After settling nothing in 59 minutes of head-to-head play in their regular-season meeting, it's only fitting that Washington and Tampa Bay will square off again in the wild-card round of the playoffs Saturday. The Buccaneers won the first meeting 36-35 thanks to a controversial two-point conversion run by Mike Alstott with 58 seconds remaining.
This time around, most sports books are listing Tampa Bay (11-5 straight up, 8-8 against the spread) as a 2 1/2-point favorite with a total of 37. Washington (10-6 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is plus 120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120).
The comeback win over the Redskins sparked Jon Gruden's team to a 6-2 finish down the stretch, capping the team's worst-to-first reversal in the standings of the NFC South. Also, it marked a coming-of-age moment, so to speak, for third-year quarterback Chris Simms, who threw for 279 yards against Washington, including a 30-yard connection with Edell Sheppard at crunch time that set up Alstott's heroics.
Gruden's squad clinched the division title thanks to last week's 27-13 win over New Orleans as a 13-point 'chalk.' The home victory improved Tampa Bay to 6-2 SU at home this year, 4-4 ATS. The Bucs have won four of their five home playoff games in the franchise's history.
Washington is back in the playoffs for the first time since 1999, when ironically, it lost a 14-13 decision at Tampa Bay in the NFC semifinals. The 'Skins did cover the number in that spot as 5 1/2-point underdogs.
Back to this year's team, one that enters the post-season playing outstanding football, as evidenced by five consecutive wins (4-0-1 ATS during that span). Joe Gibbs' team needed all of those victories, including last week's come-from-behind 31-20 win at Philadelphia.
Clinton Portis ran for 112 yards and a pair of touchdowns, but Sean Taylor was the man of the hour, at least for Washington backers, when he returned a fumble 39 yards for a score with 2:16 left to give the 'Skins the pointspread cover as eight-point favorites.
Mark Brunell went the distance under center despite suffering from a sprained knee sustained the previous week. His numbers were mediocre (9-for-25, 141 passing yards, 1/1 TD-INT ratio), but enough to get the job done nonetheless.
For the season, Brunell has seemingly gone back in time. Truth be told, his stellar play simply stressed to us how he hadn't been healthy in 2004, when his mobility was completely absent. This year, the southpaw completed 57.7 percent of his passes for 3,050 yards, posting a 23/10 touchdown-interception ratio.
Brunell has been solid, but the catalysts for the offense have been running back Clinton Portis and wide receiver Santana Moss. Portis has rushed for 1,516 yards and 11 touchdowns, averaging 4.3 yards per carry. He's also had success against the Bucs in a pair of career games, compiling rushing totals of 144 and 148.
Meanwhile, Moss has provided the big-play capability, stretching the field with deep routes that force defenses to respect the 'Skins' passing attack. Of course, this opens more running lanes for Portis. Moss has made 84 receptions for 1,483 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging an eye-opening 17.7 yards per grab.
The Washington offense will go up against the NFL's top-rated defense. Tampa Bay has allowed just 277.8 yards per game. This unit is led by a trio of perennial Pro-Bowlers, LB Derrick Brooks, DE Simeon Rice and CB Rhonde Barber. Rice has six sacks in his last four playoff games.
Tampa Bay is all about defense, but it has added a dynamic that wasn't even present for its Super Bowl run three seasons ago. We're talking about a power running game led by Rookie of the Year, Carnell "Cadillac" Williams. The Auburn product had sort of a hot-and-cold year, but after seemingly hitting a wall at mid-season, Williams has been outstanding down the stretch.
For the year, he has 290 carries for 1,178 yards, averaging 4.1 YPC. Williams has found paydirt just six times, but two of those scores came in the final minutes of comeback wins over Atlanta.
Simms has continued to improve with each game. His critics have never really doubted his skills, arm strength or throwing touch, but the knock on Simms has been toughness and performance in big games. Remember, the son of Phil Simms played poorly in college against Texas' nemesis, Oklahoma.
In addition, the "son of an NFL quarterback" stigma has always been present. But Simms has earned the respect of his teammates with his play this year, and perhaps moreso, with his toughness. In fact, he might've won over critics and peers the most by his play in a 28-0 loss at New England, when he stood strong in the pocket all day despite constant pressure, a thumb injury and seven sacks, not to mention a number of knockdowns (or grass licks, or snod snuggles, whichever you prefer).
Like Brunell has Moss to go deep, Simms has a big-play guy in Joey Galloway, who hasn't lost a step in the ladder stage of his career. Galloway has 83 catches for 1,287 yards and 10 TDs, an average of 15.5 yards per catch.
Joe Gibbs and Gruden both took plenty of criticism last season, but the coaching duo surprised many by guiding their respective teams to the post-season this year. Gibbs owns a 4-0 career record in the wild-card round, a 16-5 overall mark in the playoffs. Even better, he has a 57-18 record in (regular or post-season) games played after Dec. 1.
On the injury front, Tampa Bay WR Michael Clayton (32 receptions, 372 yards) is "out" with turf toe, while safety Jermaine Phillips (knee) is "questionable." As for the 'Skins, CB Shawn Springs is a question mark.
The 'over' is 5-3 for the Bucs at home, but they have seen the 'under' go 10-6 overall (7-1 on the road). Meanwhile, totals have been a complete wash for the 'Skins, 8-8 overall, 4-4 both at home and on the road. That said, the 'over' has hit in three straight Washington games.
Kickoff is slated for 4:30 p.m. Eastern with ABC providing television coverage.
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