but in the end, sometimes common sense will prevail.
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yes it will but the books always win in the end not the bettors. better to try and understand what they are doing then trying to go with the better team all the time. there is so much to this game then just trying to pick winners and looking at lines.Comment -
Lakerboy What are some of the things that they are trying to do besides take our money?Comment -
exactly, they want to drain us slowly so we'll keep feeding the machineComment -
This thread is so silly. If you understand football or any sport in general and know the concept of finding a "bargain" or "arbitrage" you will do fine in sports betting in the long run.
It's only the idiots that bet a millions games all the time every day or every week where they might as well just ship their bank roll to the bookies cause betting then becomes like trying to to swim upstream against a non-stop tidal wave.Comment -
So basically what you are saying is your (profit goal) = (% of Bankroll) x (# of Games)..... Therefore the fewer the games the more the wager increasing profits by reducing the juice?Comment -
Sounds about rightComment -
yeah that 2nd half was totally insane I thought NE would win the game but never saw anything like that comingComment -
hahaha...they score like 28 points in one quarter more like 7 mins..that's so dirty..hhahaahComment -
Did you get this out of a fortune cookie? And let me guess, by common sense, it means you won tonight. Is it ever common sense when you lose?
What is this....I finally won a game so now I'm going to get preachy night?Comment -
Really???????? I somewhat disagree with what you said above No Coin.
I am on UNDER like you last night, but I never though special team would make a significant factor in this game, BUT the numbers already say NE has better special team (they actually got 1 kick return for TD prior last night, Miami has 0).
Let ask this question, if next game Miami playing with a team that has equal or slightly in special team on paper. If the line came out block punt for 1 or something, would you want to take your chance with UNDER even with the line are favor the UNDER????Comment -
Of course you can't cap that. No one is saying you can cap that. But I don't think you needed to predict the kick return for a TD and blocked punt in order to decide for yourself that NE was the "correct" team to pick or MIA was the "correct" team to pick. TBH I don't think NE even needed those things to win the game last night. They had the heart when they came out in the 2nd half, they had the coaching, and the executed their plan well. The REAL question, is how confident would you say NE was that they would win this game when they left the locker room at half? Do you think the players on NE just knew they were going to kill it that half? (or at least a 'high' %-chance they thought they would win)?
I put correct in quotes, because there was a lot of talk about line movement and sharp money coming in on this game. I really don't know enough about how to interpret that information (still learning from readying some of LB's posts), but I found it strange that a lot of people saw the sharp money come in right before kickoff and basically said then and there "well, at least I was on the right side. Doesn't matter if they win or lose this now". I hear those words and I cringe to think that the late money instantly makes MIA > 50% to win the game. Please correct me if it does, but I find it hard that it would be that easy to say the team wins > 50% due to late money/line movement so go to Matchbook and throw down 5% of your BR on all late money teams, using Kelly and BRM and be a multi-millionaire in a few years.
I watched the game last night. I saw the incredible effort 120 seconds in with MIA returning the kickoff, I saw their defense hold NE to 6 points. I also saw what happened in the 2nd half and how NE came out storming and just crushed and demoralized a MIA team. Realistically, we don't get to watch this game 1000 times. We don't get to see who wins it in the "long-term". We can have our hypothesis and we can use all the tools available to us which have worked in the past to say we are right here 55% of the time on average. I'm fine with all that. (I'm not even necessarily saying NE was the right pick, just want more discussion. Want to learn from what we saw.)
Let's say God came down to earth and told you that MIA wins 90% of the time in this game (ie. the exact perfect true probability).... it would still be possible for NE to win (obviously, 10% of the time). And even further (with a distribution) that NE wins more frequently by 3 points then they do by 27. But there does exist some % of the time that given MIA wins 90% of the time, NE wins the game by 27 points. 0.0000001% or whatever. But it is there.
If we start to bring things closer to reality, let's say MIA should win 60% of the time there. There's still 40% chance NE wins and maybe 0.08% chance that they win by 27 points.
Did we hit that 0.08% chance and MIA was the "correct" pick? Or was NE 80% to win last night (true, correct probability) and we hit that maybe 5% chance its by 27 or more points? I don't really know this, and we never will, but follow me here: What I DO know is that given the outcome of what we saw last night (knowing how the game ended). There IS a greater chance that NE was the true correct team to pick, not MIA.
Just a thought experiment / discussion guys. Looking for all constructive views and opinions on this.Comment
