes it protects me from the bad beat (like the StL/SF under 38.5 I had 2 weeks ago, just crazy that that went over).

Anyway, my best, check out my picks too, bud.

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 10:09 AM

Tom Brady can't lose? What about Cleveland?

Lions can't win? What about their awesome record vs the spread

Books gave everybody a piece of cheese to start the week off, the over ( my play) was the easy one

I was the one that said you might as well just take GB, the tease isn't worth the price to +8 or +9

When Pitt wins I'm probably taking the Bears + 3.5 or +4 too. It's a sucker bet

Bears only lost 1 game out of 10 by 4 or more points. The Cold/Grass/injured O-Line will slow down Convict

dchecks · 11-28-10, 10:51 AM

Hey Gold! So what is your final card??? Good Luck!

SecretGreene · 11-28-10, 11:29 AM

C-Gold thank you for taking time for the write-ups, Its because of you and others that ppl join SBR, Again thank you. I am new, and at this moment, I am learning to stop chasing and you have help me.

How do you post points in other ppl posts.

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 11:29 AM

Week 12
Lions + 7 ( 1 unit)
Patriots/Lions 2nd half over 25 ( 1 unit)
Jets -10 ( .5 units)
Packers +2 ( 1 unit)
Steelers -7 ( 1 unit)
Steelers ML ( 5 units)
Pending Teaser: Cincy -4 WIN/Steelers -.5 ( 1 unit)

I will also probably go with depending how the 1pm games go...
Bears +3.5
Colts -2.5
and maybe some 2nd halfs

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 02:19 PM

ADD

Green Bay @ Atlanta 2nd half OVER 24 ( 2.5 units)

herts9 · 11-28-10, 04:36 PM

with you on the colts tonight c-gold....love the spot that indy is in after losing last week..and they're at lucas oil...doesn't bode too well with rivers not being at home

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 08:22 PM

I'm only starting with .5 units on the Colts. Might make a bigger better bet at halftime.

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 08:37 PM

How's you guys like that bears write up in post #17 ?

It was a sucker bet if I ever saw one.

C-Gold · 11-28-10, 09:55 PM

ADD

Colts 2nd half -1 ( 1 unit)